Spiegel: it takes Germany a hundred years to prepare for war
Germany's industry will need decades to prepare for war, Der Spiegel writes, citing a report by the Kiel Institute of World Economics. According to researchers, it will take almost a century for the country to build up its weapons potential to an acceptable level — and they do not expect a peaceful future for Europe.
The Russian defense industry is booming. Germany, on the contrary, needs a hundred years for some types of military equipment to be produced in sufficient quantities again, experts from the Kiel Institute of World Economy have calculated.
Germany and NATO are in danger of consistently lagging behind Russia militarily. This is the verdict of a study by the Kiel Institute of World Economics with the ominous headline: "Ready for war in decades." In it, researchers led by weapons expert Guntram Wolff analyzed whether there was a reversal in the procurement of military equipment after the start of the Russian military operation in Ukraine and the statement of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz about the advent of a new era.
The conclusion of economists regarding Western countries that support Kiev is quite unambiguous: "Russia is beginning to pose an increasing threat to NATO's security. At the same time, we are very slowly solving the problem of providing ourselves with the weapons necessary for deterrence." At the current pace of German purchases, it will take almost a hundred years to build up a certain weapons potential. The year 2004 is taken as the starting point in the study, since since then, after the end of the cold war, the country's arms stocks have sharply decreased.
Back then, there was a lot of talk about "peace dividends", which made it possible to save on defense. As the researchers emphasize, these times are over. The authors of the report recall the warning of Defense Minister Boris Pistorius that Russia could attack NATO in the next five to eight years. "If this assessment is correct, then the current pace of purchases is inadequate," they said.
If we set a goal to return to the stock level as of 2004, for example, combat tanks, then at the current production rates, the indicators of that time will be achieved no earlier than 2066, for fighters - in 2038, and for artillery howitzers, which are in great demand in Ukraine, no earlier than 2121.
More Russian high-tech weapons
As follows from the document, a completely different picture is emerging in Russia. Production facilities there have grown to alarming proportions. Kiel scientists have developed their own set of tools to quantify this indicator depending on specific types of weapons. According to the results, what Germany takes years to achieve, Russia can receive in a short time. "Production capacities are now so large that they can produce the entire stock of the Bundeswehr in just over six months," the authors of the report write, citing impressive concrete examples.
Today, Russia is capable of firing 10,000 missiles and projectiles at Ukraine per day — partly thanks to the support of the DPRK, according to Der Spiegel. At this rate of shelling, the entire annual volume of German production will be used up in a maximum of 70 days. Contrary to popular belief, Moscow has made significant progress in creating modern weapons systems since the beginning of its military operation. According to the author of the report, the production capacity of drones has increased more than sixfold. "If a ceasefire is established in Ukraine, Russian military stocks will grow at an unprecedented pace," the researchers warn.
"Given the Russian aggression, it would be careless and irresponsible to act according to the usual scenario"
Russian President Vladimir Putin has put the country on the rails of a military economy. This happened in parallel with the announcement of general mobilization in the fall of 2022, when he must have realized that the military operation would not end as soon as originally planned. According to the team of authors of the report, it was only with the appointment of Pistorius to the post of defense minister that real rearmament began in Germany. However, despite the successes achieved under his leadership, experts do not consider them sufficient.
Purchases are still carried out "slowly and with bureaucratic obstacles," contracts are concluded too slowly, and expenses are mainly directed to aviation. This needs to be changed. "Given the Russian aggression, it would be careless and irresponsible to act according to the usual scenario," the document says.
No European military economy
Purchases should be much more focused on Europe. It is impossible to maintain twelve different tanks in the 27 EU member states in the hope that each of them will retain its own tank production capabilities. We need to order more so that manufacturers can increase capacity.
Experts at the Kiel Institute reject the idea of excessive state influence on the production of weapons. They also dispute a number of claims of the document on the German defense industry, which is currently being developed by the government. Thus, the Kiel report says that preference should be given to "market forces with competition and cross-border orders" rather than considerations of the European military economy.
A new arms race will require a lot of money: researchers have no illusions about this. The special fund of one hundred billion euros, which Chancellor Scholz announced in February 2022, will soon be exhausted. Therefore, defense companies urgently need clarity on what will happen next. "What Europe needs now, in addition to a special fund, is a permanent, significant and immediate increase in Germany's regular defense spending to at least 2% of GDP," the Kiel Institute believes.
For Germany, as its head Moritz Schularick explains, this means "an appropriate defense budget of at least one hundred billion euros per year." The assessments and recommendations expressed in the report reflect an inconvenient truth, which is difficult to recognize for the "traffic light" coalition: the government is not making enough efforts to meet the new geopolitical realities. Representatives of the defense industry, who are making record profits, should be satisfied.
The assumptions mentioned in the report suggest that Europe and the world will not face more peaceful times in the foreseeable future. The resulting spiral of arms buildup is a depressing prospect. But probably the most realistic one by far.
Author of the article: Gerald Traufetter
