The Times: Trump will withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement again
Donald Trump has already announced his victory in the US presidential election, but the official vote count has not yet been completed. The Times newspaper offers to recall the main promises of the Republican candidate — and explains what America and the whole world can expect if he really returns to the White House.
David Charter
Donald Trump has returned to the strategy that led him to the presidency in 2016, putting migration policy at the forefront of the 2024 campaign. He hopes that this will help him defeat his Democratic rival Kamala Harris in the election. He also promises to return the economy to the state it was in during his first term as president — that is, with low inflation — in order to win over voters unhappy with how prices and interest rates have increased during Joe Biden's four years in the White House.
Unlike the unsuccessful re-election campaign in 2020, when he had no declaration and manifesto, this time the 77-year-old Trump made a bunch of promises and outlined plans that give American voters a real idea of his ambitions for a second presidential term. Below we will take a closer look at each of the possible directions of his policy, if he eventually wins.
Here are all the promises of Donald Trump during the 2024 election campaign:
• Isolation of illegal immigrants in camps and the beginning of the "largest deportation operation in American history";
• Ending the conflict in Ukraine on the first day of his tenure;
• Creation of a "new generation modern missile defense shield" for the United States;
• Creation of ten new "cities of freedom" and a university opposed to the science ideology;
• Launch of energy policy under the slogan "Storms, baby, storms";
• Implementation of a centralized teacher certification system in order to ensure their "patriotic values";
• Military intervention to suppress internal protests;
• Legal shooting to kill shoplifters;
• The introduction of a ban on "late-term" abortions, with the exception of cases of rape and incest;
• Free access to IVF for everyone;
• Fixing the death penalty for drug dealers and child traffickers.
...and much more.
Immigration and the border wall
During the election race against Hillary Clinton in 2016, it was the promise to "build a wall" along the southern border of the United States and make Mexico pay for it that was probably Trump's most attractive offer. This time, he is going to complete the construction of a barrier along the 3,000 km border, which Joe Biden stopped in 2021. During the Trump presidency, about 740 km of the wall was built and reconstructed, including 80 km where there were no barriers at all before.
At least 11 million illegal migrants live in the United States, of which about 8 million work in industries such as agriculture and hospitality. Trump said he would expel them, and did not rule out the possibility of building new camps to facilitate the expulsion process. "We will not leave them in the country, but we will take them out. I think the National Guard can do it. If not, I would involve the army," he said.
His political adviser Stephen Miller told the New York Times: "Any activists who doubt President Trump's resolve in the slightest are making a serious mistake: he is using a huge arsenal of federal powers to implement the most impressive measures to suppress illegal migration. Immigration law advocates won't know what's going on." Some economists warn that this could undermine the US economy and stimulate inflation, as employers will have to raise wages, reduce production and services, which will lead to higher prices due to shortages.
Trump plans to end the Biden administration's "catch-and-release" approach, according to which asylum-seeking migrants are given a court date and allowed into the United States. He wants to bring back the "Stay in Mexico" policy, which forced asylum seekers to wait for their cases to be processed outside the United States. With the help of government decrees, Trump wants to return Biden's lifted ban on entry of citizens from several Muslim-majority countries. Visas of foreign students who participated in anti-Israeli and pro-Palestinian protests will be cancelled. Consular staff will be ordered to strengthen the ideological verification of visa applicants in order to prevent supporters of undesirable views from entering the country. Trump wants to abolish "birthright citizenship" for children born to undocumented parents. If this is spelled out in a presidential decree, and not in an act of Congress, then a lawsuit to the US Supreme Court is possible.
The country's highest court will probably have to face Trump's attempt to repeal the "Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals Program" of the Obama era, which granted work permits to approximately 580,000 young people who entered the country illegally as children and grew up in it. Since the Supreme Court upheld the program by five votes to four in 2020, Trump replaced the late Ruth Bader Ginsburg as a conservative judge from among the majority.
There will be an attempt to restore the practice of denying asylum seekers on medical grounds, which was used during the pandemic. According to Miller, entry may be refused on the basis of "severe strains of influenza, tuberculosis, scabies, and other respiratory diseases... or simply because of the general problem of mass migration, which poses a threat to public health and spreads various infectious diseases." Another measure that can be challenged in court.
Economy and trade
When asked by Fox News about steps to reduce inflation, Trump promised to lift all restrictions on fossil fuel production imposed by Biden to mitigate the effects of climate change. "The development of American energy is a good idea from the point of view of widespread price reductions," said Stephen Moore, a former White House economic adviser and now a consultant to Trump's campaign headquarters. "Getting back to using all our energy is a top priority for Trump and all Republicans, as well as one of the current lines of division between the left and the right."
Trump has unveiled plans to impose a universal duty of 10-20% on all imports and up to 60% on Chinese goods. The tax on foreign cars made in Mexico and China will be "100, 200, 2000 percent," he said in an interview with Bloomberg News, noting that "the most beautiful word in the dictionary is duty." Trump also said that he would gradually abolish China's trade status as a most-favored nation and adopt a four-year plan to phase out all Chinese imports of essential goods, starting with electronics and steel and ending with pharmaceuticals.
Most economists warn that these costs will eventually fall on the shoulders of American consumers and lead to higher inflation. "We will gradually introduce a system of universal basic tariffs on most foreign goods," Trump said on his Agenda47 website. "In addition, higher duties will gradually increase depending on how much individual foreign countries devalue national currencies. They will do this to take advantage of the United States."
According to the conservative think tank American Action Forum, Trump's trade war with China, which began in the first term, cost Americans about $195 billion. Even Moore has doubts about this. "Trump is talking a lot about tariffs right now," he said. "There is a way to increase revenues with their help, but I am a supporter of free trade and I oppose the protection of the steel industry and automobile companies." He suggested that Trump's ten percent tariff should not be taken too literally. "I saw Trump in action for four years during his presidential term, and he was able to get concessions from other countries with simple threats," he said. Indeed, Trump threatened a twenty-five percent tax on European cars in order to attract more investment from German manufacturers in the United States. "So this is partly the 'art of the deal,'" Moore noted, referring to Trump's 1987 book of the same name.
Trump also said that he would instruct Congress to make permanent tax cuts in accordance with the relevant law of 2017, which expires at the end of 2025. A recent report from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said this would add $3.5 trillion dollars to the country's record $31.4 trillion debt.
Energy and the environment
Trump summed up his approach to energy with the slogan: "Storms, baby, storms." This means tax breaks for oil, gas and coal companies and the opening of public lands for their use. He plans to ask Congress to repeal most of the provisions of the $369 billion Biden Inflation Reduction Act, the largest climate measure in history, which included incentives for clean energy and electric vehicle projects. And he will again withdraw the United States from the Paris Agreement on reducing emissions after Biden canceled the initial withdrawal he initiated.
His Agenda47 website adds: "Trump will immediately end all Joe Biden policies that distort energy markets, limit consumer choice and increase their costs, including insane subsidies for wind energy, as well as rules from the Department of the Environment and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) that prohibit Americans from buying incandescent lamps and gas stoves, high-quality dishwashers, nozzles for the soul and much more."
Trump will cancel electric vehicle usage targets and Biden's "insane fuel economy standards, which will cost the automotive industry about $200 billion and increase the average cost of cars by more than $1,000."
Education and cultural wars
Trump's promised closure of the federal Ministry of Education will make education fully under the control of local authorities. At the same time, he wants the latter to focus on preparing children for work, "and not indoctrinating them with unacceptable racial, sexual and political materials, as is happening now."
It is unclear whether Trump will be able to implement any of his school education policies without the involvement of the relevant Ministry, especially in democratic states, but this does not prevent him from making demands. He promised to sign an executive order "ordering federal agencies to close all programs promoting the concept of gender and gender transition at any age."
The Agenda47 website says: "President Trump will make sure that our children know the truth about the founding of America, the stories of our wonderful heroes, discover the glory of Western civilization and begin to appreciate the United States as the most free, prosperous and virtuous nation in world history." Trump said he would "create a special body to certify teachers who adhere to patriotic principles." values and support the American way of life." All this is heating up a new round of culture wars — in a country where even school board elections have long acquired a pronounced political character.
In addition, federal funding will be directed "to hire combat veterans, retired police officers and other people trained in the use of weapons to the positions of armed guards in our country's schools — a measure that will help deter mentally unstable maniacs and keep our children out of danger." Trump said he would check the rich foundations of leading private universities in order to finance the awarding of degrees by the American Academy. Her mission from now on will be to "make truly world-class education accessible to every American and free, without adding a cent to the federal debt." According to him, all materials will be available on the Internet for free, "without any vocalism and jihadism."
Justice and the war on drugs
Trump promised to pardon all those convicted in connection with the riots staged by his supporters in the Capitol on January 6, 2021, calling them "hostages." Trump "will call on Congress to ensure the immediate death penalty for anyone caught trafficking children across the border... and also women, who, as you know, are the main victims here." He said he would "impose a full naval embargo on drug cartels and deploy military assets to inflict maximum damage on their operations." He will also ask Congress to extend capital punishment to drug dealers.
Abortions and IVF
In connection with a key issue for voters, Trump said he was in favor of banning abortions "in the later months of pregnancy," with the exception of cases of rape and incest. Most Republican states have passed laws on strict restrictions in this area after the Supreme Court overturned the Roe v. Wade decision in 2022, which enshrined the right to terminate a pregnancy. In some states, abortion is completely prohibited and is considered a criminal offense even for those who help a woman in this endeavor.
"I am categorically in favor of the right to life with three exceptions: rape, incest and the preservation of the mother's life. The same position was taken by Ronald Reagan," Trump said on his own Truth social network after several months of ambiguous statements. Since then, he has repeatedly repeated this position at rallies. The former president rejected the nationwide ban and supported the right of individual states to decide on deadlines, agreeing with the position of the party majority. However, there is a political risk here. Opinion polls show that the majority of American voters do not support a strict ban on abortion.
Trump also says that if elected for a second term, he will force states and insurers to finance expensive IVF procedures, without specifying, however, how, and without going into details about the mechanism of action of this plan.
Foreign policy: Ukraine, NATO and the ‘Third World War’
Trump's promise to end the conflict in Ukraine on his first day in office seems to be based on his faith in himself as a negotiator. In September, he said: "I would invite Putin and Zelensky to the meeting room, and we would agree on a deal." Trump takes a businesslike approach to President Putin, whom he refused to condemn for the death of Alexei Navalny. It is believed that the former president is considering a strategy that involves further military assistance to Ukraine from the United States solely on condition that it enters into peace talks with Russia, as well as a warning from Moscow that the United States will increase funding for Kiev if Putin refuses to negotiate.
During his first term, Trump threatened to withdraw the United States from NATO if other members did not start paying more for defense, stimulating serious additional spending. In a pre-election video message on the topic of "Preventing World War III," he spoke of the need to "complete the process of fundamental reassessment of NATO's goals and mission, which began during the work of my administration." In July, he demanded that Israel end the war with Hamas and release the hostages held in Gaza.
As for Taiwan, according to Trump, it should pay the United States for protection. In an interview with Bloomberg Businessweek, N complained that the self-governing island, which Beijing promises to annex, is "stealing" American microchip production. "I think Taiwan should pay us for defense," he added. — You know, we are no different from an insurance company. Taiwan doesn't give us anything."
The ex-president said he would throw special forces into the fight against Mexican cartels. His former Defense Secretary, Mark Esper, wrote in his memoirs that he twice objected to Trump's proposal to launch missile strikes against them.
The Government and the "deep State’
Trump claims that he will "clean up the deep state" by restoring Biden's 2020 executive order on new contracts with federal employees to make it easier to fire them. Trump is likely to focus on removing senior security officials whom he accuses of investigating his campaign headquarters' ties to Russia in 2016. "We will create a truth and reconciliation commission that will declassify and publish all documents on state espionage, censorship and corruption," he promised.
Trump intends to move "up to 100 thousand government positions" from Washington to other cities as part of a number of institutions. He promised to federalize the capital, stripping the powers of local elected officials. The city has "turned into a dirty, crime-infested death trap that the federal government must take control of with proper management." Last March, Trump announced that his second presidential term would be marked by "retaliation." In January of this year, after numerous accusations that he was eager to return to the White House for the sake of revenge on enemies, he said the following in an interview with Fox News: "We will return such success to the country that I will not have time for retaliation. And remember: the ultimate retribution will be the success of the United States."
