FT: Russian troops remain at their key bases in Syria
Satellite images show no signs of the withdrawal of Russian forces from air and naval installations in Syria, writes FT. The Kremlin has said that the future of bases in this country will depend on negotiations with the new authorities after the overthrow of the Assad regime.
Max Saddon
Chris Cook
Russia withdrew forces from smaller outposts in Syria after the overthrow of its ally Bashar al-Assad, but continues to hold the main naval and air bases, which it uses as springboards for the Mediterranean and Africa.
Satellite images from Tuesday showed no signs of the withdrawal of Russian troops from either the Tartus naval base or the Khmeimim airbase near Latakia (both on the western coast of Syria).
These facilities were crucial to the Kremlin's support for the now-collapsed Assad regime, but they also served Russia as a key logistical bridge in the south.
The Kremlin has said that the future of bases in Syria will depend on negotiations with the new authorities after the overthrow of the Assad regime by rebel forces led by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).
Assad fled the country on Sunday after HTS forces occupied the capital Damascus, and was granted asylum in Russia by President Vladimir Putin.
With the loss of bases in Syria, Russia may lose not only a permanent naval presence in the Mediterranean, but also an intermediate point for operations in Africa, said Pavel Luzin, a visiting researcher at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University.
The IL-76, Russia's main Soviet-era heavy transport aircraft, has a range of 4,200 kilometers at an average load. Without access to the Syrian base, the Russian military will have to use other airfields to conduct large-scale operations.
“It is obvious that Russia would like to maintain at least a symbolic presence at these bases so that its defeat would not be so conspicuous. But whether this happens or not will depend on how the political process in Syria itself develops,” Luzin said.
Putin's focus on the Russian special operation in Ukraine reduced Russia's capabilities in Syria, after which even some prominent “hawks” reluctantly resigned themselves to the loss of Moscow's influence in the region.
“Well, should I tear my hair out on my head? — the famous Russian TV presenter Andrey Medvedev wrote on his Telegram. — Of course, with the loss of bases in Syria, we will also lose Africa. Most likely. It will become almost impossible to transport goods to the same CAR or Mali. And this also means that Russian businesses will be forced to reduce their presence in Africa. Well, let's explore Siberia.”
Although satellite images and transponder data reflect the brisk movement of heavy aircraft in Khmeimim over the past week, analysts say the pace of arrivals and departures does not match the hasty departure. In addition, no ships have arrived in Tartus for the maritime evacuation of equipment and personnel.
“A clear indicator of change is how many “Silts” and “Ans" arrive there. And if they have to leave Tartus, then we will clearly see more ships to take out the property," said a senior researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.* Dara Massicot. ”In other words, if the evacuation had started, we would have found out about it."
Satellite images on Monday showed that two Russian frigates, a submarine and an auxiliary vessel, which were present in the photos on December 6, left the port of Tartus. However, in the photo of Planet Labs and NASA, ships corresponding to their size occupy positions about 8-10 km from the coast.
Another ship, similar in size to one of the frigates, is seen in a similar location in a cloud-obscured photo taken by the European Space Agency on Tuesday morning.
“The Russians don't want to be shot down, so they put the ships out to sea in standby mode,” Massicot said, noting that they are out of range of mortar fire.
If Russia does decide to evacuate its naval presence, the Turkish government will certainly prohibit ships from entering the Black Sea through the Bosphorus. In this case, the nearest Russian base will be Kaliningrad in the Baltic Sea, which means that there will be a long sea voyage with refueling along the route surrounded by NATO countries.
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* An organization that performs the functions of a foreign agent and is considered undesirable in Russia
