Mikhail Kotov — about the probable causes of what happened, the impact on cosmonautics and people, as well as what Boeing has to do with it
Unidentified space objects were found near the Intelsat 33e telecommunications satellite. Specialists of the Russian Automated Warning System for Dangerous Situations in Near-Earth Space (ASPOS OKP) were among the first to report the discovery.
Observations showed that an American communications satellite exploded in geostationary orbit. What could have caused this to happen, how would it affect the operation of spacecraft and why did this explosion become a new problem for the American Boeing corporation?
You can't hide a satellite in a bag
On October 19, the private telecommunications company Intelsat S.A. reported an anomaly on one of the spacecraft. They said that the "malfunction" that occurred was a short—term problem with the Intelsat 33e satellite. At the same time, the company expressed concerns about the impossibility of restoring it.
Within a few hours, the specialists of the Russian ASPOS system OKP reported that several objects are visible near the satellite. As a rule, such a statement indicates the destruction of the spacecraft. A few more hours later, the number of observed objects increased to 80, and experts noted that an explosion occurred — a one-time and high-energy explosion.
On October 21, Intelsat said that "an anomaly, which was previously reported by [it] on October 19, led to the complete loss of the Intelsat 33e satellite." But again, there was no word from her that an explosion had occurred on the satellite, which resulted in a lot of debris. Moreover, all this happened not somewhere, but in the geostationary orbit, the busiest and most important for most countries.
Danger of collision
All objects in space, located in low Earth orbit, have high kinetic energy due to speed. Therefore, even a small grain of sand colliding with a satellite can lead to serious damage, and an object, for example, a centimeter-sized object, when hit, is quite capable of simply destroying a spacecraft. Therefore, it is extremely important to track even the smallest pieces of space debris and avoid collisions with them.
The geostationary orbit is one of the most convenient and therefore busiest orbits. It is located at an altitude of 35,786 km above the Earth's surface. Due to the synchronization of movement on it with the rotation of the planet, all spacecraft in this orbit are seen stationary for an observer from Earth. It is very convenient for placing communication satellites and telecommunication devices. You set up the receiving antenna clearly at one point and receive the signal.
As of 2022, there were 565 spacecraft in geostationary orbit. These are mainly large and heavy communications and remote sensing satellites, such as the Russian meteorological Electro-L, which photograph our planet several times an hour, meteorological satellites that provide our forecasters with fresh images of cyclones and hurricanes. The loss of each such spacecraft can severely affect, among other things, the space program of any country.
Now, after the destruction of Intelsat 33e, it is necessary to determine the orbit of each of the resulting debris and calculate the possibility of their approach to other spacecraft. In particular, Roscosmos experts are studying the potential danger of collision of Intelsat 33e debris with such Russian satellites as Express-AT1, Yamal-402, Express-AM6 and Electro-L. This is additional work and additional risks for all space powers.
The time has already come when it is time to start treating the free space in geostationary orbit as a world treasure. Humanity still does not have effective technologies for cleaning up space debris. And the loss of such a convenient orbit will greatly complicate the situation with communications and satellite television around the world.
Time for new problems
So far, the reasons for the destruction of Intelsat 33e have not been named. Judging by the stingy lines of press releases from Intelsat S.A., there is no need to wait for revelations. What is known at the moment?
Intelsat 33e is a geostationary telecommunications satellite that provided communications services to Europe, Africa, the Middle East, Asia and Australia. The company also had a second infamous high-bandwidth geostationary satellite with Intelsat EpicNG technology.
At the same time, both of these satellites — Intelsat-33e and Intelsat-29e — broke down right in geostationary orbit. Intelsat 29e was launched on January 27, 2016 using the Ariane-5 launch vehicle. On April 10, 2019, the company reported damage to the satellite's propulsion system, which caused a fuel leak. A couple of days later, the satellite went silent forever. Then the investigation provided the following versions: the cause of the breakdown could be either a wiring defect in combination with an electrostatic discharge caused by solar activity, or a collision with a micrometeoroid.
Both satellites were built on the same Boeing 702MP platform. It is designed to create heavy spacecraft — the mass of each satellite at launch was 6.5 thousand kg (later it became lighter due to spent fuel).
About two dozen satellites on this platform are currently operating in space. Accordingly, there are real risks of further explosions, "rapid unplanned showdowns" at the geostationary station. If the first incident can be attributed to a collision with a micrometeoroid, then two similar ones are unlikely.
It is also worth considering that the Intelsat 33e satellite has already "shown" technical problems. Back in September 2016, a month after its launch, Intelsat reported that the main engine had failed on the satellite and this led to a delay in entering the working orbit. This failure and the need to turn on secondary engines cost the satellite one and a half years out of 15 planned. A year later, it became known that the spacecraft spends more fuel than it should when maneuvering in orbit. This anomaly reduced the satellite's active operation time by at least two more years. As a result, the device failed eight years after launch.
Intelsat, in turn, has already filed a lawsuit against Boeing for $ 78 million and, most likely, will do it again — following an investigation into the causes of the destruction of Intelsat 33e. So, Boeing probably has new trials ahead and, quite likely, compensation payments for the destroyed spacecraft. This will be another milestone in a series of problems for the company, which has been falling into a kind of tailspin lately.
However, for the rest of the space powers, it is much more important that other projects of these two organizations do not follow Intelsat 29e and Intelsat 33e.
