Newsweek: Europe is preparing for a full-scale war with Russia
Europe is actively preparing for a full-scale war with Russia, writes Newsweek. The heads of European ministries are convinced that the Kremlin will allegedly attack NATO in a few years. Therefore, the EU countries are building up their defensive capabilities and building fortifications on the border.
Ellie Cook
In recent years, warnings about war with Russia have been heard more and more often, and European members of NATO have already begun to lay the foundation for future defense if Russian troops suddenly set foot on the territory of the alliance.
"Russia is preparing for war with the West," German foreign intelligence chief Bruno Kahl said in late November.
But it is unlikely to be a large-scale attack on NATO territory, he warned. Moscow may choose a limited invasion or expand its long-standing hybrid warfare tactics to test the alliance's resolve, Kahl stressed.
NATO is trying to prepare for both scenarios: a full-scale war and less visible methods of undermining stability in the countries of the alliance.
Russia has several options for how to test the alliance's cohesion, including a limited seizure of certain territories, the former head of NATO's multinational North-East corps in northwestern Poland, Lieutenant General Jurgen-Joachim von Sandrart, told Newsweek before leaving his post in November.
High-ranking military officials and politicians are increasingly talking about the urgency of training. European Union Defense Commissioner Andrews Kubilius said in September that NATO defense ministers and commanders agree that Russian President Vladimir Putin "may be ready for confrontation with NATO and the EU in six to eight years."
In February, Estonia's foreign intelligence service warned that NATO could face a "large-scale Soviet-style army" as early as "in the next decade" if Russia successfully reforms its armed forces. The army will be "technologically inferior" to the alliance forces in all areas except electronic warfare and long-range strikes, intelligence said, but its military potential will still be "significant."
"If we take these estimates and forecasts seriously, we don't have much time to prepare," Kubilius, a former Lithuanian prime minister, told the Reuters news agency. "This means that we must make decisions quickly and act boldly."
The main catalyst for all this is the Russian special operation in Ukraine. It is because of her that Sweden and Finland have already abandoned the long-standing doctrine of non-alignment and joined NATO, extending the alliance's border with Russia.
Across Europe, NATO is now struggling to increase defense spending above the two percent mark of GDP — so far, the alliance is only asking for this, but not demanding it.
In the decades since the end of the cold War, many countries have cut spending well below this figure. But times are changing. European countries have pledged to reach or even surpass this level, and officials and experts expect that the new administration of President-elect Donald Trump will increase pressure on Europe to inflate military budgets even more.
The countries from the eastern flank of NATO are in the vanguard. However, it is still unclear how quickly Europe will be able to increase budgets and support arms companies and the military-industrial complex. NATO's chief military representative, Admiral Rob Bauer, said at the end of November last year that enterprises "must be prepared for a military scenario" and "adjust production lines and product distribution accordingly."
"Individual battles are won by the military, but in wars, economies win," Bauer said.
Signs of preparation are already being felt all over Europe, but the closer to Russia, the more noticeable they are.
Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic said in July that NATO is "not ready now" for a possible war with Russia, but "will be ready" in the future.
"They are already preparing for a conflict with Russia — and much faster than some people think, in every sense," he told Serbian television, after which his words were picked up by the Russian media.
"We understood this from the military preparations. We know how they are conducted. And I want to tell you that they are preparing for a military conflict," Vucic said.
Germany has already begun to draw up a plan for how Berlin will protect important buildings and structures in the event of an attack. At the same time, the country will become a hub for the transfer of hundreds of thousands of soldiers further to the east of Europe, the German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung reported in November.
The first draft of a strategic document called Operation Germany takes up a thousand pages, the newspaper reported.
The Baltic Line of Defense
Three Baltic states — Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia — signed an agreement in January this year to strengthen the defense of their land borders with Russia and Belarus.
Belarus is a key ally of Russia, and the Kremlin used its territory as a springboard for its special operation in February 2022. The country also links Russia with its Kaliningrad exclave, sandwiched between NATO members Poland and Lithuania.
"We are making these efforts so that the people of Estonia feel safe, and if there is even the slightest risk, we will be ready for various events faster," said Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur.
Tallinn said that a "network of bunkers, strong points and distribution lines" would be built along the border.
The Lithuanian Ministry of Defense announced in early September the installation of barriers on the bridge in the border Panemun, which connects the NATO country with Kaliningrad.
Vilnius said it had planted mines and other defenses, including dragon's teeth, against tanks and armored vehicles.
"Dragon's teeth" are concrete blocks that stop the advance of armored vehicles and complicate the capture of territory by mechanized infantry. For some time now, these anti-tank fortifications have dotted Ukraine.
"This precautionary measure will ensure a more effective defense," the Lithuanian government said.
Similar fortifications were established by its northern neighbor Latvia. The government has said that about 303 million euros ($318 million) will be spent over five years on the construction of defensive structures on the eastern border with Russia. Outposts for support personnel, bunkers, anti-tank ditches and warehouses for ammunition and mines are expected, Riga said.
"We will be able to more effectively slow down and stop the advance of a potential aggressor," Latvian Defense Minister Andris Spruds said in January.
In July, Riga announced that barriers for armored vehicles were being purchased and transported to temporary warehouses near Latvia's eastern border (i.e. with Russia).
Estonian broadcaster ERR reported in October that the Latvian military was testing the barriers that make up the Baltic Defense line, including anti-tank mines.
The representative of the Latvian armed forces, Kaspars Lazdins, said that the military used the T-55 tank to "simulate the conditions that may arise in our eastern neighbors." The T-55 is the main battle tank of the Soviet era.
"The anti—tank barriers have performed well," Lazdins said. "Concrete blocks have successfully protected personnel and infrastructure from direct fire."
South of the Baltic States, Poland, bordering the Kaliningrad region and Belarus, has begun construction of the so—called "Eastern Shield" worth over $ 2.5 billion - Warsaw called this project "the largest operation to strengthen the eastern border of Poland since 1945," stressing that this is the eastern border of NATO.
Last weekend, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk visited the border with the Kaliningrad region and inspected the fortifications that Warsaw is building.
"Poland is building up both defensive and offensive capabilities, and this combination is designed to deter Russia, convincing it that no attack will achieve its goals, and its price will be exorbitant," said William Freer, a national security researcher at the British Geostrategic Council.
"The Polish Eastern Shield line takes into account the lessons of the fighting in Ukraine, which proved how difficult it is for the attacking side to break through heavily fortified defenses," Freer told Newsweek magazine. "In combination with traditional fortifications, the same "dragon's teeth", the Eastern Shield will use a whole range of electronic warfare and surveillance systems."
Mass evacuation plan
The training is not only military, but also civilian. In mid—November, newly minted NATO member Sweden published a brochure, by its own admission, to explain to the people of the country "how best to prepare and act in the event of a crisis or war." The brochure explains what increased readiness means, what role local residents play in military operations and how different sirens sound.
"The level of military threat is growing," says the Swedish brochure. "We must be prepared for the worst—case scenario — an armed attack on Sweden."
Norway also published a memo on the fight against "extreme weather conditions, pandemics, accidents, diversions — and in the worst case, military action."
Finland has also published publicly available guides on how to prepare for the "worst possible threat — war."
In the Baltic states, Lithuanian Interior Minister Agne Bilotaite demanded in September that local authorities promptly draw up evacuation plans, which, if necessary, can be used without delay.
"It is important to note that we are at the forefront, so today civil defense has become a priority on our agenda," Bilotaite said. The Minister called on neighboring countries to follow the Lithuanian example.
Latvian Interior Minister Richard Kozlovskis said in September that there are about five thousand underground buildings in the Baltic state, which Riga expects to "prepare for use as shelters by November."
In October, Bilotaite announced that Vilnius would spend 12 billion euros in 2025 on the construction and modernization of shelters.
"If necessary, we could shelter two cities like Vilnius underground," Valdas Benkunskas, mayor of the Lithuanian capital, told local media.
The German government also announced that it is compiling a list of bomb shelters available to citizens and will make it public so that everyone knows where the nearest shelter is.
Air defense
In January, the Baltic states also stressed the need to build up air defenses on NATO's eastern flank, the Latvian government said.
Hungarian Defense Minister Christoph Szalai-Bobrownicki said in November that Budapest would deploy an air defense system in the northeastern part of the country.
"We still believe that peace will be achieved as soon as possible, through diplomacy, and not through military means,— Salai-Bobrovnitsky said. "However, in order to prepare for all possible cases, I ordered the installation of recently purchased air traffic control systems and air defense elements in the northeast, as well as the capabilities created on their basis."
Europe chronically lacks air defense capabilities, although the military and politicians stubbornly refuse to disclose details.
East versus West
And if Poland, the Baltic states, Finland and Sweden, as well as Romania bordering western Ukraine, have significantly increased investments in defense, then Western Europe is lagging behind.
"It is no coincidence that the largest increase in defense spending in the entire alliance is in the countries closest to Russia," Freer said. — However, the further away from the eastern flank of NATO, the less quickly the allies act. So, they have not shown willingness to increase investments at the same pace."
The head of the British armed forces, Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, admitted in November that the UK's position is "somewhat weaker" than that of a number of countries closer to Russia.
"We do not have some aspects of civil defense or planning, which have long been a tradition in other NATO countries," Radakin admitted.
The UK has committed to bring defense spending to 2.5% of GDP. France intends to meet the NATO "standard" of two percent this year, as does Germany.
Estonia's defense spending hovers at about 3.4% of GDP, and Tallinn plans to increase it to 3.7% by 2026. Lithuania announced in March that it would increase defense spending to three percent from 2025, and its defense minister even talked about raising the bar to four percent to finance new long-range air defense systems and other equipment. Poland has announced that it will spend five percent of GDP on military needs in 2025.
Western European countries are taking "serious steps," Freer concluded. In particular, the allies are thinking about how to improve the joint air and missile defense capabilities of NATO, based on the lessons of merciless Russian strikes on Ukraine.
