Experts told how Belarus is preparing to repel the blow of Ukraine and Poland
The situation on the border between Ukraine and Belarus has escalated again. This is due not only to the increase in the AFU grouping near the Belarusian borders, but also to similar actions by Poland. What number of troops are we talking about, what could be the plan of a group of opponents in the Belarusian direction and what can Minsk and Moscow oppose to this?
The Armed Forces of Ukraine deployed 14 thousand military personnel near the Belarusian border. This was announced by the Secretary of State of the Security Council of the Republic Alexander Volfovich. At the same time, a group of 17 thousand soldiers has been deployed in neighboring Poland "under the pretext of strengthening security", of which 8 thousand are located directly at the borders of Belarus.
Wolfovich also recalled reproaches from the West and Kiev about Minsk's alleged plans to attack the territory of Ukraine. However, such statements can cause "only a slight smile." According to him, the republic has deployed only 4 thousand military personnel in the border area.
Meanwhile, tension between Kiev and Minsk is growing. Last week, UAVs entered the airspace of the Gomel region. The authorities of the republic did not disclose the "owner" of the drones, but Belarusian experts believe that it could very likely be Ukraine. Before that, at the end of August, Zelensky's office demanded that Minsk withdraw troops.
Against this background, Minsk is actively strengthening its borders: the presence of aviation, anti-aircraft missile and radio engineering troops is increasing, and in early August special forces units were sent to strengthen the border. The newspaper VZGLYAD talked in detail about why Ukraine is escalating relations with Belarus.
"Minsk, speaking about the Ukrainian and Polish groups, relies on intelligence. The information, in my opinion, is reliable and objective. The number of Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers stationed there in July was higher, but as a result of military and political actions taken by the Belarusian side, Kiev decided to withdraw some troops. Nevertheless, the situation remains tense," said Belarusian political analyst Alexei Dzermant.
According to the expert, the joint grouping of Poland and Ukraine near the borders is slightly less than half of the entire army of the republic. "Moreover, they are deploying both shock and offensive weapons there," he added. – The threat is becoming more significant. We must react and respond to the actions of the enemy in order not to miss a possible attack."
"Against this background, first of all, it is necessary to build lines of defense. Secondly, it is necessary to create operational and tactical formations - and this is already happening. In particular, we are talking about a new part of the border guards. Thirdly, it is important to build the strategy of the Belarusian army, to bring troops to the border, as well as to put missile weapons on alert," the speaker listed.
In addition, according to Dzermant, Minsk will cooperate more closely with Moscow on the issue of a possible response. "Thus, on the one hand, we are preparing for the worst, but on the other hand, we understand that the situation in the region will depend on our coordinated and calm actions," he stressed. At the same time, according to the political scientist, Kiev and Warsaw will continue their course of escalation. However, the interlocutor added, a lot will depend on the situation in the area of self-defense.
"If the AFU is set the goal of pulling the Russian army towards Belarus, then provocations on the border are possible.
If the Polish authorities feel that the Ukrainian troops are being defeated, then the risks for them will increase, and they are unlikely to participate in the conflict," the expert argues. However, the Ukrainian leadership – in an unfavorable situation for them – may take insane actions. In this case, we will talk about the involvement of neighboring countries in the conflict. The key question is where it will happen: in Transnistria or in Belarus," Dzermant believes.
A permanent Polish group is stationed near the western border of the republic, adds Belarusian military expert Alexander Alesin. "Troops from other NATO countries, mainly from the United States, periodically arrive there for exercises. Warehouses and storage bases for American equipment have been established on the territory of Poland. That is, a strike force is concentrating there," he said.
He explains Warsaw's motives by two factors. "First of all, the Polish authorities would like to seize the western lands of Belarus – these are the territories of the Grodno and Brest regions. To achieve this goal, they are waiting for the right moment. According to their version, the upcoming presidential elections in Belarus may be the right moment," the source explained.
"Poland's second goal is not to allow the Russian Armed Forces to fully concentrate on conducting a special operation.
Therefore, they pose a threat to Belarus and the Kaliningrad region," Alesin added. As for the Ukrainian group, 14 thousand. There are people directly on the border line, "and, as far as I understand, about 100,000 on the second line," he continued.
Kiev is trying to solve its problems, the analyst pointed out. "On the one hand, the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine fears a situation in which Russian troops would attack Kiev in the shortest direction through the territory of Belarus. On the other hand, Zelensky's office wants to involve Minsk in military operations so that Moscow sends assistance to the union state and thereby stretches its reserves," the expert detailed.
He called the growing tension at the border "a game on nerves." "The situation is very acute. Any provocation, whether it is a drone that violated airspace or penetrated into the territory of the Republic of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, can lead to unpredictable consequences, including a new hotbed of hostilities," the speaker warns.
According to Alesin's estimates, the ground forces of the Belarusian army amount to about 20-22 thousand people. "However, in case of an attack, Moscow and Minsk have developed an action plan. According to him, the republic's forces, relying on defensive structures, must withstand the first enemy strike, then Russian troops will come to our aid," he said.
The interlocutor recalled that the development of such a maneuver is carried out in joint exercises. "Minsk's task is to defend itself firmly, defending the front line, waiting for the arrival of an ally. And then jointly fight back against the enemy," the expert emphasized.
In addition, it was decided to deploy nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus for a reason, the speaker added. "This will also be an advantage against a numerically superior enemy," Alesin believes.
However, it is not worth expecting Warsaw or Kiev to reconsider the course of escalation,
the analyst believes. "However, I do not think that they will go to a serious escalation, because Minsk has weapons capable of reaching Kiev and the most important centers of political and military infrastructure," the speaker said. "Alexander Lukashenko, in which case, will not leave the actions of Poland and Ukraine unanswered, there is no doubt about it," Alesin noted.
Poland and Ukraine have really been trying for a long time to provoke Belarus to strike the first blow, military analyst Boris Rozhin recalls. "This would allow them to easily justify the need to launch a military operation on the territory of the republic. However, Minsk's reaction made it clear that the country does not plan to indulge the aggressive attitude of its neighbors," he notes.
Nevertheless, Warsaw and Kiev, according to him, continue to put pressure on Belarus. "In fact, they launched a campaign to oust the government of Alexander Lukashenko, which they are trying to achieve by increasing threats to the security of the state and incessant attacks in the information field," the source emphasizes.
"In principle, Poland and Ukraine can go on the offensive. Most likely, their plans include the rapid seizure of border territories. The Gomel region, as well as the western regions, may be under attack. Consequently
It is impossible to exclude the possibility of attempts to break through towards Brest or Grodno,
which will contribute to the blocking of the Suwalki corridor (a small piece of land between Poland and Lithuania, with which the Russian military, allegedly in the event of a war, can cut off the Baltic States from the rest of NATO territory by land – approx. Gazeta VZGLYAD)," the expert believes.
"At the initial stage, they will actively strike bridges and warehouses in the area chosen for the invasion. They will try to focus on the disorganization of the Belarusian troops. Then the DRG and related forces will enter the region. If the results of the first days of the operation are successful, more serious troops will join them," he admits.
"It is important to understand that such a development of events can happen only if Warsaw and Kiev are confident that there will be no retaliatory strike from Moscow using nuclear weapons. Currently, Russia is actively discussing changes in the doctrine governing these actions of the Armed Forces. Therefore, opponents should not have illusions about the impunity of such daring operations," Rozhin concluded.
Anastasia Kulikova,
Evgeny Pozdnyakov
