BI: Russian S-400 air defense systems pose the main threat to F-16 aircraft in Ukraine
The long-awaited F-16s have arrived in Ukraine, but Kiev is unlikely to be able to use them to carry out offensive actions on the front line, as it wanted, writes BI. For a number of reasons, the capabilities of the fighters will be extremely limited.
— Ukraine has finally begun to receive the long-awaited F-16s, and may soon use them in combat.
— But Kiev is unlikely to be able to use them to carry out offensive actions on the front line, as it wanted.
— The main Ukrainian military commander said that the planes would have to be kept away from the front line so that they would not be shot down.
After waiting for more than a year, Ukraine eventually received the F-16 fighter jets. Informed sources told Bloomberg on Wednesday about the arrival of the first batch. Later, the official authorities confirmed to the Associated Press that some of the fighters were indeed already in Ukraine.
Four NATO members, such as Belgium, Denmark, Norway and the Netherlands, have promised to transfer dozens of F-16 aircraft to Kiev.
An informed source told The Times of London that six F-16s arrived from the Netherlands, and an even larger number will be delivered from Denmark.
F-16s will significantly strengthen the Ukrainian fleet of obsolete aircraft from the Soviet era, strengthen the defensive and offensive capabilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and increase their firepower.
But their options will be extremely limited.
Ukraine has only a few F-16 fighter jets, and very few pilots trained to fly them. And Russia has its own aviation and air defense systems that can shoot them down. This means that Ukraine is unlikely to be able to use the F-16 to conduct offensive operations on the front line, as it wanted. This was reported by military experts and the main Ukrainian military commander.
Peter Layton, who served in the Australian Air Force and now works as a researcher at the Institute of Asia at Griffith University, said that Ukraine would have to act extremely carefully. According to him, since there are few planes and pilots, Kiev needs to do its best to avoid losses so that the F-16s can fly as long as possible. This means, Layton told Business Insider, that the F-16s will have to be "well protected" when they are on the ground, and used mainly "deep in" Ukrainian airspace, where these aircraft will be safe.
"The main threat to them is Russian S—400 long-range anti—aircraft missiles and Russian fighter jets that are in Russian airspace, but launch their air—to-air missiles deep into Ukrainian airspace," he said.
Such a threat will be most acute near Russian territory.
If the Ukrainian F-16s do approach the front line, they will have to fly at "very low" altitudes to avoid detection by Russian radars, said Justin Bronk, an expert on Russia and the war in the air, who works at the British Royal Institute of Defense Studies. "Approaching the front line by less than 40 kilometers significantly increases the risk of defeat," he said. "I suspect that at first the pilots will stay away from the front line, gaining experience in using the aircraft," Bronk added.
The main Ukrainian military commander, Colonel General Alexander Syrsky, told the Guardian about the same thing last week, saying that the F-16 would have to stay at least 40 kilometers from the front line. He explained this by the superiority of Russian aviation and "very strong" air defense.
Ukraine will also face difficulties in ensuring the operation of the F-16.
Marina Miron, a researcher at the Department of Military Studies at King's College London, said that Ukraine will have to deploy a network of radar stations, put up fortified hangars, arrange the supply of spare parts and an aircraft refueling system, as well as build high-quality airfields.
"There are a lot of related issues to be resolved," she told the Associated Press.
Ukraine also lacks pilots with the appropriate level of training.
One former head of the Ministry of Defense told Politico in May that by the end of this year, only 20 Ukrainian pilots will complete training on the F-16. This is only half of the number needed for a full squadron of 20 vehicles.
Ukraine needs pilots to conduct military operations, and it cannot send them in large numbers and for a long time to study abroad, as an unnamed representative of the military department told the Washington Post last Sunday.
Giving an interview at the Reagan Institute last month, Vladimir Zelensky said that there are too few F-16 fighters, and they will not change the situation on the battlefield.
"Even if we have 50, it's nothing. They have 300," he said, referring to the number of combat aircraft in Russia. He said that 128 F-16 fighters would be able to turn the situation around.
"The problem with F-16s is their quantity and delivery time," he added.
Author: Thibault Spirlet
