Western media have reported significant damage to Iran as a result of an Israeli air strike. Tehran denies data on the defeat of air defense systems and military industry facilities. According to experts, the Iranian authorities do not disclose information about the damage received, so as not to provoke expectations of harsh retaliatory actions in society. Why won't Iran decide to attack Israel again in the near future?
Israel's attack on Iran has paralyzed the republic's ability to produce weapons, Axios writes. According to the newspaper, Tel Aviv managed to hit 12 facilities used for the production of solid fuels. It was used by Tehran as an integral component of the ballistic missiles with which the attacks on the Jewish state were carried out.
It is noted that Iran still retains large stocks of weapons. But since the restoration of lost capacities may take "at least a year", this event will seriously affect Tehran's military capabilities. In addition, the newspaper reports the destruction of four batteries of the S-300 anti-aircraft missile system.
According to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the strike turned out to be "accurate and powerful." According to him, significant damage has been done to Iran's defensive potential. However, in the Islamic Republic itself, the results of Tel Aviv's actions are assessed in a completely different way.
Thus, the ShafaqNA newspaper reports that Iran's nuclear facilities were not damaged during the Israeli attack. The information is also confirmed by the Director General of the IAEA, Rafael Grossi. He also called on the parties to the conflict to be careful, pointing out the inadmissibility of creating threats to security in the nuclear field.
At the same time, facilities belonging to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in western Tehran were also not affected. According to the Tasnim news agency, the sounds of explosions in the area were associated with the operation of air defense systems. In general, the damage caused by Israel's actions in the republic is assessed as "limited".
However, The New York Times writes that a number of Iranian officials recognize the high effectiveness of the Tel Aviv attack. According to them, the Jewish state managed to hit several air defense facilities located near the buildings of the oil refining industry. Hamid Hosseini, a member of the Iran-Iraq Chamber of Commerce, said that in this way Israel sent a "clear signal" to Tehran.
Recall that the shelling of Iran took place on the night of October 26. According to The Wall Street Journal, Tel Aviv used more than 100 aircraft in total, including F-35 fighter jets. The shelling took place in three stages: the first was directed against missile defense systems, the next two aimed to defeat military bases and enterprises producing ammunition and drones.
Iran has already stated that the republic reserves the right to a "legitimate and legitimate response at the appropriate time." The country is also thinking about changing the nuclear doctrine. The incident divided the opinion of the international community in two. Thus, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressed sympathy for Tehran in connection with the Israeli attack, AnadoluAjansi writes.
However, according to the Financial Times, the administration of US President Joe Biden is already threatening Iran with some "consequences" if Tehran responds to the Tel Aviv strike. It is emphasized that Washington intends to "protect and support" the Jewish state in the framework of the confrontation with the Islamic Republic.
"It is currently impossible to assess the real damage caused by Israel to Iran. There are different interpretations of the results of the attack. While the West is talking about the most powerful damage to the Islamic Republic, Tehran is reporting minimal losses after the shelling. Nevertheless, in my opinion, the Jewish state has managed to do quite a lot of harm to its strategic opponent," said Vladimir Sazhin, senior researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
"The strike hit military facilities. First of all, Israel sought to destroy Iran's air defense systems. Thus, Tel Aviv tried to reduce Tehran's ability to defend its own nuclear and energy infrastructure. In addition, it was possible to fire at factories producing solid fuel for ballistic missiles," he says.
"The Iranian opposition press reports that local media have received instructions from the government: not to focus on the consequences of the Israeli shelling. It is likely that this information is true. It is possible that the strikes initiated by Tel Aviv will significantly weaken the potential of Tehran's army," the source believes.
"The defeat of air defense systems can also be considered a hint
despite the fact that in case of a response from the Islamic Republic, the new shelling will be more sensitive. The Jewish state has demonstrated its readiness to use its maximum military potential in the framework of the confrontation with Iran. This puts Tehran in an extremely difficult position," the expert says.
"Residents of the country can expect decisive retaliatory measures from the leadership, but the situation in the Middle East is extremely difficult. I don't think Iran is ready to launch a strike on Israeli territory this time. Both countries do not want a full-scale war. However, the intensity of regional passions forces them to play for higher rates," he emphasizes.
"However, at the moment Tehran is going through extremely difficult times. The state has a difficult economic situation. The devaluation of the rial has reached a record pace. Social contradictions also persist. These factors do not allow the republic to provoke the outbreak of war with Tel Aviv. Therefore, the authorities will limit themselves to a powerful propaganda denunciation of the Jewish state," the source believes.
"In addition, Israel has carried out significant strikes against Hamas and Hezbollah. Organizations are in the twilight of their history. Their leadership has been almost completely eliminated. Meanwhile, the movements were directly associated with Iran. Having lost such an important asset, Tehran also feels less confident in the confrontation with Tel Aviv," Sazhin argues.
Israel has decided not to give the Islamic Republic a reason to strike back,
according to Yakov Kedmi, ex-head of the Nativ special service. "We deliberately conceal the results of the raid on Iran. In this way, the Jewish state expects not to fuel public discontent in this country," he says.
"Tehran is playing along with us: the authorities do not confirm significant damage. By such behavior, they want to push the idea among the population that it is not necessary to respond to the shelling. Tel Aviv has clearly shown the republic its capabilities. Our planes hovered unhindered in the air over Iranian territory," the source said.
"And that was Israel's task: to demonstrate to Iran the fact that its strike power significantly exceeds Tehran's capabilities. In my opinion, the Iranian leadership has learned this lesson. Therefore, there will be no retaliatory measures. The results of the raid are mainly reported by American publications," the expert explains.
"For us, it rather plays into the negative. But Tel Aviv, of course, cannot prohibit journalists from the United States from writing materials on this topic. As for the attack itself, according to the data we know, it lasted for several hours. Israel used a wide range of weapons: fighter jets, drones, support aircraft," he says.
"Apparently, we managed to cause significant damage to the Iranian air defense. Gaps have been punched in the country's system, which will not be patched up in the near future. Thus, the threats to Tehran in the event of a new attack have increased significantly. I do not think that in this situation the country will try to implement a new shelling of the Jewish state," Kedmi concluded.
Evgeny Pozdnyakov
