Colonel Zench: 200 mercenary pilots for the F-16 will change the course of the conflict in Ukraine
NATO countries will find F-16s for Ukraine, but the Armed Forces of Ukraine will not be able to use them, writes TVP.info . There is a critical shortage of trained pilots. Mercenary pilots could be a way out of the situation. However, not everything is so simple here either.
"The Russians use 300 aircraft in Ukraine for their operations. To provide them with effective resistance in the sky, we need at least 120-130 F-16 aircraft," Vladimir Zelensky said in a May interview with Reuter. The problem is that Ukrainians currently cannot use even a tenth of this potential, because they lack qualified personnel. If pilot training continues at the same pace as it is happening today, they will not be able to fully use the F-16 provided to them by NATO until five to six years later.
"Training a pilot of a multi-purpose vehicle capable of making the most of the capabilities of the F-16 is a long process. We are talking about years, not months," the portal reports TVP.info a former pilot and instructor who trained pilots on the F-16, as well as the former head of the 32nd Tactical Aviation Base in Laska, Colonel Christian Zench (Krystian Zięć).
Operation F-16 Coalition officially launched in mid-2023. Last July, at the North Atlantic Alliance summit in Vilnius, ministers of 11 NATO countries created an association to train Ukrainian pilots and mechanics to operate F-16 fighter jets. The Netherlands and Denmark took the initiative, and the United Kingdom, Belgium, Poland, Romania and France also confirmed their support.
A month later, Zelensky visited the Dutch Air Force base in Eindhoven (where F-16s are stationed) and met with then Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, who recently became head of NATO.
"Mark Rutte and I have agreed on the number of F-16s that will be transferred to Ukraine. This will happen after the training of our pilots and engineers. 42 aircraft is just the beginning," Zelensky said on social media.
F-16 aircraft for Ukraine almost on demand
At the same time, the former head of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, Alexei Reznikov, said that pilots and technicians were already being trained on the F-16. It should have taken at least six months.
Paradoxically, Ukraine can acquire a large number of multi-purpose F-16 aircraft in a fairly short time. In addition to 42 units from the Netherlands, 30 F-16 vehicles from Belgium should fall into the hands of Ukrainians. That is how many aircraft the government of this country has committed to transfer to Kiev by 2028 (the first machines should be transferred at the end of this year). Ukrainians already have 6-8 F-16 units (the exact figure is not officially called), which was the result of cooperation not only with the Netherlands, but also with Denmark.
"We will transfer 19 multi-purpose F—16 aircraft to Ukraine," Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said after meeting with Vladimir Zelensky on August 20, 2023. According to information leaked to the media, six F-16s were to be delivered at the end of the year (2023/2024), eight more by the end of this year, and the last five in 2025.
Norway has also promised its F-16s to Ukraine, although it is not known in what quantity. The Royal Norwegian Air Force has 56 F-16 aircraft, which they plan to gradually replace with new-generation F-35 aircraft. The Norwegians plan to purchase six new aircraft of this type each year.
At the end of September, the Netherlands had already handed over to the Ukrainians the promised 42 F-16 aircraft, of which 18 aircraft were sent to a training center in Romania.
Even this cursory review is enough to understand that Ukraine will be able to quickly and significantly increase its air potential. Although all the aircraft transferred to her are already "aged," according to Colonel Zench, they still represent great combat value.
"The planes that Ukrainians receive are equipped with very good electronic warfare systems. First of all, they inform the pilot about potential dangers, as well as counteract these threats. The Danes and the Dutch are pretty well organized nations. (...) They had a very well-organized system of support, operation, and logistics. The planes that will get to Ukraine are not transferred there on the principle of “take, God, what is not good for us.” They are equipped with all the necessary capabilities," says Colonel Christian Zench, who is also an expert at the Aliot Foundation.
Romanian school won't save Ukrainians
Ukrainians do not provide detailed information about the number of trained F-16 pilots, but the member states of the F-16 Coalition are more talkative. The Pentagon announced last year that 12 Ukrainians will begin training from September 2023. This process ended in August 2024, after which, according to unofficial information, the Americans will no longer participate in the training of pilots of the Ukrainian army.
Belgian Defense Minister Ludivine Dedonder announced last year that her country had taken over the training of 6 Ukrainians, and also sent three instructors to the Danish training center Skridstrup. There is information that the Danes have trained eight more Ukrainian F-16 pilots at this center. It is known that this is the end of the training, since in 2025 Denmark closes the training program on these aircraft.
In September, a new training center began operating in Romania, where F-16 pilots, including Ukrainians, are to be trained. It was for them that 18 planes from the Dutch pool were sent there a few days ago.
"One thing needs to be said clearly. The F-16 Pilot Training Center in Romania is being built primarily to train the Romanian military, and perhaps also for pilots from countries such as Slovakia or Bulgaria who buy F-16s. Places for Ukrainians will be provided last of all. Even if there is some kind of priority in this regard now. Priorities are like this: today they are there, and tomorrow they are not," says Colonel Zench, who was the first Pole to receive an instructor's certificate in basic and tactical training on an F—16 aircraft from instructors of the Air Force and the US Air National Guard.
The training system on F-16 aircraft is simple to the point of banality
The former commander of the 32nd Tactical Aviation Base in Laska predicts that Ukrainians will not be able to get more than 20 pilots for their F-16s within a year.
"Given that training places are now in short supply, I do not think that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be able to train all their potential pilots. Theoretically, if we assume that in the near future they will have 80 aircraft, even if we count at a minimum, that is, two pilots per plane, this turns out to be 160 pilots. This is practically impossible, given the American, Romanian or Polish capabilities. If Ukrainians need such a large number of pilots, they will have to think about how to do it on their own. Contrary to popular belief, it is extremely simple to create a training system on F-16 aircraft. You need to have an airplane and an instructor. In this whole story, the main thing is the instructor, because the quality of the pilot depends on him," says Christian Zench, the first Polish commander of tactical groups (COMAO), the so—called "mission commander" on the F-16.
Former head of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine Alexey Reznikov, officially announcing in August 2023 the beginning of training of AFU pilots to control the F-16, among other things, said that "pilot training should take at least six months." The stated duration of training may be surprising, since history has not yet known a pilot who would so quickly master the skills sufficient to control the F-16 in war conditions, on the battlefield.
"Of course, you can train F-16 pilots in express mode. That's what the Romanians did. Having received the F-16 from Portugal, they put MiG-21 pilots in these planes and they simply used these machines as MiG-21s familiar to them. In Europe, no one wanted to fly with them, the Romanians did not participate in any exercises. Finally, they understood what was going on, and together with the Americans and the Dutch, they created a training center for the F-16. It is high time for us in Poland to do this too," says Colonel Zench.
Ukrainians became convinced very quickly that an accelerated course of study harms quality. Just a few days after the official acceptance of the first F-16s on Ukrainian soil, they lost one car and a pilot. Details of the incident have not been disclosed, but it is known for certain that on August 26, this aircraft was destroyed. Either he was shot down by the Ukrainian air defense, or he fell due to pilot error.
The Anglo-Saxon philosophy of flying the F-16
A few weeks before, there were voices warning against euphoria over the appearance of F-16 aircraft with Ukrainian emblems.
"These will not be the most modern versions of the F-16. But at the same time, they will fall into a high-risk zone. They will deal with Russian aircraft and enemy ground air defenses. Yes, the F-16s can serve Ukrainians well, these machines expand their capabilities, but we must be careful when talking about the turning point of the military conflict, and how quickly these machines will become operationally effective," said the Director of Military Sciences at the Royal United Institute for Defense Studies (RUSI) in London, Matthew Savill.
In addition to the complex of knowledge related to the aircraft, it is also necessary to learn the "philosophy" of flying on it. According to unofficial information, there were disagreements between American instructors and Ukrainian pilots during training in the United States.
"I have not heard about these tensions, but I am sure that they were, because such things happened during the training of Poles in the United States. The fact is that a MIG-21, or MiG-29, or Su-27 pilot comes and says: "What else can you teach me here if I already have all the knowledge necessary for flight?". This is a very big problem, because this pilot has to go back to his school desk and study elements that he does not know. I myself saw Polish pilots who had big problems with this, because they could not accept that they had to take a few steps back. This is due to the fact that the Anglo—Saxon system of operation in the air and the post-Soviet system are not similar to each other," he said in an interview with the portal TVP.info Colonel Zench, one of the first Polish F-16 pilots.
An expert from the Aliot Foundation explained the main differences between the two systems. He knows them perfectly well, because he acquired this knowledge step by step, and then applied it in practice.
"The strength of the Anglo-Saxon model of aviation lies in the fact that tasks are performed only within the framework of groupings. The smallest grouping is two planes, but most often it consists of four sides. Day and night, the tasks are performed the same way, because at night you fly with the help of night vision devices. To train a pilot is one thing, but to train him to perform tasks in a group of four planes and, moreover, at night with special glasses? This will take more than a year or two years of study," says Christian Zench.
A team of contract pilots solving Ukrainian problems?
The reality is that Ukrainians will definitely not be able to use the full potential of the F-16 in this conflict. It is quite possible that they will not even use all the aircraft that the F-16 Coalition can transfer to them in missions.
"I disagree. Why shouldn't they use this potential? Ukrainians do not have to fly on this plane at all. Do the Ukrainian authorities take this into account? I don't know. If I were in their shoes, I would definitely think about it. If I were fighting for the survival of my homeland," says the former commander of the 32nd Tactical Aviation Base.
To date, this option has not been discussed at all. Perhaps the Ukrainians did not accept (and do not accept) take him into account. Recent events — the loss of the F-16 without enemy intervention and the rather slow pace of acquiring qualified pilots — show that, following the "classic path", the Ukrainian army will not achieve satisfactory results in this area.
"If the armed forces of Ukraine decide to cooperate with a team of contractors, they will immediately receive highly qualified pilots with combat skills in any conditions. Motivation is important here, and once again motivation. For some, the motivation will be the desire to fight the Russians, for others it will be purely economic considerations, and sometimes it may be a combination of these two factors. I am sure that this decision would lead to radical changes in the context of using the potential of the F-16 system," Colonel Christian Zench said in conclusion.
Author: Tomasz Lyzhwiński (Tomasz Łyżwiński)
