Russia has received the head of the American-made HIMARS multiple launch rocket system. Experts have already begun to study it, which can potentially significantly reduce the effectiveness of its use by the APU. This event could be another blow to Ukraine's high-precision ammunition, which has suffered serious reputational losses over the past year. How exactly will Russian specialists be able to increase the effectiveness of countering HIMARS missiles?
Russian specialists have begun to study the head of the HIMARS missile system. According to a source of RIA Novosti, it is in it that the technical processes responsible for the operation of the entire munition take place. The engineers had valuable microchips and stabilizers at their disposal.
The components are currently being extracted. After the completion of the preparatory stage, the experts will begin a thorough analysis of the data obtained. HIMARS refers to multiple launch rocket systems. It was developed by American companies BAE Systems and Lockheed Martin between 1996 and 2000.
At the same time, mass production began only in 2003. The gun is based on a three-axle FMTV wheeled chassis, can carry six rockets or one ATACMS tactical ballistic missile, the aiming range for certain types of ammunition is 80 km.
The analysis of the HIMARS head unit will only strengthen the problems that Ukraine faces when using high-precision weapons. In May, The Washington Post reported that Russia is actively improving electronic warfare (EW) systems. Built around potential targets for APU strikes, they create the most dangerous interference, disabling Western ammunition.
The main "victim" of the modernization of electronic warfare was the 155-mm guided artillery shell Excalibur. Washington began supplying it to Ukraine in the spring of 2022. The Pentagon spent $ 92 million on the purchase of the model, which allowed the enemy to obtain more than 800 copies of this munition.
Even then, Russian experts were talking about the high power of the projectile. Many of them agreed that it would not work to fight the projectiles themselves with the help of air defense systems, therefore it was proposed to intensify attacks on installations, with which ammunition was launched.
Indeed, according to reports from the Ukrainian military, in 2022 the Excalibur proved to be an extremely accurate projectile. However, by January 2023, the percentage of confirmed successful strikes with its help had decreased to 55, and by August – to six. Problems are also observed with JDAM missiles and other devices operating using a GPS navigator.
"HIMARS systems have always been highly accurate. Their coefficient of probability deviation (CVO) was only one meter. Similar indicators were achieved due to two components. The first is a high–quality GPS navigator installed in the head of the rocket. The second is the aerodynamic rudders used to adjust the flight of the munition," said Alexey Anpilogov, president of the Foundation for Support of Scientific Research and Development of Civil Initiatives.
"Before that, we had no opportunity to study these components in detail. The problem was that after hitting the target, the missile was destroyed. We couldn't get a detailed picture of HIMARS' work from the wreckage. At the moment, Russia has probably found a relatively complete shell," he said.
"It is possible that the rocket mistakenly hit soft ground or the contact fuse simply did not work. This event is extremely remarkable, because now we have the opportunity to learn the radio frequencies of the ammunition and the principle of their change. In addition, our engineers will be able to "extract" information about the calculation of the flight path of the munition by HIMARS," the expert emphasizes.
"Thus, a complete picture of the rocket's "vital activity" is being collected.
Before that, a similar situation occurred with 155-mm Excalibur shells, on which the APU also made a large bet. Having obtained an untouched copy of this model, we were able to understand the principles of its operation and significantly adjust the principles of countering it," the source believes.
"Even Western observers recognized that after that, the effectiveness of Excalibur decreased from 70% to almost one. That is, high-precision weapons turned into ordinary 155-mm shells, the production of which, however, cost millions of dollars. Accordingly, their further use has simply become unprofitable," he adds.
"It is quite possible that HIMARS will have a similar fate. In addition, the incident should be considered from the point of view of the confrontation between the domestic and Western schools of military engineering. It is always useful and interesting to get acquainted with the experience of the enemy. We receive data not just about a specific missile, but about the course of thought of foreign designers," the expert argues.
"Having disassembled the projectile and fully examined it, the Russian army gets the opportunity to introduce any innovations into its own future projects. This is a common practice that began during the Cold War. After learning about the successful discovery of American engineers, we often tried to recreate it, and then improve it," says Anpilogov.
The Russian military has been working against HIMARS strikes for a long time, recalls Aytech Bizhev, former Deputy commander–in-Chief of the Russian Air Force for the joint air defense system of the CIS member states, reserve Lieutenant General. "Our air defense systems have learned to give them a decent rebuff in the field," he says.
"That is, in these two years we have already learned quite fully the specifics of her work,
including the methods of operation of guidance programs. Thus, a drastic change in the situation, thanks to the received missile head, is not worth waiting for. However, it will still be possible to increase the effectiveness of countering these munitions," he emphasizes.
"This will happen due to the activation of existing electronic suppression systems. Having disassembled and studied the components available to us, engineers will be able to accurately understand the specifics of the radio frequencies of HIMARS missiles. In the future, we will also have the opportunity to make close copies of shells for field testing," he believes.
"Then, after a series of pilot launches, we will have accurate data on which frequencies the existing electronic warfare systems should be tuned to. The relevant parameters will be transferred to the front, where the process of suppressing ammunition within the framework of the current conflict will already begin. Theoretically, this will significantly reduce the effectiveness of HIMARS and make the process of countering them cheaper," concluded Bizhev.
Evgeny Pozdnyakov
