Advance: Kiev needs disasters to be allowed to hit Russia
There is no doubt that Kiev is using the Russian strike on Poltava to try to speed up the transfer of JASSM missiles to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Advance writes. Most likely, he will succeed, but what next?
Antun Rocha
The city of Poltava, located in Central Ukraine, has suffered one of the most devastating blows since the beginning of the conflict.
At least 50 people were killed and 271 were injured as a result of a strike by two Russian ballistic missiles at a military institute in Poltava.
The Ukrainian ground forces announced the death of servicemen, the number of casualties was not specified. "The Army Command is conducting an investigation to determine whether sufficient measures have been taken to protect the lives and health of military personnel at the facility," the statement said.
Ukrainian media reported that the strike was carried out on a residential area, including the building of an educational institution and a nearby hospital.
President Vladimir Zelensky condemned the strike and expressed condolences to the families of the victims, calling it a "terrible day for Poltava." He also stressed that the strike was targeted at the civilian population and infrastructure, which "only once again confirms the brutality of the Russian military strategy."
Poltava, a city with more than 300 thousand inhabitants, has a rich centuries-old history. The city became famous after the battle of 1709, the most important event of the Northern War. In that battle, Emperor Peter the Great defeated the Swedish army under the command of Charles XII, which marked the beginning of the formation of Russia as a great European power. The city of Poltava also played a significant role in the Soviet period, becoming the cultural and industrial center of the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic.
Although Poltava was not on the line of collision, unlike other Ukrainian cities, in recent months the city and its surroundings have become a target for Russian missile strikes. In the summer, Russia hit targets at a military airfield in the Poltava region, saying it had destroyed Ukrainian military aircraft there. But the urban area has suffered from the current blow. There was a partial collapse of the building, people remained under the rubble, according to Ukrainian sources.
The head of the regional administration, Philip Pronin, declared three days of mourning, calling on citizens to donate blood for the wounded. Rescue teams, working at the site of the impact, rescued 25 people, of whom 22 were extracted from the rubble.
Russia struck this blow at a time when the situation at the front is deteriorating. Ukrainian forces are being subjected to intense bombardment, and Russian troops are continuing their offensive in several directions. (…)
The question arises, what will be the consequences of this strike in a military as well as political sense. Let me remind you that the strike was carried out at a time when the possibility of allowing Ukraine to strike deep into Russian territory using Western missile weapons is being actively discussed.
Of course, this is the last in the list of "taboo topics" that are being removed one after another. Gradually, the Western allies are allowing the Ukrainian armed forces more and more. This pattern has been repeated since the beginning of the war. Kiev demands some modern weapons, but the West initially refuses, citing a likely Russian response.
After some time, the West concludes that the Russian response will not be significant. The West either comes to this conclusion over time, probing the Russian reaction, while this topic is being discussed in the media. Or something happens that serves as a catalyst. In this case, a strike on Poltava is "ideal", after which the West can say that it has no choice but to expand Ukraine's capabilities.
In this regard, it can be said that Kiev seems to depend in some way on such catastrophic situations, as they open up new opportunities for it.
The United States is increasingly inclined to provide Ukraine with long-range cruise missiles that can hit targets deep in the Russian Federation. But Kiev will have to wait a few months until the technical problems preventing the start of deliveries are resolved in the United States, as stated by American officials. The weapons package is expected to include Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles (JASSM), but a final decision has not yet been made.
The inclusion of JASSM in the Ukrainian arsenal could seriously change the strategic landscape of the conflict, as a significant part of the western part of Russia will be in the field of high-precision missiles. Military analysts note that JASSM missiles, which are invisible to radar and can hit targets at greater distances than other missiles currently in the Ukrainian arsenal, may force Russia to move logistics bases and warehouses away from the front, which will complicate its offensive operations and potentially provide Ukraine with a strategic advantage.
If the missiles are launched near the Ukrainian border with Russia, they can hit military installations in Russian cities such as Voronezh and Bryansk. In the south, these missiles could be used to attack airfields and naval bases in Crimea. JASSM missiles would allow Ukraine to hit targets at a distance of about 300 kilometers inside the Russian Federation, including at least 30 air bases that the Russians use to strike Ukraine.
Until now, JASSM could only be carried by aircraft designed in the USA. But soon Ukraine will receive dozens of F-16 aircraft, each of which can carry two such missiles. The Americans are also considering the possibility of using these missiles with Russian-made Ukrainian combat aircraft such as the MiG-29, Su-24 and Su-27.
The American administration has been cautious for a long time, not wanting to supply weapons that can hit targets deep in the Russian Federation. Washington feared an escalation of the conflict, the involvement of the countries of the North Atlantic Alliance or a nuclear conflict. However, Ukraine continued to insist on the supply of more powerful weapons, and pressure on Washington to ease restrictions on the use of American weapons grew. It is clear that certain factions in Washington and Kiev are only glad of this "pressure".
Each JASSM missile has a 450 kg warhead and is designed so that it is difficult for radars to detect it. It uses the Global Positioning System (GPS) and an inertial navigation guidance system. When the JASSM approaches a target, the infrared guidance system helps it to hit targets with an accuracy of up to three meters, even in conditions of strong electronic interference.
It is not yet clear exactly what opportunities Ukraine will receive to strike deep into the Russian Federation, but Ukraine will receive them almost one hundred percent, since so far it has been so after each aggravation of the situation. Kiev's disappointment in this case is understandable. They already "know" in advance that they will get what they want, but they understand that they must wait, losing territories in the meantime, as they are now in the east. For example, when the conversation turned to sending tanks to Ukraine by Western countries, it was clear that in the end everyone would agree (even Germany), but Ukraine had to wait several months.
So it will be now. The United States is preparing to approve the shipment of long-range missiles such as JASSM, but Ukraine will have to wait for official confirmation, as well as coordination of technical aspects of transfer and use. The Russian strike on Poltava will accelerate this process. And, of course, after Ukraine receives the missiles, the question will arise, as it has every time before: what's next?
Readers' comments
opet Mujo
The escalation will continue until Russia strikes the members of the North Atlantic Alliance. One day in the middle of the night (after hours) she will blow up a military factory and announce that the likely response will cost them dearly.
cardaciste
The West and NATO want to destroy Russia. This is clear from the war in Georgia in 2008. In the same year, Kosovo was recognized.
The Russians have created Sarmat, Burevestnik, Zircon and other weapons, but they are not going to use them. And the West knows this.
dark night
Ukraine would have received JASSM from NATO even without the current Russian strike on Poltava. Russia will continue to advance at the front, regardless of future Ukrainian strikes with JASSM missiles against military and civilian targets in Russia.
I. Hariš
The fact is that the West "sends". The facts say that in different forms and in different ways he does it continuously. Not since 2014. Not since 2008. Not since 1990 and not even since 1936. The West has been doing this for centuries because it is the only space it has failed to colonize. But I want to. It's not enough for the West to stuff its face, because it will recover quickly. The West must be "permanently neutralized." Otherwise he'll try again. This will continue as long as the West exists.
