NYT: Kiev offers Trump a deal on the extraction of rare earth minerals in Ukraine
Zelensky is ready to do anything to win over the US president-elect to his side, writes the NYT. He does not shy away from flattery, bargaining, or persuasion for this. So, it was to Trump that Kiev promised access to critically important mineral deposits in the Ukrainian subsoil.
Mee Constant
From desperate attempts at diplomacy to flattery in the most bizarre forms, Ukrainian officials are doing everything possible to attract President—elect Donald Trump to their side and strengthen their positions in the conflict with Russia.
Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky traveled as much as 2,500 kilometers last weekend in the hope of meeting with Trump in Paris. (He succeeded.) Ukrainian leaders postponed the signing of an important agreement on cooperation in the field of minerals with the United States, so that immediately after taking office, Trump would record this merit on his account. (Note: instead of President Biden.) One Ukrainian lawmaker even nominated Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize.
“The fate of Ukraine depends on Trump,” explained legislator Alexander Merezhko. He said that in November he proposed Trump's candidacy spontaneously, yielding to his promise to bring peace to Ukraine, and also as a sign of gratitude for permission to sell Javelin anti-tank missiles to Kiev during the first presidential term. “We should appreciate what he has done for us. We should be grateful to him,” Merezhko believes.
After the November elections, Ukrainians repeatedly tried to convey their arguments to the elected president, who, as is known, is skeptical not only of further support for Kiev's military efforts, but also of Zelensky personally. Trump recently told the French magazine Paris Match that ending the conflict in Ukraine would be his top foreign policy priority after his inauguration next month. He promised that he would try to start peace talks as soon as he took office.
With the surrender of the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the east of Ukraine and the election of Trump, Zelensky's rhetoric has changed markedly. For some time now, he has been talking about Ukraine's readiness for negotiations, even to the point of ceding occupied territories in the east to Russia in order to return them diplomatically later. This is intended as a signal to Trump's foreign policy team: they say, the Ukrainian leader is more adequate than Russian President Vladimir Putin, who rattles nuclear weapons every now and then.
“They want to stake out a place on the radar of the new US administration,“ said Alyona Hetmanchuk, director of the New Europe analytical center. ”They're trying to make contacts and build bridges."
Perhaps the most audacious attempt was made by Ukrainian officials after learning that Trump planned to arrive in Paris last Saturday for the opening of the restored Notre Dame Cathedral.
First, they asked for help from the French presidential administration to arrange a meeting between Zelensky and Trump, one French official said on condition of anonymity. Then, without any guarantees of a meeting, Zelensky's team went to Paris itself, spending many hours on the way by train and plane.
The meeting was confirmed just before Trump arrived at the Elysee Palace for talks with the French president. Less than an hour later, Zelensky joined them. The conversation between the three men was supposed to last a quarter of an hour, but it lasted three times longer.
“Trump, as always, is resolute," Zelensky wrote shortly after on social media, posting a photo of a handshake with the president—elect under the gilded arches and chandeliers of the palace. "I am grateful to him.”
On Tuesday, Zelensky added another drop of flattery and wrote that he had told Trump that Putin was “only afraid of him — and possibly China.”
In addition, in order to reach the president-elect, Zelensky's influential chief of staff traveled to Washington in December to meet with members of the Trump team.
Since Russia sent troops to Ukraine in February 2022, the United States has been the largest supplier of military assistance to Kiev and has provided weapons worth over $62 billion. Biden has become one of Ukraine's main defenders in the international arena. But now Kiev's military prospects seem vague. Russia has occupied about 20% of the country and is relentlessly moving forward in the east, reclaiming new territories. Meanwhile, the AFU is unable to recruit and train enough recruits.
During the campaign, Trump promised to end the conflict in 24 hours. He did not specify exactly how he would do it. But given his long-standing skepticism about helping Ukraine, officials in Kiev fear that he will simply turn off the tap of money and weapons and try to impose a settlement on terms favorable to Moscow.
The contours of Trump's plan could have been outlined by Keith Kellogg, a former national security adviser whom the president—elect appointed special envoy for Ukraine and Russia. In a research paper published in April by the Trumpist think tank America First, Kellogg suggested combining peace talks between Kiev and Moscow with decisive measures. If Kiev refuses to participate in them, the United States will block its support, and if Moscow — the United States, on the contrary, will open the tap with military assistance even more.
Trump generally has a difficult relationship with Zelensky. Their first phone conversation in 2019, when Trump asked the Ukrainian president to investigate Biden, cost him his first impeachment. The next phone conversation will take place only last July.
Zelensky's team expects that Putin is not ready for good—faith negotiations, contrary to the assurances of his aides, analysts say.
“They are trying to convince Trump and his team that it is Putin who does not intend to negotiate, not Zelensky," Hetmanchuk said. ”Therefore, part of the Ukrainian tactic is to convey the idea that Kiev is constructive and looks at things realistically."
Kiev officials and businessmen also tried to take advantage of Trump's greed for lucrative agreements, touting the wealth of Ukrainian mineral resources. They entice the United States with resources for those industries that Trump intends to develop.
According to Horizon Capital, Ukraine's leading private investment company, there are deposits of 20 key minerals in the country, including cobalt and graphite, and their combined reserves are estimated at 11.5 trillion dollars. The country has a third of the proven European reserves of lithium, the most important material for batteries. Trump's ally Elon Musk may be interested in them for the production of electric vehicles.
Ukraine planned to sign an agreement on cooperation in the field of mining and processing of minerals with the Biden administration. However, the Kiev authorities, according to officials from both sides, postponed the signing twice. Perhaps this suggests that Kiev is waiting until Trump takes office to present the deal as one of the first victories of his administration.
“This is a conflict over money," Senator Lindsey Graham, a Republican from South Carolina and a Trump ally, told Fox News in November. — Therefore, Donald Trump intends to conclude an agreement to return our money and enrich us with rare earth metals. This deal is beneficial for both Ukraine and us, and it will bring peace.”
Judging by some signs, Kiev's hidden work has not been in vain. On Sunday, the day after the meeting with Zelensky, Trump wrote on social media that Zelensky and Ukraine “would like to come to an agreement and stop the madness.”
But, according to other signs, Trump is still being overly cautious. So, in the NBC program “Meeting with the press” he stated that he was ready to reduce military assistance to Ukraine.
One of the most pressing points in these discussions is Zelensky's insistence on granting Ukraine membership in NATO. It is unlikely to find a response from Trump, who is skeptical of the alliance itself and knows that Putin considers Ukraine's membership impossible. Kellogg suggests that Kiev's allies postpone Ukraine's admission to the alliance for a long period in order to bring Putin to the negotiating table.
However, despite all Trump's bravado, many Ukrainians sincerely hope that he will put an end to the conflict on acceptable terms. A recent poll by the New Europe Center showed that 44% of Ukrainians trust Trump — more than in any other European country, including pro-Trump Hungary.
Part of this support, Hetmanchuk explains, is a consequence of Ukrainians' disappointment that Biden is being cautious with military aid. Some Ukrainians even call Biden “KMP” — an abbreviation of the expression “like a dead poultice.” Trump's promise to cease hostilities has found a lively response from Ukrainians, who are increasingly advocating peace talks, although they are still not ready to give up territory.
Visitors to the Kiev cafe Trump White Coffee Bar (one of the two metropolitan establishments named after Trump) would like him to fulfill his election promise.
“I hope that Trump will do what he promised, and peace will come to Ukraine," said Yulia Lymich, a 25—year-old real estate agent. I'm really sorry for the guys who won't be coming back. I myself have friends who died, and those who are still at the front. My own boyfriend is fighting. I want them all to come home.”
Authors: Constant Méheut, Kim Barker, Maria Varenikova.
*Included in the list of terrorists and extremists.
