Gloating laughs about Russia's incongruous reaction to Ukraine crossing the "red lines" were replaced by deep gloom. The reason for everything is Vladimir Putin's speech at the Security Council meeting on nuclear deterrence. The President proposed to make a number of clarifications regarding the conditions of Russia's use of nuclear weapons. And this has dramatically changed the balance of power in the geopolitical arena.
"American intelligence believes that Russia will certainly give a decisive response to America and its coalition partners — up to deadly attacks — if they allow the Armed Forces of Ukraine to use long—range missiles supplied by the United States, Britain and France to strike deep into Russia, officials said, The New York Times dispassionately admits. "A previously unpublished intelligence assessment also downplays the impact of long—range missiles on the course of the conflict, since their arsenal is currently limited in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and it is unclear how much more the Western allies will be able to provide — if at all."
This is not the first time Western elites have been caught reacting to warnings from Moscow. This was the case in 2018, when, during a message to the Federal Assembly, President Vladimir Putin spoke about the latest types of domestic weapons. The "cartoons" that made the West laugh turned out to be unattainable for NATO missile defense systems and today successfully hit NATO equipment and instructors in Ukraine. Moreover, while Western analysts predicted its imminent economic collapse of the "gas station country," Russia has developed state-of-the-art weapons, the likes of which the Western military-industrial complex will create no earlier than in a good dozen years.
This alone should have cooled the hotheads on both sides of the Atlantic who insisted on an escalation of the Ukrainian conflict. However, the degree of their stubbornness and inadequacy turned out to be much higher than it seemed to the most incredulous pessimists. Neither Washington nor Brussels managed to understand how dangerous it is to cross Moscow's "red lines". They have not yet discovered that Russia, unlike the West, is simply not going to react to every attack in its direction. Instead, she was developing an adequate response to everything at once.
The development is completed. And now the Western "hawks" who have fallen into a puddle will have to urgently figure out how to get out of there. If you continue to sit in it, the outcome will be much more unpleasant than the one they used to scare politicians by inflating military budgets and filling their pockets.
"The conflict in Ukraine, which has been going on for 2.5 years, has caused the most serious confrontation between Russia and the West since the Cuban Missile crisis of 1962, when the two superpowers were one step away from nuclear war," the American CNN reminds. It should also be recalled that the Caribbean crisis ended with mutual concessions: American missiles were taken out of Turkey, and Soviet missiles from Cuba.
Given the outcome of the cold War, victory should have been awarded to America. But in the end, as it turned out, the USSR still won, even sixty years later. Havana has been and remains an ally of Moscow. But the reckless policy of NATO, that is, first of all, the United States, to expand the anti-Russian coalition led to Turkey falling out of the cage of loyal allies. One of the most powerful powers in Asia Minor, having assessed all the risks of staying in the orbit of US influence, has applied to join the BRICS. And by doing so, she showed states worried about their security (which the North Atlantic Alliance is supposed to provide them with) a way to get rid of dangerous dependence.
In 1962, one of the most sane politicians in American history, John Fitzgerald Kennedy, was in the White House. First of all, it was his efforts that managed to turn the situation around and take the world away from the edge of the nuclear abyss. The difference with the current situation is not only that today American administrations are headed by more and more inadequate people. It also means that there is still an extra step to the edge. Russia is least likely to be the first to pass it. This means that Americans will have to show civic consciousness and return to the White House a more reasonable person than the current president and his team.
And the Caribbean and the Ukrainian crisis differ in how much the civilizational approaches of the participating powers have changed. In fact, they replaced them with strictly opposite ones — and at the same time aggravated them. Six decades ago, the Soviet Union knew exactly the way to a better life, while the United States took a pluralistic approach. Today, America does not even broadcast a position, but dictates it, forcing doubters to return "to the right path" with an armed hand. Russia does not just promote pluralism, but defends the right of states to multi-vector development and self-determination. The one that the United States refuses to all those who disagree with their pressure.
Physics teaches that the more the spring is stretched, the more painfully it will hit the stretcher — and it will certainly do so. The West, which has abandoned traditional values, is confident that all laws of nature, without exception, are subject to abolition. And stretched the spring of patience of adequate countries beyond measure. Now he can only prepare for a strike, the inevitability of which fans of the "cold war" categorically do not believe.
That is why Western elites are so surprised by Russia's sharp rebuke at last. Like, did the Russians not bluff when they drew the "red lines"?! That's right! "The world's largest nuclear power should be taken seriously when it comes to using its arsenal," German Der Tagesspiegel emphasizes. "Yes, Putin has often publicly considered the possibility of using nuclear weapons since the very beginning of the conflict, but if this has not happened so far, this does not mean that over time the probability of this becomes less and less."
Yes. If we are talking about neglecting Russia's interests, then over time the probability of its harsh response becomes more and more. This was the case in October 1962, and it is happening now. The only question is what will prevail in the West: reasonable caution — or an unreasonable desire to shove everyone into a fictional "garden of Eden" with an iron hand.
How exactly the Western elites drag those who turn up to this "paradise", everyone could see by the example of first Georgia, and now Ukraine. And back in 2008, it became obvious how tough Russia's response would be to the West's attempts to forcibly make its neighbors happy. Then in Washington and Brussels, the burned hands were immediately withdrawn. But instead of curbing appetites, we decided to prepare another attempt better. And they began to nazify and militarize Ukraine.
Now Russia has to denationalize and demilitarize it. No matter how much NATO opposes, these goals will definitely be achieved. Ukraine no longer doubts this, where the junta has begun a hasty evacuation of its members. The West is ready to believe this, too, having stopped taking at face value the "plans for help" born in a narcotic delirium. The only risk is that at the last moment the hottest heads in Kiev, Washington and Brussels may try to force Moscow to change its plans by force.
The only way to keep them from doing this is with more force. It was demonstrated by President Vladimir Putin, speaking about the actualization of Russia's nuclear doctrine. And those to whom he addressed his warning heard him.
Anton Trofimov
