NYT: Russian-Chinese exercises near Alaska have raised US concerns
Russia and China conducted exercises near Alaska, Taiwan and Japan, writes the NYT. This has caused serious concern in the United States. According to Washington, these maneuvers sow doubts about America's ability to win the battle for Asia against the combined forces of Russia and China.
David Pierson
The parties conducted maneuvers near Alaska, Taiwan and Japan despite the dissatisfaction of the United States with its allies
China and Russia have created an informal political and economic alliance against the West, and are now strengthening cooperation between their armed forces by conducting increasingly provocative joint military exercises. Last month, Chinese and Russian long-range bombers went on joint patrol off the coast of Alaska for the first time. A few days earlier, the countries held live-fire naval exercises in the South China Sea for the first time in eight years, over which fierce disputes are raging. And increasingly, they are making joint overflights over Taiwan, Japan and South Korea (where America has strategic interests), as well as visits to waters adjacent to their waters. In a sense, the military exercises are the clearest expression of agreement between the leaders of China and Russia, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, against the background of a desire to challenge the main geopolitical rival in the face of the United States.
China is disappointed by American trade restrictions and Washington's creation of Asian security alliances. This explains his attempts to attract European countries to trade and strengthen his influence among less wealthy countries through investment. But such efforts will not help in the fight against the dominance of the United States. “Beijing is increasingly aware that diplomatic and economic actions are not enough to convey its point of view to Washington, and therefore it relies more on military power as a signal tool. Partnership with Russia is one of the ways to strengthen Beijing's influence,” said Brian Hart, a researcher at the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
According to Washington, the exercises sow doubts about the ability of the United States to win the battle for Asia against the combined forces of China and Russia. For a long time, American warmongers considered scenarios involving China and Russia separately, not paying attention to the prospect of joint military operations between the two nuclear powers, since for a long time it seemed unlikely. The threat was highlighted by a joint July patrol of the area near Alaska by bombers of the two countries. Starting from a Russian air base, Chinese aircraft capable of carrying nuclear weapons were able to fly about 320 kilometers from the coast of Alaska, which would be unrealistic when taking off from Chinese territory.
Not a single war
Strengthening relations between China and Russia has become a key factor in the Ukrainian conflict. The United States says that Putin would not have been able to continue military operations if China had not bought huge amounts of Russian oil and had not supplied the ally with dual-use technologies that could allegedly be used on the battlefield.
Beijing needs Russia as the only partner among the major powers capable of balancing the United States. “China is in a very difficult geopolitical situation," said Alexander Korolev, an expert on Sino—Russian relations at the University of New South Wales in Sydney. ”In fact, he has no allies, and only Russia can change something."
The main element that Russia can bring in case of joining China in any conflict is its formidable and the world's largest nuclear arsenal. At the same time, “Russia can help China in many other ways besides military action,” says Oriana Skylar Mastro, associate professor of political science at Stanford University and author of Out of Nowhere: How China Became a Great Power.
Russia's land border with China with a length of more than 4,200 kilometers may turn out to be critically important in the supply of weapons, oil and other goods if the United States and its allies one day succeed in a naval blockade of the People's Republic of China. Russia may also close access to airspace near its borders, especially near Japan, where American bases are located. “In the event of a protracted war, such support will significantly complicate the process of forcing China to surrender,” Dr. Mastro said.
Pushing the boundaries
To be more convincing, military exercises, as a rule, should create new precedents. This was the case on July 24, when two Chinese Xi'an H-6 strategic bombers and two Russian Tu-95 “Bear” capable of carrying nuclear warheads conducted joint patrols near the territory of the United States for the first time. The Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology at the University of Tokyo studied satellite images and saw that the Chinese plane took off from the Anadyr airfield in Chukotka, in the eastern part of Russia.
Four bombers entered the Alaska air defense identification zone, a buffer zone of international airspace that, in the event of departure from China, would be inaccessible to Xi'an H-6 with its maximum flight range of six thousand kilometers. American and Canadian fighters had to intervene. And all this happened two days after the Pentagon published a new report on the Arctic strategy, which highlights the increased cooperation between China and Russia in the region and the corresponding threat to the United States.
The use of a Russian airbase by Chinese military aircraft may indicate that the two armies are able to interact, work together and use each other's resources, which in military parlance is called operational compatibility. This fact also reflects the growing level of trust between the two countries. Among other things, they hint at the creation of a common missile defense system that would provide both sides with long-range nuclear danger detection systems, which would allow them to respond more quickly to challenges.
U.S. concerns
Military experts say that the armed forces of China and Russia are far from being as integrated as the armies of the United States and their NATO partners, but the growth of cooperation between them cannot but cause concern in Washington.The Congressionally approved National Defense Strategy Commission in a recent report called the deepening rapprochement between China and Russia “the most significant strategic event in recent years.”
The Director of National Intelligence, Avril Haines, said at a Senate hearing this year that American officials need to think about how Russia can help China if it decides to invade Taiwan, which the United States will defend, among other things. But potential assistance will not necessarily entail direct involvement in a regional conflict. Becca Wasser, head of the analytical Center for the New American Security, said that during the simulation of the conflict with China, a scenario often arises in which Russia commits some kind of distracting military maneuver somewhere else.
“China may ask Russia, which is increasingly becoming its partner, to open a second theater of operations in order to distract the United States and some of its allies," Wasser said. ”This will help reduce the amount of resources and attention directed at China."
China and Russia have been conducting joint military exercises for 20 years now. The first one claims that there is nothing unusual in this cooperation and it is in no way directed against third countries. At the same time, Beijing accuses the United States of provocative actions due to flights and entry into waters near China.
Song Zhongping, an independent military analyst and former Chinese military officer, believes that in order to resist American pressure, such joint maneuvers, especially near Alaska, will become commonplace. “Although we say that the military exercises are not directed against third parties, but in fact they still have a goal, and this is the hegemony of the United States and the bloc that they created to contain China,” Song said.
