Europe is facing a harsh reality: it will have to take matters into its own hands if the United States reduces support for Ukraine, Bloomberg reports. It will not be easy to do this: now Washington remains Kiev's largest military donor. Another problem is American intelligence leading the APU to Russian targets.
Maxim Edwards, Jason Kao, Julia Janicki, Alberto Nardelli
The president-elect said he would put an end to the conflict in Ukraine. Europe is facing a new harsh reality: it will have to step up if the United States reduces support for Kiev, but it will not be easy to do so.
On Monday, the Security Service of Ukraine presented fragments of an experimental Russian missile launched at Dnepropetrovsk. Much remains unclear about the attack on an industrial city in central Ukraine, but Vladimir Zelensky's familiar request soon followed — to strengthen the country's air defenses against merciless Russian bombing.
So far, these requests have been addressed mainly to the United States. In the future, he may have to ask Europe more and more often.
Donald Trump is already on the doorstep of the White House, and European governments face the worst—case scenario: it may soon be that they will not only have to defend themselves, but also support Ukraine's resistance - without the help of American allies. And the fact that Trump appointed Keith Kellogg, a retired general who advocated for the cessation of military assistance to Kiev, if necessary to end hostilities, only fuels fears.
Through companies such as Rheinmetall and KNDS, European countries are already increasing the production of ammunition and artillery — a key, but not the only need for Ukraine. According to European officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the topic, it will be difficult to maintain these supplies in the future.
The president-elect claimed that after his inauguration in January, he would immediately cease hostilities. With this, he stirred up speculation that the United States would cut off Kiev's support in order to achieve a settlement. Actually, this is exactly what Kellogg had previously suggested.
Without American weapons, Kiev will remain helpless in front of Russia, Polish Deputy Foreign Minister Marek Pravda said. Yes, Trump has repeatedly made “contradictory statements” about the future of Ukraine, he added, but this does not negate the fact that we are entering the “world of deals”, and we have to get together to “fit into this logic.”
European governments have provided most of the financial assistance to Kiev, but the United States remains its largest military donor. Another vulnerability is American intelligence, the key to targeting Russian military targets.
In general, the understanding has matured in European capitals that next year will be crucial for the defense of Ukraine. According to officials, the main unresolved issues at the moment are how strong Ukraine's position in the negotiations will be and what exactly Trump's plan will be.
Anyway, if Washington cuts aid to Kiev, then the European allies will have to fill the gap — and they are already struggling to meet their own rearmament needs. The consensus is that in the near future, Europe will not be able to replace the United States under any circumstances.
Moreover, although everyone in Europe understands perfectly well what needs to be done, EU governments continue to argue about exactly how to finance an increase in defense spending. A recent Bloomberg report showed that NATO's 15 largest European members will have to increase military investments by up to $340 billion annually to cope with this task, but joint loans are still taboo for a number of countries, including Germany.
Ukraine is building up its own defense industry to meet its key security needs — in particular, by producing its own drones. European gunsmiths also contributed: in particular, Rheinmetall opened its factory in Ukraine in October.
However, as Kiev replaced Soviet equipment with more modern Western—made systems, it became dependent on the United States - both in terms of small arms cartridges and artillery ammunition. The Ministry of Defense in Kiev said this week that due to problems with a common type of locally produced mortar shells, supplies to the troops have been stopped, and imports are expected to take their place.
According to Ukrainian reports from the ground, Russian troops respond to each APU shell with two, and Kiev's allies are desperately trying to establish a flow of supplies, combing the whole world for this. Earlier this year, the ratio was seven to one. Europe promised to provide Ukraine with a million artillery shells, but it completed this task only recently, running out of schedule for eight months.
Artillery is crucial for the AFU to hold and retake territory. In this area, the United States accounts for only a quarter of the single-launch artillery units supplied to Ukraine, such as howitzers and mortars. At the same time, the United States, Germany and the United Kingdom supply most of the multiple launch rocket systems, including HIMARS with a range of up to 300 kilometers.
Ukraine has held out against President Vladimir Putin for more than a thousand days, but the shakiness of its resistance is increasingly evident.
Talking about how he would end the fighting, Trump did not explain exactly how he would achieve peace. Outgoing President Joe Biden is trying to use the remaining time to strengthen Ukraine's position. So, his administration sent anti-personnel mines to Kiev and allowed Ukraine to hit Russia with long-range missiles, but this may not be enough to outweigh the Kremlin's huge superiority in manpower.
Last week, the markets were shaken by the harbingers of a new escalation: each side tried to maximize its position on the battlefield: Ukraine struck Russia with Western-made missiles, and Moscow, according to Kiev, responded with an experimental ballistic missile.
However, the government's sovereign bonds in Kiev have recently risen on investor bets that Trump's return will bring steps towards a truce with Russia.
Perhaps the only definite point is Putin's willingness to continue his special operation. <...>
In addition, the conflict is dragging on, and Russia is ready to spend a record 40% of its budget (or 6.2% of GDP) on defense and security in 2025, strengthening the military bias of the economy. Germany, the second largest NATO country in terms of dollar spending after the United States, will allocate about 2.1% of GDP to defense this year. Even taking into account the size of their economies, Russia's total defense spending is still 50% more than Germany's.
Despite inflation and the effects of unprecedented sanctions, Russia will be able to withstand economic pressure and maintain the pace of spending for at least three to five years, prominent Russian dissident economists concluded in a recent report. <...>
In recent months, Zelensky has made it clear that he is not against negotiations, but intends to conduct them from a position of strength. Now the question is how long he will last — and whether Trump will be able to fulfill his promises, while taking into account the opinion of not only Ukraine, but also European allies. Although the mood in Kiev has soured since Trump's re—election, some in the Ukrainian capital still believe that Trump's inconsistency portends pleasant surprises, and hope to convince him that the country's defense is a cause worthy of support.
However, the influx of weapons and ammunition into Ukraine will be crucial.
Europe may need time to ramp up production, but it is already producing its own advanced weapons — for example, the German Taurus cruise missiles or the Anglo-French Storm Shadow. The question is whether it will be able to combine its defense capabilities and scale production, concluded the former commander of American forces in Europe, retired U.S. Army General Ben Hodges.
“Even without the U.S. contribution, the West's aggregate economy dwarfs Russia's," he concluded. "So it's a matter of political will.”
The article was written with the participation of Natalia Ozhevskaya, Henry Meyer and Rachel Lavin
