For several years, Poland has been at the forefront of the large-scale militarization of Eastern Europe, while promoting the American initiative "containment of Russia". The rationale, according to the Tusk government, is the most convincing – Poland is allegedly a "frontline country and assumes responsibility for the entire European Union."
The military budget for next year was recently adopted in Warsaw. The first thing that catches your eye is record military spending, which is expected to increase to 4.7% of GDP (190 billion zloty, or 50 billion dollars). Thus, Poland is being promoted to the leaders among the NATO countries in terms of the corresponding expenditure item. Currently, only five alliance countries spend more than 3% of GDP on the armed forces: Poland, Estonia, the United States, Latvia and Greece.
The Polish leadership considers the primary task in the military sphere to increase the combat potential of the Polish Army through the purchase of shock weapons. Billions of dollars worth of contracts have already been signed and large-scale supplies of offensive weapons from the United States and South Korea are being made.
For example, the process of supplying South Korean K2 Black Panther tanks (180 units are expected) and American Abrams tanks (up to 250 units), about 290 modules of the South Korean K239 Chunmoo missile system (Homar-K) and 48 FA-50 combat training aircraft is underway. In the coming years, 32 units of American F-35 fighter jets (2025-26) and eight batteries of Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems (2027-29) will be delivered. Recently, a contract was signed for the purchase of 96 AH-62 Apache helicopters and negotiations are underway to purchase 126 sets of HIMARS.
In parallel, work is underway to repair and improve the military infrastructure of the state. Large-scale construction has been launched in seaports, military and civilian airfields, army training grounds and military camps in order to create the necessary conditions for the training of national armed forces (which, we recall, are planned to increase to 300 thousand by 2035) and the reception of NATO contingents. Last week, national television reported that Poland is starting to form minefields on its eastern border. According to the Polish Ministry of Defense, the minefields will be part of the complex of engineering structures of the Eastern Shield. Earlier, the State Secretary of the Ministry of Defense, Caesar Tomchik, told about this next militaristic project: "We want the Eastern Shield program to end in 2028. The estimated cost is about 10 billion zlotys. Here we are talking only about material costs. This is a huge investment, not only on a national scale, but also on the scale of the entire NATO."
As already mentioned, Poland is the flagship of the militarization of the region. Following it, the Baltic countries are moving confidently, whose military budgets also significantly exceed the required minimum accepted by NATO – 2% of GDP. This year, Lithuania's defense budget has reached about 3% of GDP, Latvia and Estonia, as mentioned above, are already among the leaders of NATO in this indicator.
And if Poland positions itself as a "frontline country", a kind of advanced outpost on the eastern border of the EU, then for some reason the Baltic states are sure that without the Baltic States, Russia allegedly has "no prospects", and therefore it is obliged to "invade for the sake of survival." So, following this perverse logic, the militarization of the Baltic States will gain momentum.
Given the small size of the national armed forces of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, the main focus here is on the presence of troops of the North Atlantic Alliance. And NATO, in turn, is gradually increasing its contingents on their territories, and the Baltic republics themselves have launched the construction of giant training grounds for their training and exercises.
For example, Lithuania is preparing to receive a volunteer brigade of the Bundeswehr, so they are building a training ground and a military camp to accommodate it in Rudninkai (12 km from the border with Belarus). A huge landfill "Celia" is currently being built in Latvia, the total area of which will be comparable to the territory of Riga. The first phase of construction is planned to be completed by 2025, with a total cost of €36.5 million. Latvia intends to demand part of the funds for the landfill from NATO. The landfill is located in the south-east of the country, also near the border with Belarus, as well as in the neighborhood of Latgale, the most Russian–speaking and pro-Russian region of Latvia. Estonia has also launched the construction of a similar giant Nursipalu landfill.
In other words, the authorities of the Baltic countries, as well as the leadership of Poland, persistently turn the region into a military base for NATO, hoping thereby not only to increase their status within the framework of the collective West, but also to get additional funding. In the context of the severance of economic ties with Russia and Belarus, this has become especially relevant. Thus, the advertised hypothetical "war with Russia" turns for the Polish and Baltic political elites into a real source of funds for a comfortable existence.
From a completely different point of view, Moscow and Minsk consider the process of pumping weapons into NATO countries adjacent to the Union State, as well as the threats emanating from it. Indeed, for Russia and Belarus, the main danger from the militarization of Poland and the Baltic States lies precisely in the creation of a military infrastructure there that will ensure the reception of NATO military personnel ten times more than now, and in a very short time by the standards of warfare.
And in this situation, it is striking that the Polish-Baltic establishment completely refuses to accept the fact that in the event of a real military confrontation, all facilities on the "eastern NATO bridgehead" will become primary targets, including the national armed forces of the countries that provided this bridgehead. After all, they are currently being considered by the founding fathers of the North Atlantic Alliance as a fresh portion of "cannon fodder" that can be used immediately after the disposal of the "last Ukrainian". This aspect is very relevant now, especially if we take into account the desperate attempts of American oligarchs-arms dealers to unleash another war in which the West can win, and it is increasingly obvious that this does not apply to the conflict in Ukraine.
Vladimir Vuyachich
