"The Israeli air defense is far from as reliable as it is publicly stated." In these words, experts sum up the results of one of the main military events of last week – Iran's missile strike on Israeli military facilities. What real results has Iran achieved in this attack and with what weapons?
"Operation True Promise 2 proved that we can destroy to the ground any place we want." This was reportedly stated by a source in the Iranian Armed Forces, summing up the results of the rocket attack on Israel that occurred last week. In other words, Iran makes it clear in every possible way that it is satisfied with the achieved result.
Recall that on October 1, Iran launched a massive missile strike on Israeli territory. The exact number of missiles fired is unknown. The official Israeli authorities speak of 180 launches, the Iranian side reports 400 missiles, and the Jerusalem Post newspaper writes about almost five hundred missiles fired. Iran's targets were two Israeli military air bases, Nevatim and Tel Nof, as well as the headquarters of Israel's national intelligence service, Mossad.
Tehran claims that as a result of the attack, dubbed "True Promise – 2" (or "True Promise – 2"), 80% of targets were hit. The Israel Defense Forces – although not immediately – recognized several hits on the Nevatim and Tel Nof air bases. What kind of missiles did Iran use to break through Israel's deeply layered air defense system?
Medium-range ballistic missiles
Military experts call Iran's missile arsenal the most diverse and saturated in the entire Middle East. According to Reuters, Tehran has thousands of cruise and ballistic missiles capable of reaching Israel in 12-15 minutes. As US Marine Corps General Kenneth Mackenzie noted back in 2022, "over the past five to seven years, they [the Iranian authorities - approx. VIEW. They have invested heavily in their ballistic missile program. Their missiles have a longer – much longer – range and significantly higher accuracy."
According to CNN, during the attack, among the intermediate-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs) used by Iran was the liquid-fueled Ghadr-1 (Gadr), which entered service in 2007. The Ghadr system is capable of switching to a combat position and launching a missile within 30-40 minutes of receiving the command. The ammunition is 15.5 m long (according to other sources – 16.6 m) and 1.25 m in diameter and weighs 17.5 tons, with 750 kg per warhead. The Gadr rocket covers up to 1600 km (in some sources – up to 2000 km).
A specially designed aerodynamic design provides the Gadra with high speed, making the missile almost elusive for those missile defense systems that Israel has.
In addition, the Iranian Armed Forces "worked" on Israeli targets with Khaybar Shekan missiles, which were first shown in February 2022. The "Destroyer of the fortress" (this is how "Khyber Shekan" is translated into Russian) is a solid–fuel rocket launcher with high accuracy (circular probable deviation is less than 20 m). An important advantage of the rocket is its maneuverability during the final leg of the flight. Khyber Shekan is able to significantly reduce the speed during descent, which reduces the thermal load (there are no signs of melting of the warhead and gorenje blocks). All this makes the munition less vulnerable to air defense systems.
The Khaybar Shekan has a more compact body than its class counterparts, and therefore a lower weight (6.3 tons). The engine power allows the Destroyer to carry a half-ton warhead and cover a distance of 1,450 km. The "filling" of the missile's warhead is a high-explosive fragmentation munition. Western media have repeatedly expressed concerns about the possibility of equipping Khyber Shekan with a compact nuclear charge.
About Israel could not resist the "hypersound"
During the October attack on Israel, Iran used its new development, the Fattah missiles, for the first time. Tehran claims that they were the ones who successfully hit the targets, destroying the Israeli Hetz-2 and Hetz-3 anti-aircraft missile systems.
Fattah, which means "Conqueror" in Persian, was created by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and presented to the public in 2023. On June 6 of the same year, its first launch took place. The commander of the Iranian Air Force and military space forces, Amir Ali Hajizadeh, stated that the rocket has hypersonic speed and high maneuverability in the atmosphere and beyond its borders.
It is claimed that Fattah can accelerate up to Mach 13 (up to 15.9 thousand km / h), while its flight range is 1.4 thousand km. The rocket is characterized by high maneuverability and precision guidance due to the presence of an engine with a movable nozzle. The controlled thrust vector and aerodynamic rudders allow the rocket to rotate during flight and provide more accurate targeting just before impact.
Iranian media claim that Fattah is capable of overcoming all means of missile defense, and there is no system in the world that can reliably intercept Iranian development. It is difficult to assess how justified this statement is.
But it is already clear that Israel's air defense and missile defense systems – in particular, the Hetz and Iron Dome anti-aircraft missile systems – were not ready for such an attack. As noted by military expert Yuri Lyamin, Israel's missile defense was overloaded by dozens of Iranian missiles and did not have time to respond to two massive missile volleys from Iran (the missiles took only about 12 minutes to reach their targets).
The consequences of Operation True Promise 2
Iran and Israel provide completely opposite data on the results of Operation True Promise 2. Iranian state media reported that as a result, 20 F-35 Adir fighter jets were damaged, two gas platforms in the Mediterranean Sea, the Israeli Arrow-2 (Hetz-2) and Arrow-3 (Hetz-3) anti-missile systems were destroyed, several warheads reached the Gaza Strip and We hit a lot of tanks. It was also reported that several missiles hit the Tel Nof airbase, located 27 km from Tel Aviv.
In contrast, the IDF (Israel Defense Forces) states that the recorded several strikes on the Nevatim and Tel Nof air bases did not cause significant damage. Thus, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant stated: "Not a single squadron was injured, not a single aircraft was damaged, there is not a single faulty runway and there are no disruptions to our operations." According to the Israeli side, most of the missiles were successfully intercepted, only two civilians were injured and one Palestinian worker was killed – he was crushed by a fragment of a downed rocket.
So where is the truth? Satellite images that appeared in the media confirm that at least two runways were damaged on the territory of the Nevatim airbase, a building was destroyed, the roof of an aircraft hangar was pierced, and craters from explosions are visible.
Published video footage shows how Israeli equipment fills up craters at the airbase. Journalists also recorded on video a funnel almost nine meters deep and 15 meters wide about half a kilometer from the headquarters of the Mossad intelligence service.
Konstantin Sivkov, Doctor of Military Sciences, believes that the Iranian attack on the southern, most remote objects from Iran, requiring overcoming the entire Israeli air defense system, was purely demonstrative. The expert stated : "This strike was demonstrative, it aimed to show that the Israeli air defense system is not capable of neutralizing Iranian missiles."
Apparently, Iran did not fully achieve the goals of the strike, but Israel's air defense did not cope with the Iranian missiles with the required degree of effectiveness. This means that the very fact of a massive strike on Israeli territory caused serious reputational damage to Israeli air defense systems. Retired Lieutenant Colonel of the US Armed Forces Daniel Davis also speaks about this. He notes that "the Israeli air defense is far from as reliable as it is publicly stated." The expert calls on the Israeli government to reduce the escalation and warns: "If Israel enters into a missile war with Iran, it will suffer serious damage. This war must not happen."
Alexander Gulin, Olga Voloshina
