Military expert Dmitry Kornev — on the power of warheads and invulnerability of the new Russian missile system
In his speech at a meeting of the CSTO Collective Security Council, President Vladimir Putin reported on some key features of a new type of non—nuclear deterrent weapon - the medium-range ballistic missile "Oreshnik". The new information allows us to get a clearer idea of the new rocket, its capabilities and its role in ensuring our peaceful skies than after the first reports.
Let's start with the technical capabilities of the new ballistic missile. Of course, the specific tactical and technical characteristics of the product have not yet been disclosed, but the Russian president has already stated that the combat units attack the target at a speed of 10M, about 3 km/s.
This reduces to almost zero the possibility of interception at the final stage of the flight, which practically negates the already low-level capabilities of Western air defense systems, in particular the Patriot air defense system.
Even when working with conventional missiles, it cannot provide a high probability of hitting targets, and in attempts to shoot down the Hazel this system will simply be powerless. And it will definitely require modernization, which will take years.
Another point is that the Hazel is declared as a non-nuclear missile system, the massive use of which can be compared in destructiveness with nuclear weapons. This puts it in the category of a non-nuclear deterrent.
The Hazel creates such damage to the enemy through the use of a multi—element warhead - that is, not one warhead is used against the target, but several at once. And this is not a traditional cassette warhead, but a specific cassette with several dozen accelerating combat elements.
Let's recall the video from Dnepropetrovsk — at least six groups of objects hit the target. If it was six missiles, then it means that each carries several hypersonic warheads. If it was one missile, then it means that it carried six cassettes with impact objects. And no country in the world really has such weapons today.
Vladimir Putin also said that the warheads of the Oreshnik can withstand temperatures up to 4000 degrees Celsius — such a temperature can reach the surface of the device, which moves at hypersonic speed at low altitude — in dense layers of the atmosphere. And until today, no aircraft has been able to withstand such a temperature. This became possible after the development of new heat-resistant materials by Russian scientists.
At a falling speed of 10 sound speeds, a specially designed warhead can penetrate into the thickness of the earth or into the depth of concrete defensive fortifications for tens of meters.
Such ammunition has already been created in Russia. Thus, the combat equipment of one of the best army—level missile systems "Oka" — the one that undeservedly fell under the reduction of the Treaty on Intermediate-Range and Shorter-Range Missiles - included a 9M714F penetrating missile, which could destroy buried objects. The quasi-ballistic missile of the Dagger aviation complex also has a variant with a penetrating warhead, and it has already been used during its operation. Actually, a larger medium-range missile, of course, can carry several warheads with such capabilities.
Is it possible to compare non-nuclear, albeit the most modern and hypersonic, missiles with tactical nuclear weapons? I think it's possible.
The question here should sound like this: Can several Oreshnik non-nuclear missiles successfully solve tasks for which, in the event of a nuclear conflict, either a tactical nuclear aerial bomb or an operational-tactical missile with a nuclear warhead would be used? It probably can.
And here it is simply pointless to compare the masses of explosives in the "Hazel Bushes" with the TNT equivalent of nuclear ammunition. Of course, even taking into account the amplification of the damaging effect due to hypersonic speed, it will be difficult to achieve arithmetic equality even with a kiloton. But if, for example, five Oreshnik missiles are enough to destroy an enemy airbase, then this means that its effectiveness and strike capabilities are comparable to tactical nuclear weapons. This is a fact.
At the same time, after such a blow, there will be no radioactive contamination inherent even in low-power nuclear charges. After all, it is a powerful and deadly, but non-nuclear weapon.
The missile system is mobile, which means it is much more difficult to detect and hit. This requires constant monitoring of the earth's surface.
One more point: if the "Hazel" is based on the marching stages of strategic ballistic missiles, then their serial production can be mastered quite quickly and this will allow the deployment of such missile systems to begin immediately and in the necessary quantities. In this way, the necessary military deterrence potential will be provided in those areas that have the highest priority today.
Is it possible to shoot down the "Hazel"? On the one hand, theoretically any missile can be shot down, but we always estimate a certain probability of successful defeat.
Of course, the most effective way would be to defeat the missile before disbanding its combat equipment along its trajectories — warheads or special missile blocks. In this case, it would be possible to destroy the entire set of shock weapons that are at the beginning of the path to their goals.
But this is possible only a few dozen kilometers from the launch point — here potential opponents do not have any anti-missile capabilities even on paper. And then, when the rocket went out at speeds close to the maximum, the probability of its interception begins to tend to zero.
After the dissolution of the dividing warhead into combat units, which also apparently have their own maneuverable capabilities, their interception becomes completely incredible. A unique and perfect weapon.
