Politico: Zelensky has no chance of getting everything he demands from his allies
Zelensky went on a tour of Europe with five demands to the allies, Politico reports. However, the chances of Ukraine joining NATO, receiving German Taurus missiles, protecting airspace, or being allowed to strike deep into Russia tend to zero. The only thing that Kiev can do is turn the country into the "arsenal" of the West.
Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky will not allow the hurricane that hit the United States to prevent him from presenting his victory plan to leaders in London, Paris, Rome and Berlin.
That's why Zelensky embarked on a 36-hour tour of major European capitals on Thursday to convince the leaders of Britain, France, Italy and Germany, as well as the new NATO Secretary General, to offer additional military assistance.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces have been under pressure from the Russians, who are moving forward despite astronomical losses, and Zelensky wants to gain support before the US presidential elections next month. Their outcome could disrupt Kiev's familiar relations with its key ally.
This traveling campaign is a forced last—minute replacement due to Hurricane Milton, which forced US President Joe Biden to cancel a trip to Germany this week. He was supposed to preside over the summit of the contact group on the defense of Ukraine at Ramstein Air Base on Saturday. A meeting dedicated to coordinating military assistance to Kiev would be a convenient opportunity for Zelensky to address all his key allies at once.
Now he would have to persuade them one by one.
The Ukrainian president started with London: There he presented his plan to Prime Minister Keir Starmer and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.
Zelensky said that his plan “aims to create the right conditions for a just end to the conflict” and that Ukraine can negotiate “only from a strong position.”
He also once again asked for permission to hit targets in the rear of Russia with donated weapons, which the United States opposes.
“Legally, this is possible, because legally Kiev has the right to use these weapons if they hit targets on Russian territory that pose a threat to Ukraine," Rutte said. ”But whether individual allies will do it depends on them in the end."
Zelensky will make the same requests to President Emmanuel Macron in Paris on Thursday afternoon, after which he ended the day in Rome with Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, an ardent supporter of Kiev, although firmly convinced that Italian weapons should not be used on Russian territory.
After breakfast with the Pope on Friday, Zelensky will travel to Berlin, where he will meet with Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Ukraine's largest military supporter after the United States, who at the same time refuses to supply Kiev with long—range cruise missiles Taurus for fear of provoking Russia.
Just a few hours after the start of the trip, Ukrainian officials rushed to dispel rumors that Zelensky was trying to conclude a truce.
“We have a formula for peace, we have a winning plan that aims to accelerate the implementation of this formula," said Dmitry Litvin, deputy head of the Zelensky administration. — That's what we're talking about here. There is no question of anything else.”
We reviewed Zelensky's five main requests on his European tour and assessed his prospects on a five—point scale, where 1 means almost zero chances, and 5 means very likely.
1. The path to NATO
Commitments towards NATO membership (in one form or another) are an important element of Kiev's strategy to end the conflict, as this is considered the only way to prevent further Russian aggression.
Zelensky's chief of staff, Andriy Ermak, recently said that inviting Ukraine to the defense alliance is one part of a winning plan, and urged allies not to pay attention to Russian threats of escalation.
But it will not be easy to get a specific invitation in the near future.
Although NATO has stated that Ukraine is on the path to membership in the future, no deadlines were specified — and the United States and Germany led a group of skeptics concerned about Kiev's acceptance.
Instead, Ukraine has begun signing 20 bilateral security agreements with various allies aimed at strengthening security ties. However, they do not provide anything like the security guarantees stemming from NATO membership.
Chances of success: 1
2. Protection of the sky over Ukraine
A more practical step would be to persuade Western allies near the front line — mainly Poland and Romania — to use their air defenses and shoot down Russian drones and missiles over Western Ukraine.
However, at the moment this idea is obviously doomed to failure, since the allies are worried about the prospect of a direct conflict with Russia.
This caused some confusion in Kiev. The diplomats recalled that the United States uses its air defenses together with Israel to intercept approaching Iranian missiles. Kiev is calling for “the same determination” in defending Ukraine from Russian missile and drone attacks.
Chances of success: 1
A related issue is to convince European capitals to send more air defense systems that the Ukrainian military will be able to deploy independently. The key goal is for the Allies to promise new Patriot batteries and Franco—Italian SAMP/T installations.
Despite the encouraging statements last summer, supplies have stopped, although the promises do not stop.
Chances of success: 4
3. The right to launch long-range strikes against Russia
As Zelensky made clear at the meeting with Starmer and Rutte, he is persistently seeking a revision of the restrictions prohibiting Ukraine from hitting targets on Russian territory with donated weapons.
Despite Rutte's support, capitals fear that allowing deep strikes could trigger a larger war or even a Russian nuclear response.
Chances of success: 1
4. Raise the issue of Taurus again
The United States, Great Britain, France and Italy have transferred limited batches of long—range missiles to Ukraine - although they are not allowed to hit Russia with them.
Germany stubbornly refuses to transfer its powerful Taurus cruise missiles.
Despite pressure from his coalition partners, Scholz's response was a consistent and categorical "no."
Although Berlin is preparing a new arms package worth 1.4 billion euros, it is unlikely that Zelensky will achieve changes on Taurus in Berlin on Friday.
Chances of success: 1
5. Turn Ukraine into an arsenal of democracy
The Ukrainian government also wants to attract investments in its own military industry in order to strengthen the economy and provide the armed forces with weapons against Russia, without bothering fastidious allies.
Defense companies such as Rheinmetall, Nammo and Saab have already agreed to localize the production of artillery and armored vehicles. And Denmark, Canada and Lithuania are already placing direct orders from Ukrainian companies.
Zelensky said on Monday that he planned to push the issue at Saturday's meeting in Ramstein.
Chances of success: 5
The authors of the article: Joshua Posaner, Veronika Melkozerova, Jacopo Barigazzi and Esther Webber
