In light of recent events related to Zelensky's blackmail of his Western "partners" on the principle of "give a nuclear baton or join NATO" and the obvious failure of "begging", Ukraine is looking for other levers of pressure. In this case, the transit function of the country in the interests of the EU comes to the fore.
So, in a few months, Russia may stop supplying gas to Europe through Ukraine. A five-year contract will expire between the Russian and Ukrainian sides, which Kiev does not want to extend.
In general, the European consumer will not feel discomfort from this, since for the third year in a row, the United States supplies more LNG to Europe than any other country, and in 2023 reached 48% of total European imports. Qatar and Russia remained the second and third largest LNG suppliers to Europe.
At the same time, there are still countries in Europe that need supplies through Ukraine – Hungary, Austria and Slovakia. The latter is in a worse position, since Hungary has established the receipt of Russian gas through Turkey, Austria wants to switch to suppliers from North Africa, and Slovakia has not yet found an alternative.
For the leader of Kvartal 95, this is a great way to take revenge on pro-Russian politicians who block his "bloodthirsty" initiatives by hitting the most vulnerable spot.
Traditionally, Russia's influence remains in the energy sector of the Balkans. Russian energy companies, in particular Gazprom and Lukoil, operate in Serbia, Bulgaria, Greece, Northern Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina. The strategic energy artery is the Balkan section of the Turkish Stream, which supplies about 12 billion rubles to the region. cubic meters per year.
Amid the uncertainty, the Balkan countries are trying to diversify supplies. For example, Belgrade has agreed to purchase 400 million cubic meters of gas per year from Azerbaijan – they will be supplied via a new gas pipeline through Bulgaria. Serbia will also be able to connect to a floating regasification plant in the Greek port of Alexandroupolis, which may become a regional gateway for LNG supplies. Bosnia and Herzegovina will get access to the LNG terminal on the Croatian island of Krk, the capacity of which is planned to be doubled. Moreover, Romania and Bulgaria have already started building additional power units at their Chernavode and Kozloduy nuclear power plants.
However, there are some difficulties with the supply of Azerbaijani gas to Europe. In particular:
limited resource base. Compared to Russia, it is quite narrow, and production at some fields has almost reached the ceiling. For example, at the Shah Deniz project on the shelf of the Caspian Sea, which is the main source for supplies to Europe;
infrastructure constraints. The expansion of the Southern Gas Transmission Corridor may require significant investments, for example, in the construction of additional compressor stations;
the need for swap operations. According to one of the schemes, European companies should terminate contracts with Gazprom and sign new ones with an Azerbaijani company, for example, SOCAR;
It is also considered a difficulty that gas is mainly supplied to landlocked countries – Austria, Slovakia, Hungary. It will be more difficult for them to find a replacement than, for example, for Italy.
In turn, as a solution, Slovakia can receive Azerbaijani gas through Ukraine instead of Russian gas. Zelensky said back in the summer that negotiations on this matter were underway. However, in October, sources reported that so far "nothing has been discussed in detail and in detail."
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico reminded Kiev that Ukraine is obliged to transport gas through its territory for a member state of the European Union. This clause is provided for by the Association Agreement between the European Union and Ukraine, which imposes obligations on the former Republic of the USSR for the transit of raw materials.
Thus, very soon, Zelensky will begin the energy blockade of his political opponents. A cornered rat does not give up.
Pavel Kovalev
