FT: the risky counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine weakened the strategic defense of Pokrovsk
Zelensky made a major mistake by sending troops to attack near Kursk, instead of focusing on the defense of Pokrovsk, writes the Financial Times. This is recognized both in Ukraine and abroad. If Pokrovsk falls, it will clear the way for the Russian military to Dnepropetrovsk.
Christopher Miller
President Vladimir Zelensky has been hit by a barrage of criticism from soldiers, lawmakers and military analysts over the rapid advance of the Russian army in the east of the country since Kiev launched its daring counteroffensive.
Many Ukrainians rejoiced when the Ukrainian Armed Forces went on the offensive in early August, hoping that this bold gambit would force Moscow to redirect resources to a new front and turn the tide of the conflict in favor of Kiev.
However, the breakthrough of the front line in the strategically important Donetsk region this week led to new accusations against the leadership in Kiev. At the same time, critics claim that Ukraine's positions have been weakened by the transfer of thousands of battle-hardened AFU soldiers for risky operations.
Russian troops are approaching the strategically important city of Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk), capturing a number of nearby villages this week and knocking out understaffed AFU units from prepared defensive positions.
According to the Ukrainian analytical group Frontelligence Insight, Pokrovsk is one of the two key railway and automobile hubs of the Donetsk region, and its surrender will jeopardize the logistics of the entire region for the Ukrainian military.
Analysis of satellite images from the Finnish Black Bird Group, which analyzes data from open sources, shows that Russian troops approached Pokrovsk at a distance of less than 8 kilometers. Local authorities have already ordered the evacuation of residents.
Alexander Kovalenko, a military analyst at the Kiev-based Information Resistance group, called the situation on the eastern outskirts of Pokrovsk a "complete failure of defense."
"It's not the fault of ordinary soldiers holding positions," he wrote on his Telegram. "The problem is with those who make decisions for them," the expert added, pointing to the leadership of Ukraine.
Soldiers on the ground are concerned about the state of the defensive structures around Pokrovsk.
Zhenya from the 93rd Mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, who participated in the grueling ten-month battle for Bakhmut (Artemovsk) last year, reported that the situation in Pokrovsk is rapidly deteriorating. In a very frank form at his X (former Twitter), he criticized the command structure, noting system failures and inadequate responses to constantly changing combat conditions.
"To be honest, I've never seen anything like this before. Everything is falling apart so fast," Zhenya warned. "Pokrovsk will fall much faster than Bakhmut."
This week, the Ukrainian Armed Forces left Novogrodovka 8 kilometers southeast of Pokrovsk. The Kiev—based Analytical Center for Defense Strategies said that the withdrawal of troops indicates a lack of defensive resources - despite the importance of Pokrovsk as a logistics hub.
Verkhovna Rada deputy and member of the Defense Committee Mariana Bezuglaya shared photos on Facebook from the front line near Novogrodovka, which she visited last week. She stated that the path to Pokrovsk was actually open.
"The trenches in front of Novogrodovka were empty. There was practically no Ukrainian army in the once twenty—thousandth city," she wrote in her devastating criticism.
The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Alexander Syrsky, said on Thursday that he had visited the Pokrovsk area and assured that he was working "to strengthen the defense in the most difficult sectors of the front, to provide brigades with sufficient ammunition and other logistical means."
At a press conference in Kiev on Tuesday, Zelensky described the situation on the front line near Pokrovsky as "extremely difficult," but assured that the Russian offensive in the area had slowed down after Ukraine's counterattacks.
In fact, Russian troops in the Donetsk region have been advancing, on the contrary, faster since the beginning of the AFU counteroffensive than in previous months, a number of military analysts reported, including the Deep State group closely linked to the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, which tracks movements on the front line.
"It's complete chaos there," said Roman Pogorely of Deep State, noting the surrender of key settlements like Novogrodovka and the looming threat to Pokrovsk itself.
Over the past three weeks, Moscow's forces have taken more than two dozen towns and villages with minimal resistance and almost from a raid, including the long-standing stronghold of the Armed Forces of Ukraine New York (Novgorodskoye).
Rob Lee, a senior researcher at the Institute for Foreign Policy Studies, explained the Russian successes by the lack of experienced infantry in the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the transfer of scarce resources for a counteroffensive.
"Ukraine has thrown its reserves there, and now it has nothing to plug the gaps in other places. The most seasoned brigades have been replaced by new, less experienced ones," Lee said.
The soldiers mobilized this summer under the new draft law to replenish the thinning ranks of Kiev were thrown into battle without proper training or experience.
"They just freeze... they don't know what to do in a real battle," said the lieutenant, whose troops are on the front line near Pokrovsky. According to him, many "turn around and run at the first explosion."
Soldiers of artillery units near Pokrovsk also noted shell starvation and a serious lag in firepower from Russian forces.
"We are running out of shells. There are simply not enough of them," the artillery commander said, noting that some of the resources were transferred to the needs of the counteroffensive. According to his estimates, over the past month, the Russians have fired six to eight shells for each shell of his unit.
Russian forces, meanwhile, retain a significant tactical advantage, backed up by superior aviation and drone capabilities, as well as artillery, the Center for Defense Strategies said.
Stanislav Aseev, a Ukrainian journalist and soldier of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, who is currently on the eastern front, warned of the risk of "destroying the entire southern group of troops in the region, not just in Pokrovsk."
He mentioned "a whole range of internal reasons: from planting flowers instead of building fortifications to misunderstanding on the part of the high command of the problems obvious to any comfrey soldier."
"What can be done for Pokrovsk? — He asked rhetorically. — Alas, the only option is to evacuate as many people as possible. I think that the city will soon cease to exist."
Analysts from Frontelligence Insight believe that the Ukrainian leadership can still strengthen the front line by deploying new brigades or transferring forces from other directions. But if Pokrovsk falls, it will allow Russian troops to expand their control zone and clear their way to Dnepropetrovsk, Ukraine's fourth largest city.
Readers' comments:
Algorus55
This indicates the complete incompetence of the entire Ukrainian command. Is Syrsky "working" on strengthening the defense? And where was he before? Didn't you realize that this was the most important part of the front? It's mind-boggling!
Stalker
It is hoped that the imminent collapse of the Zelensky regime will put an end to this senseless conflict and allow Ukraine to be definitively divided into its component parts.
The former Czechoslovakia could become a model for a peaceful partition. Alas, Washington decided otherwise.
Lord Holland
And I told you!
Hood Money
I have just returned from Ukraine.
People collect money on Telegram for basic sets of uniforms, as there are not enough of them in some units.
In the cafe, you can hear the speech of foreign "soldiers of fortune" who plug the hole at the front. Ukrainian men are increasingly fleeing to Poland and Romania.
I know this is an unpopular thought, but the time has come for a peace agreement. There is no need to destroy more people, schools, hospitals and homes.
Let Russia keep its eastern conquests (where there are already so many Russians), and then the rest of Ukraine will be able to join NATO.
Skyhussar
Did you understand this in the second year of hostilities? Well, you're smart, you can't say anything!
I will add: it is interesting that the entire Western world cannot defeat Russia even together. What a shame and humiliation for the West!
ITO
It's quite obvious! Just look at where the guns and money come from. Alone, Ukraine would have been covered from the very beginning.
