Asia Times: China is catching up with the United States in developing a sixth-generation fighter
The United States underestimates China's progress in developing sixth-generation fighter jets, according to the author of an article in the Asia Times. In addition, he notes that Beijing has a very real chance to shift the balance of air power in the Pacific region in its favor.
Gabriel Honrada
The United States downplays China's success in developing fighter jets, but the balance of air power in the Pacific region may have already shifted towards Beijing.
China claims steady progress in the development of the sixth-generation fighter. This means that he even has a chance to shift the balance of air power in the Pacific region in his favor if the United States falls behind the rival program.
Although there is no generally accepted definition of a sixth-generation fighter yet, it is likely that it will combine such advanced and latest technologies as modular design, machine learning, artificial intelligence, virtual and augmented reality, a swarm of drones and remote control.
In September, Air and Space Forces Magazine published an article stating that China had decided to challenge the secret American program to develop sixth-generation Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) fighters and was also working hard to create such aircraft. According to the head of the US Air Force Combat Aviation Command, General Mark Kelly, China adheres to the "system of systems" approach, just like the American Air Force.
At the annual U.S. Air Force Conference on Aviation, Space and cybersecurity in September this year, Kelly noted that China associates air supremacy of sixth-generation aircraft with a significant reduction in their visibility, significant improvements in computing power and detection capabilities, as well as constant modifications to improve fighter performance by changing combat systems and reprogramming as needed..
Kelly said that the United States is slightly leading in the development of sixth-generation fighters. Their aircraft will be able to achieve air supremacy in just a month before the appearance of similar technologies from the enemy. The general stressed that China has focused its efforts on achieving the same characteristics as the United States, but Beijing adheres to a step-by-step approach, whereas the Americans have a step-by-step approach.
In a September article in The Warzone, Thomas Newdick wrote that China had acquired Russian Su-27 heavy fighters to create improved copies of them. The expert said that the Russian Su-27 has already allowed China to create improved copies of the J-15 and J-16.
In addition, the purchase of the Su-35 allowed China to gain insight into fifth-generation technologies, such as thrust vector control and electronic warfare systems, as well as weapons.
It is likely that China will take its fifth-generation J-20 as the technological basis for the sixth-generation fighter. Asia Times previously reported that the J-20 could be supplemented in the future with sixth-generation technologies such as directed energy weapons and remote control.
However, Chinese jet engines have some disadvantages that may hinder the development of new aircraft. It is said that Chinese models have a short service life and low power output. Therefore, China is still relying on Russian engines, which it uses in its J-20. Its most advanced military aircraft is threatened by vulnerable technologies and a gap in the supply chain.
But China seems to be solving the engine problem very soon. In March 2022, the South China Morning Post reported on the testing of a new WS-15 afterburner turbojet engine on a J-20 fighter jet. Thanks to this engine, the maneuverability and combat capabilities of the aircraft have improved.
The article also said that China would replace all Russian AL-31F engines with its WS-15s on the J-20. This may mean that China is becoming more confident in its jet engine manufacturing methods.
According to Kelly, such a phased approach will make it easier for China to switch from fifth-generation fighters to the sixth. American and British programs to develop sixth-generation fighter jets, on the contrary, are aimed at overtaking China and Russia in terms of fifth-generation aircraft.
In a July article on the 19fortyfive portal, British Air Chief Marshal Michael Wigston stated that his country was taking a revolutionary approach combining the use of a swarm of drones, drones and a next-generation manned platform. He stressed that the British program to create sixth-generation drones is focused on armament, interfacing systems in combat space and transmitting information on the network.
In the same article, Brent Eastwood was skeptical about the sixth-generation fighters. He wondered if they were even needed in modern warfare. In his opinion, the F-35 is already included in the international program, and their characteristics make it possible to do without a new generation of fighters.
He cited Israel as an example, noting that the F-35 already gives it air supremacy in the Middle East, even in comparison with such potential adversaries as Turkey and Saudi Arabia, which use Western Eurofighter Typhoon, F-15 and F-16 fighters.
But the capabilities of these fourth-generation Western fighters were demonstrated during tests in comparison with the F—35, which cannot be said about Chinese aircraft, about which nothing much is known yet, except for inexpensive export models - the best of the best in China.
Eastwood also noted that despite the huge variety of sixth-generation fighter concepts, these are aircraft with slightly improved characteristics of fifth-generation fighters, but with a very high price tag.
The expert said that such American fifth-generation fighters as the F-35 are already quite enough for air supremacy, and it would be wiser to invest more in them than to create new ones.
The United States remains confident that its leadership in fighter technology is not in danger yet. In a September article in The Warzone, the commander of the US Pacific Air Force, General Kenneth Wilsbach, said that the expansion of the Chinese fleet with J-20 fighters is "not something that you can lose sleep over." He also added that the United States is closely monitoring how China uses these J-20s.
In turn, the chief of Staff of the US Air Force, General Charles Brown, also downplayed the importance of the Chinese J-20. He said that the United States had the opportunity to track these fighters in close proximity with the F-35 over the East China Sea. The general noted the impressive command and control of the J-20.
At the same time, he stressed that although the United States had learned a lot after such rapprochements, he would "not worry too much" about the capabilities of the J-20.
Despite the fact that Brown and Kennett underestimated the J-20, the article notes that China's success in developing air-to-air missiles still caused concern to the United States and forced them to focus on creating an improved AIM-260 tactical missile.
Brown stressed that if the United States continues to work on the program to create sixth-generation NGAD fighters, they will be able to maintain air superiority over China.
But even if the US manages to deploy its fighter jets, the balance of air power in the Pacific region has probably already shifted towards China.
The Asia Times previously reported that the Americans in the region do not have enough fighters, the airframes are outdated, and the pilots are insufficiently trained, which means that such forces are not enough to continue deterring China in normal mode.
Even if the United States increases fighter production, accelerates the development of new airframes and pilot training, they risk confusing quantity with quality.
The United States underestimates China's fifth- and sixth-generation fighter programs and is pinning hope on its NGAD project, which is still under development. They deny the gap in fighter technology, although China has probably already eclipsed American air forces in the Pacific region.
