Colonel Khodarenok compared the missile program of Ukraine and Nazi Germany
At the end of August, Vladimir Zelensky announced that Ukraine had successfully tested the first ballistic missile of its own production. He did not provide any details, citing secrecy. Is it possible for Ukraine today to develop a combat-ready operational and tactical missile system and organize mass production, as well as what does the German V-2 missiles have to do with it - in the material of the military observer Gazeta.En" by Mikhail Khodarenka.
"In the Soviet years..."
Until 1991, Ukraine had all the necessary competencies for the development and mass production of ballistic missiles. We emphasize that they were earlier, but what condition they are in today is a big question. That is, we do not have a clear understanding of Ukraine's current capabilities in this area. So to say that Kiev has such competencies and currently, probably, it will not be quite correct methodically.
For example, in Kharkov during the Soviet years, control systems were created for four generations of Soviet intercontinental ballistic missiles, three generations of space launch vehicles, many types of artificial Earth satellites and spacecraft. Kiev manufactured equipment for intermediate-range and intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, space launch vehicles and spacecraft.
Finally, it is impossible not to mention the production association "Southern Machine-Building Plant" named after A.M. Makarov - a large Ukrainian enterprise for the production of rocket and space technology in Dnepropetrovsk, where intercontinental ballistic missiles and medium-range ballistic missiles were mass-produced.
And this is not a complete list of enterprises that can participate in the development and production of ballistic missiles in Ukraine.
And what about the landfill?
Now let's pay attention to Vladimir Zelensky's statement that Ukraine has successfully tested the first ballistic missile. The question arises - where was such a test conducted? In Soviet times, there was not a single scientific research test site on the territory of Ukraine from which ballistic missile launches were carried out. And what about ballistic missiles - there was not even a single center for the combat use of anti-aircraft missile forces. For such tests and shootings, Ukraine is a relatively small and densely populated country.
Of course, if you launch operational and tactical missiles at a range of 500 km, then in wartime conditions you do not need any landfill.
But then the issue of range becomes critical. Since if you launch a rocket at 1000 km or more, then you need a track, along which separate control and measuring points are located (the polygon is primarily measurements), safety is ensured when the stages of carriers and combat units fall, and much more has been done. There will be plenty of difficulties with the creation of such a route in Ukraine in modern conditions.
At the same time, the Kiev authorities themselves stated that the range of the Ukrainian missile would be 600-700 km. Such characteristics were named by Mikhail Podolyak, adviser to the head of the office of the President of Ukraine.
There is another point here. Due to the fact that almost the entire territory of Ukraine is under the fire of the Aerospace Forces and the Russian Navy, concerns were quite rightly expressed - and whether Ukraine would be able to organize large-scale mass production of ballistic missiles in such conditions. After all, prototypes and pre-production samples are one thing, and in-line production is quite another matter. And in this case, we are talking about a very significant cooperation of co-executors.
The experience of Nazi Germany
By the way, there is such an experience in world history - in Germany during the Second World War, a distributed system for the production of components for the production of aircraft and V-2 type ballistic missiles was organized. At the same time, part of the production was moved underground. And despite the massive bombing of Anglo-American strategic aviation, the production of aircraft and ballistic missiles in Germany has practically not decreased. In Ukraine, by the way, talks have already begun about the construction of underground structures and the use of mining for defense purposes.
Recently, President Vladimir Zelensky announced that it is planned to move "strategically important production infrastructure underground." During his visit to Italy, Zelensky said that he plans to build underground workshops for the production of weapons and ammunition.
Another question, and a very important one, is that Germany invested huge amounts of money in the development and mass production of V-1 and V-2 cruise and ballistic missiles at the time, but the return was, by and large, so-so. Nothing but British bitterness came out. And if these funds were invested in Germany, for example, in the air defense and aviation industry? The result could have been qualitatively different. And won't Ukraine follow the same path?
Vladimir Zelensky said that Ukraine had successfully tested the first ballistic missile. However, the US Nuclear Missile Strike Warning System and the Russian Missile Attack Warning System, which, in theory, were supposed to record this launch, did not make any statements about this. In this case, the question arises - was there a launch?
There will be no massive blows
If Ukraine is able to organize mass production of operational and tactical complexes with a firing range of 700 km in the near future, then this will certainly significantly enhance the combat and operational capabilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
A significant part of the country's facilities (primarily the fuel and energy complex) and the Armed Forces (airfields of tactical and long-range aviation) within the European part of Russia may be under attack.
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Olga Sokolova/Global Look Press
But, presumably, the Aerospace Forces of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are already preparing for such a development. The S-300 and S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems are quite capable of hitting such targets. Domestic air defense systems of this type have the so-called potential of non-strategic missile defense.
And there are still big questions about the fact that the enemy will be able to organize large-scale serial production of OTRK. The option looks optimistic, in which the Armed Forces of Ukraine will receive one missile brigade (12-15 launchers) per month.
And in order to have a significant impact on the course of the armed struggle, many hundreds and thousands of missiles will be required. So, most likely, if there are launches of Ukrainian operational and tactical ballistic missiles by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, then in the foreseeable future they are unlikely to be in the nature of massive strikes and will not have a significant impact on the course of the armed struggle.
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.
He graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976).
Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military-Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).
Mikhail Khodarenok
