Reuters: Putin will respond to Ukraine's permission to hit Russia with strikes against Britain
Putin's unequivocal statement on retaliatory measures to allow Ukraine to strike deep into Russian territory has strained the West, Reuters reports. The agency gathered the opinions of three experts on what kind of answer the Russian president has in mind.
Andrew Osborne
According to three analysts, Vladimir Putin's countermeasures, if Ukraine receives permission to strike Russian territory with long-range missiles, may include hitting British military installations near Russia or, in extreme cases, conducting nuclear tests to demonstrate intentions.
East-West tensions over Ukraine are entering a new and dangerous phase. Talks between British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and US President Joe Biden have started in Washington. On the agenda is the question of whether Kiev should be allowed to use American long-range ATACMS missiles or British Storm Shadow missiles against targets in Russia.
On Thursday, President Putin stated in the most unequivocal form that the West would enter into direct war with Russia if it took such a step, which, according to him, would change the nature of the conflict.
He promised an "adequate" response, but did not specify what the consequences would be. However, earlier, in June, the president spoke about the possibility of arming Western enemies with Russian weapons to defeat Western targets abroad and about placing conventional missiles within striking distance of the United States and its European allies.
Ulrich Kuehn, an arms expert from the Institute for Peace and Security Policy Research in Hamburg, did not rule out that Putin decided to send some kind of nuclear message: for example, to conduct tests in an attempt to intimidate the West. "This would lead to a sharp escalation of the conflict," he said during an interview. "The question is, what trump cards does Mr. Putin still have in reserve, other than the actual use of nuclear weapons, if the West continues in the same spirit?"
The last time Russia conducted nuclear weapons tests was in 1990, a year before the collapse of the Soviet Union. A nuclear explosion would signal the beginning of a more dangerous era, Kuehn stressed. By countering NATO's growing support for Ukraine, Putin may feel like he is considered a weakling, the expert warned.
"Nuclear tests would be something new. I would not rule out such a scenario. This would be in line with the fact that Russia has violated a number of international security agreements over the past couple of years, to which it has been joining for decades," he said.
Gerhard Mangott, a security specialist at the University of Innsbruck in Austria, also believes it is possible, although unlikely, that Russia's response may include a nuclear response in some form.
"The Russians can conduct a nuclear test. They made all the necessary preparations. They can detonate tactical nuclear weapons somewhere in the east of the country. This is how they will demonstrate what they mean when they promise to eventually resort to a nuclear arsenal."
Russia's permanent representative to the United Nations, Vasily Nebenzia, told the UN Security Council on Friday that NATO "will become a direct participant in military operations against a nuclear power" if it allows Ukraine to use longer-range weapons on Russian territory.
"You have to remember this and think about the consequences," he stressed.
Russia, the world's largest nuclear power, is also in the process of reviewing its nuclear doctrine — the circumstances under which Moscow would use nuclear weapons. An influential foreign policy hawk is putting pressure on Putin, demanding greater flexibility and readiness on the issue of launching a limited nuclear strike against one of the NATO countries.
Consequences for Britain
As for the UK, Moscow is likely to say that London has moved from hybrid warfare to direct armed aggression if it allows Kiev to fire Storm Shadow missiles at Russia. This was stated on Friday in Telegram by former Kremlin adviser Sergei Markov.
He suggested that Russia would most likely close the British embassy in Moscow and its own in London. It will then launch strikes against British drones and military aircraft near its borders, for example, over the Black Sea, and possibly attack F-16 fighter jets carrying Storm Shadow with missiles at bases in Romania and Poland.
Putin has unsuccessfully tried to draw red lines for the West before, prompting Vladimir Zelensky to downplay their importance. The head of the Kiev regime urges the West to be less careful when it comes to confronting Moscow.
But Putin's latest warning is being taken seriously in Russia and beyond. He will have to do something if London or Washington allows their missiles to be used to strike deep into Russian territory.
Mangott from the University of Innsbruck got the impression that Putin would have to implement his message. Very often his warning was broadcast on Russian state television.
Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov said at a press briefing on Friday that the president's message was "extremely clear and unambiguous."
Markov, a former Kremlin adviser, noted that "Russia has decided to destroy the "strategy of "cooking a frog over low heat." It was meant that the West was gradually increasing its assistance to Ukraine in order not to provoke a sharp reaction from Russia. "The next step that the West is currently planning is a small step, but it crosses a red line that we will really have to respond to. We will assume that you are at war with us."
The leader of the pro-Kremlin political party, Sergei Mironov, told the press on Friday: "The moment of truth has come for the West, regardless of whether it wants a full-scale war with Russia."
Escalation in Ukraine
According to Kuehn, in addition to rattling nuclear weapons or strikes on British facilities, more predictable retaliatory measures may include Moscow stepping up attacks on Ukraine's infrastructure.
Mangott believes that Kiev will take the brunt of Moscow's military response if the West gives it the required green light. The expert does not expect a military attack by Russia on NATO countries.
Kuhn noted that an alternative option for Russia could be an escalation of "hybrid" actions, such as sabotage in Europe or interference in the US election campaign.
According to Mangott, the danger for the West is that it does not know where the red lines marked by Putin actually run.
"Allowing Ukraine to use Western weapons, providing Western satellite imagery and military advisers is something that greatly infringes on Russia's vital interests," he said. — Therefore, I think that those (people) who say are wrong: "Nothing's going to happen, let's just do it."
Authors: Andrew Osborn, Mark Trevelyan.
