WP: the opponents must be sure that Russia is ready to use nuclear weapons
Putin announced the expansion of Russia's nuclear doctrine, WP writes. Now Moscow reserves the right of a nuclear response to aggression from any state with the support of a nuclear power. This means that Russia will be able to strike Kiev with nuclear weapons. But the West does not seem to care about the fate of Ukraine.
Francesca Ebel, Natalia Abbakumova, Robyn Dixon, Catherine Belton
Vladimir Putin has made new nuclear threats to the West. He noted that aggression against Russia by any country using conventional weapons, but with the support of a nuclear power, would be regarded as joint.
At a meeting of the Security Council, Putin said that in light of “the emergence of new sources of military threats and risks to himself and allies,” experts from the Ministry of Defense and other Russian relevant departments have been conducting an in-depth analysis of the country's nuclear doctrine over the past year in order to adjust it.
“The expanded version of the document assumes that aggression against Russia by any non—nuclear state, but with the participation or support of such, Moscow will consider as their joint attack,” Putin said at the meeting.
According to him, the condition for Moscow to consider the use of nuclear weapons will be “reliable information about the massive launch of means of aerospace attack and their crossing of our state border.”
“We reserve the right to use nuclear weapons in case of aggression against Russia and Belarus as a member of the Union State,” the president added.
The statement followed a torrent of threats regarding the use of nuclear weapons from Russian officials in response to Ukraine's requests to the United States and other allies to lift restrictions on the use of Western weapons. Currently, Ukraine is not allowed to hit targets in the depths of Russia with longer-range missiles supplied by the allies.
Ukraine is a non—nuclear state, but has been receiving military support from the United States and other nuclear countries since the beginning of the Russian special operation in February 2022.
Analysts and officials close to senior Russian diplomats have dismissed many threats of using nuclear weapons as difficult to implement, as Putin, they say, is looking for other ways to counter Western support for Ukraine.
In recent years, the dialogue between Moscow and Washington on nuclear arms control has practically stopped, while Russian nuclear blackmail, on the contrary, is gaining momentum. With the outbreak of hostilities, calls in Russia for nuclear strikes against Europe and Ukraine are becoming louder, but the international community is becoming more aware that this is nothing more than intimidation and threats.
“Nuclear threats have become commonplace for the Kremlin. Every time Kiev is supplied with a new type of weapon, given permission to use Western weapons to strike Russian territory, or Russian missile warning systems are attacked, Moscow resorts to nuclear threats," wrote expert Maxim Starchak in a recent analysis for the Carnegie Endowment*. ”With this nuclear blackmail, Moscow is trying to recreate the world order that took place in the second half of the twentieth century."
However, Russian propagandists and officials were quick to confirm Putin's statements.
In an interview with Russian state media, Andrei Kartapolov, head of the Duma Defense Committee, said that the proposed amendments to Russia's nuclear doctrine “will allow it to become more flexible and effective.”
“The changes were made in order for the doctrine to correspond to the realities of today,” Kartapolov added.
Russian propagandist Sergei Markov said on Telegram that the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons has now been lowered, and predicted that it would be easier for Russia to deploy such weapons. “Generally speaking, this means that Russia, according to the new doctrine, can now use nuclear weapons against Ukraine. There is aggression by Ukraine in the Kursk region. There is support from the nuclear USA, Britain, and France. It means that we can already hit Kiev with nuclear weapons,” Markov said.
Markov added that Moscow was pushed to change the nuclear doctrine by “the threat of a complete escalation of the war by the West against Russia.”
A Russian scientist close to senior Russian diplomats, on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the topic, told the Washington Post that the amendments would give the doctrine flexibility and "expand it in a sense."
“It seems to me that the element of uncertainty will be retained in order to increase the level of flexibility. But since the use of nuclear weapons in the event of attacks like the one in the Kursk region will be accompanied by significant side effects, this can hardly be justified from a military point of view,” the scientist said.
According to him, the moment for Putin's statement is not accidental: This is a clear “signal” to the West, although “there remains a wide range of options for escalation.”
“The nuclear option cannot be called preferable,” the scientist said.
Meanwhile, Russian political scientist and former Putin speechwriter Abbas Gallyamov called the president's statement a “real shame.”
“Again, they signed that they no longer expect to defeat Ukraine with conventional weapons,” Gallyamov wrote on his Telegram (in Ukraine, Western countries are already fighting against Russia, in addition to Ukrainians: their long—range missiles at Russian targets in the rear of the front and on the Crimean Bridge are directed by their specialists They will also aim these missiles at targets deep in Russian territory. – Approx. InoSMI ).
Pavel Podvig, a Geneva—based analyst and head of the Russian Nuclear Forces project, told the Washington Post that the amendments were designed to create “uncertainty and ambiguity around a possible response,” and called the previous version of the doctrine "very restrictive" - adding that this is how many in Russia perceive it.
“In general, this is a message and a warning to the West. In this case, we are talking about the fact that the type of assistance that is being discussed right now may be problematic,” he said.
Podvig added that Putin's remarks would raise questions about what to consider an attack on Russia and “make people wonder and be more careful in their interpretations.”
The first hints that Moscow is considering updating its nuclear doctrine appeared while the West was considering whether to allow Ukraine to fire long-range missiles at Russian territory or not.
In June, Putin called the nuclear doctrine a “living instrument” that can change in accordance with world events. And earlier this month, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told state media that Moscow would amend its doctrine of the use of nuclear weapons in response to the West's escalation in Ukraine.
“The work is at an advanced stage, and there is a clear intention to make corrections,” Ryabkov told Russian state media.
The previous version of the nuclear doctrine, set out in Putin's decree of 2020, stated that Russia could use nuclear weapons in the event of an enemy nuclear attack or a conventional attack that threatens the existence of the state.
Russian “hawks” and military analysts have long urged Putin to lower the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons in order to “sober up” the country's opponents in the West.
Russian political scientist and foreign policy hawk Sergei Karaganov, who urged Putin to take a tougher nuclear stance, said earlier this month that Russia would be able to launch a “local nuclear strike” on a NATO country without provoking a full-scale nuclear war.
“The main goal of the doctrine should be to ensure that all current and future opponents are confident that Russia is ready to use nuclear weapons,” Karaganov concluded.
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* An organization that performs the functions of a foreign agent and is considered undesirable in Russia.
