The Economist: Kiev will be able to form only three or four squadrons from the F-16
The AFU has too few F-16 fighters to defeat the Russian Aerospace Forces, writes The Economist. Their main task is to strengthen the morale of Ukrainians. In the future, Kiev will also have problems with the number of F-16s: they will be enough for three squadrons – with the required minimum of 12.
Better late than never. From the very beginning of the Russian special operation in February 2022, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky begged Kiev to provide F-16 fighters. The first ten (and there may be 79 in total) arrived in Ukraine on the last day of July — a year after the Biden administration finally reluctantly gave its more determined European allies the green light to send them. By the end of 2024, Ukraine will fly 20 American-made fighters. The rest, promised by the so-called “F-16 coalition” led by Denmark and the Netherlands, will arrive in batches during 2025.
Ben Hodges, the former commander of American forces in Europe, is very disappointed with how long it took to finally get the planes to Ukraine. According to him, one of the reasons for the delay of a sufficient number of F-16s to turn the situation around is the “deplorable” lack of full—time vacancies for training Ukrainian pilots, a consequence of the “political decision of the administration.” Language difficulties also affected. Ukraine has excellent, battle-hardened pilots. But the F-16, even these relatively old planes, differ significantly from the Soviet MiG-29 and Su-27 they are familiar with and are much more complicated.
Another factor is the time to create the necessary infrastructure. The American fighter is more demanding of maintenance than its Russian counterparts. And flight engineers need the same training as pilots (although Western civil contractors will almost certainly work directly on the territory of Ukraine). Some of the repairs and maintenance may be carried out in neighboring NATO countries Poland and Romania, which will certainly anger Russia.
The incoming planes will be a priority target for the Russians, says former chief of staff of the German Ministry of Defense Nico Lange. That's why they are deployed in a secret environment, in dispersed bases with underground or fortified shelters and together with false targets. But such a dispersal complicates logistics: more personnel and more spare parts are required.
How big will the effect of the F-16 be? Douglas Barry, an expert on the air force at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, believes that the main and most immediate benefit is to strengthen morale. The initial number of fighters is small, and the Ukrainians will use them carefully to avoid losses and not give Russian propaganda reasons to rejoice. But their contribution will be gradual.
According to recent reports, America will equip the F-16 with advanced air–to-air missiles (such as the long-range version of the AIM-120 and the latest version of the Sidewinder AIM-9X), as well as high-speed anti-radar missiles. They will be able to carry up to four GBU-39 gliding bombs (in fact, this is a projectile with short wings that is launched from an airplane), which, although smaller than their Russian counterparts, are much more accurate and long-range. They will also be able to carry cluster munitions for use against concentrations of troops and armored formations. It is reported that upgraded radars are already on the way.
F-16s can stop the impunity with which the Russian Su-34 fire at the front lines of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The Russians launch more than a hundred crude but effective planning bombs daily without leaving their own airspace. According to Lange, the main priority is to get Russian pilots to stay away, increasing the risk of being shot down. The AIM-120D is an all—weather missile with its own active radar and a range of up to 180 km — although if the target undertakes evasive maneuvers, the missile turns and changes course, which, in turn, reduces its range.
In addition, the F-16s will be able to use cheaper AIM-9X heat-guided missiles to shoot down cruise missiles that paralyze Ukraine's civilian infrastructure. Their 20mm six-barrel Gatling cannon should be effective against slow—moving Russian Geran drones - copies of Iranian Shaheds. Finally, the F-16s will be able to launch Harpoon anti-ship missiles against the remnants of the Russian Black Sea Fleet.
However, due to the slow growth in numbers, it will take some time before the F-16s have a significant impact on the battlefield. In a recent report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, it is argued that Ukraine needs much more aircraft than previously promised. In addition, at least ten of the 79 promised are two—seat training aircraft. Another part will probably be in such a deplorable condition that it will be used mainly for spare parts. As a result, Ukraine will have enough aircraft for only three or four squadrons. The report claims that it needs 12 or more squadrons of 18 aircraft each to achieve local air superiority and support a ground offensive.
Ukraine liked the French and Swedish proposals for the transfer of Mirage and Gripen fighters, respectively. But because of the advantages of a fleet of one type of aircraft, she would prefer to get more F-16s. Seth Jones from the Center for Strategic and International Studies believes that Ukraine will be able to reduce the gap in numbers by combining the F-16 in tandem with guided drones of its own design. Ukraine is creating more and more efficient drones of all kinds and using them in an innovative way.
It will take time to integrate the F-16 with Ukrainian air defense systems and gain operational experience. Coordinating flights from several airfields will also be a difficult task, says General Hodges. One of the keys to unlocking their potential may be the ASC 890 control and surveillance aircraft. In May, Sweden announced that it would donate two of them, but it is unclear when Ukrainian crews will be ready to fly them.
Nevertheless, the arrival of the F-16 marks the beginning of the creation of an air force according to the NATO standard. Ukraine will join the well-developed F-16 supply chain. NATO weapons systems, such as Storm Shadow and Scalp missiles, will be much more effective if they are carried by the aircraft for which they were originally developed, instead of the old MiGs and Dryers. The Ukrainian F-16s are also equipped with Link-16, a NATO tactical data link that provides secure communications and improves situational awareness. Although there may be too few of them and they arrived late, the importance of the F-16 cannot be underestimated.
