Oleg Smirnov: "No one will buy a new aircraft that is worse than the An-2 for half a billion, and carriers will stop flights to remote areas"
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| In the photo: a new light Russian aircraft LMS-901 "Baikal" at the production complex of JSC Ural Civil Aviation Plant (UZGA). |
| Source: Donat Sorokin/TASS |
The domestic Baikal aircraft, which is to replace the old An-2, will cost 3-4 times more expensive in 2025 than the manufacturer promised. And it is 50 times more expensive than its second—hand biplane predecessors.
The Northern and Far Eastern airlines feel deceived, and the Ministry of Industry and Trade feels embarrassed.
The minimum price of the Baikal aircraft, designed to carry up to 9 passengers or up to 2 tons of cargo over a distance of up to 1.5 thousand km (or up to 3 thousand km with a lower load), is 455 million rubles in 2025, and then it will increase by 4% or more annually.
This was announced by the State Transport Leasing Company (STLC) in letters to potential operators of the Baikal boards.
According to GTLK, the leasing rate for one Baikal in 2025 will amount to 5.4 million rubles per month, which will allow the buyer- air carrier to take ownership of the aircraft in 10 years.
Two words about the predecessor of Baikal. The AN-2 is a long—lived aircraft of our fleet. The first "swallows" were released in 1947, in total they produced about 12 thousand pieces. Since 1971, the production of the An-2 in the USSR ceased, but moved to Poland and China. These planes were made there until the 1980s. Then the An-2 was replaced in China with a purely Chinese analogue, which is still being produced today.
Now there are several hundred An-2 aircraft in service, the oldest of which is already 70+, and the youngest — built in 1985 — is for sale for 10 million rubles.
The carrier can only choose what is more pleasant to him — to pay 10 million rubles at a time, go for 5.4 million rubles over 120 months. Although the new Baikal, it would seem, should be better than the old biplane. But this is not a fact either.
The Ministry of Industry and Trade did not expect that Baikal would turn out to be so "golden". In the terms of the competition, which was conducted by the Ministry between future manufacturers, it was indicated that the price of the aircraft should not exceed 120 million rubles.
According to the comprehensive program for the development of the Russian aviation industry until 2030, it is planned to supply five Baikal carriers next year, 25 cars per year in 2026-2029, and 34 cars in 2030 (a total of 139 aircraft).
The only question is whether there will be buyers at the new price, the validity of which, by the way, the manufacturer has already proved to both the Ministry of Industry and Trade and the GTLK.
The saddest thing is that with the promising Ladoga and Osvey aircraft, the story is absolutely similar, only their release is also delayed in time.
Oleg Smirnov, a member of the Public Council of the Federal Service for Supervision of Transport, Honored Pilot of the USSR, told the Free Press whether small but extremely necessary regional air carriers, which Baikal is focused on, will survive in such conditions.
"SP": Oleg Mikhailovich, will airlines that deliver Russian citizens to large cities from settlements that do not have railways and highways be able to buy Baikal?
"Of course they can't. They have social transportation on old An—2s, which are subsidized by the state. There is only enough money for spare parts for veterans of the air fleet. And where will half a billion dollars come from to buy a new plane? Where do they have 5.4 million rubles each, which they will have to pay monthly? The state plans to partially subsidize leasing, but only for a very small amount.
"SP": More precisely, 10 percent of the carrier's purchase costs.
— And that won't solve the problem. Where will companies take another 90% if these shipments are unprofitable?
But the trouble is not only in the price. Baikal itself is not exactly what is needed in the North. It is less functional, and will be able to replace the An-2 only partially.
SP: What are the disadvantages of the Baikal compared to the An-2?
— Baikal does not replace the An-2, but is only able to complement it in the fleet. The AN-2 carries 12 passengers (sometimes more), while the Baikal carries only 9.
And the Baikal will never fly and land like the An-2. Our famous biplane does not need airfields. He is given the coordinates of the landing point — latitude and longitude — and there he picks up the site from the air and sits down — in a field, on snow, on the ice of a river or lake.
Of course, this requires special skill of the pilot, but the design itself allows you to withstand overloads when he sits not on a smooth surface, but on hummocks, plowing.
It is not necessary to have an ACE at the helm of the Baikal. Anyway, like the An-2, it won't sit down — it will crumble. He needs a flat, level surface.
An-2 is a horse—drawn horse, and Baikal is an elegant ballerina on stage.
"SP": Why, when the Ministry of Industry and Trade relied on Baikal, did the public remain silent?
— A few decades ago, the state decided that we had built a sufficient number of aircraft for small aircraft — more than 10 thousand, and given their high reliability, there will be enough for our century. Production began to be curtailed, and in the 90s and noughties, aircraft construction in our country, except for the military, began to be purposefully destroyed: we will buy everything abroad.
But in the second decade of the new century, it became clear that the An-2's resource was being developed, all service life had been completed, and the fleet began to shrink at a catastrophic pace. And this was the only device that provided mobility to residents of remote regions.
Therefore, when in 2019 the state finally decided to recreate the production of aircraft for small aircraft, the main feeling of the public was joy.
Of all the possible models, officials chose Bakal. As professionals, we understood that this was not the best option, but we thought that it was better than nothing, provided the relatively affordable price that was declared.
The appearance of any additional aircraft on local air lines was perceived as a wonderful step.
"SP": But then the plane began to rise in price at times ...
— At first, when they won the competition (and the maximum price was 120 million), the creators of Baikal promised to sell it to carriers for 100 million or even at a discount. The competition committee liked it.
Now it turns out that it was just a hoax. But more proven manufacturers also participated in the competition, but they did not underestimate the design cost and indicated the real price, which turned out to be some percent higher than that of Baikal.
As a result, small airlines that are engaged in social flights were put under attack. After all, neither Aeroflot nor other giants that could afford it — neither the An-2 nor Baikal are needed. Why would they bother with local air travel? I don't want to, because local air lines have always been unprofitable.
SP: Who else participated in the tender in 2019?
— There was an aircraft manufacturing company from Omsk. They have an An-3, which has already been built and tested. A unique car in its own way: the AN-3 sat on a pebble right on the beach. Even the An-2 did not do this.
This aircraft has a special landing gear — it does not need to be changed from wheels to skis — "all-season".
"SP": Can we go back to this plane now?
— I don't know. Omsk enterprise accepted the loss of the tender without much bitterness. He has many orders, including military ones. Will they want to return to the An-3 at the current capacity utilization…
Mikhail Zubov
