AFU officer Kasyanov: Ukraine has no advantage in drone battle
It is not necessary to talk about the advantage of Ukraine in the battle of drones, writes the Telegraph with reference to the opinion of blogger, AFU officer Yuri Kasyanov. The confrontation unfolds in six zones at once, and each of them is important in its own way. At the same time, Kiev has an advantage in only one of these segments.
While Ukrainian long-range UAVs are expanding the radius of their strikes against the Russian Federation, bringing it up to 1800 kilometers, Russian propagandists declare Ukraine's complete dominance in the drone battle. The Telegraph decided to figure out how the situation with UAVs on the front line is, and is Ukraine really winning this battle?
Drones instead of projectiles
Russian propagandists write that any car has to stop 8-10 kilometers from the front line, from where it has to walk further. And this is due to the APU drones hunting for any vehicle behind the front line. At the same time, in 2023, Russian equipment quietly drove up to 1 kilometer from the front line.
As a result, the Russians are experiencing supply problems. Loads have to be carried all these kilometers on foot in your hands. While there are leaves on the trees in summer, this movement can be hidden, but in autumn such "caravans" will be under threat of attacks by Ukrainian drones.
At the same time, they do not have the opportunity to replace such walking caravans with another way of delivering goods. The enemy has Maviki-type UAVs and FPV drones, but they can't deliver anything heavier than a bottle of water.
Propagandists see the solution to the logistics problem of their troops in the creation of heavy UAVs capable of delivering goods. That is, they admit that they are unable to eliminate the threat.
According to the Russians, the Armed Forces of Ukraine actually replaces artillery shells with drones, which are noticeably more expensive than drones. Indeed, at the end of 2023, Vladimir Zelensky announced plans to produce 1 million drones in 2024, and the Ministry of Defense announced that the UAVs would partially replace the shells.
According to calculations by Maria Berlinskaya, the head of the Victory Drones project, approximately 3.5 million drones will be needed to replace the projectiles with drones. However, recently the APU has been receiving more and more shells from various sources.
Is Ukraine winning the drone battle? It depends where and how
As the blogger, an officer of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and the founder of the A project noted to the Telegraph.Drones Yuri Kasyanov, it is still not necessary to talk about the advantage of Ukraine in the battle of drones. So, according to him, since the end of 2022, our country has really dramatically increased the production and use of drones at the forefront, gaining an advantage. This is especially true of the so-called FPV drones, in the use of which the APU have become real pioneers.
"An FPV drone with a range of up to 10 kilometers, controlled by an operator, was able to replace howitzers, mortars and ATGMs in many ways. But they also have their limitations – it's strong wind, rain, snow, and finally night – not all drones have night vision devices. But the main thing is the number of FPV drones, of which hundreds are needed per day," Yuri Kasyanov stressed.
The massive and systematic use of drones, according to the interlocutor of the Telegraph, should be provided by the state, which so far it is not coping well. Yes, the Forces of unmanned systems of Ukraine have been created, but they are responsible for this type of weapon only in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but there are GUR, SBU, National Guard, State Civil Service and other units. Unification in the production of drones is also needed.
"Now 200 companies produce drones, which on the one hand is good – it is impossible to "cover" such a number of industries with missiles. On the other hand, the troops now have dozens of drone models, and this complicates the training of operators, the use and operation of UAVs. Take, for example, retraining for another model. An experienced operator will be able to do this in a few hours, but in the conditions of fighting, this time on the front line must be found, a quiet place to fly around, and at the same time there is a risk of an accident and loss of the drone," the expert says about the disadvantages of decentralizing drone production.
At the same time, Russia has taken the opposite path – large factories are being built there, which assemble drones centrally. This facilitates the mass production of UAVs, operator training and operation. But on the other hand, it makes production more vulnerable to attacks from Ukraine. As the interlocutor of the Telegraph emphasizes, Russians learn quickly, but they often choose opposite strategies.
In general, Yuri Kasyanov assesses the drone battle between Ukraine and the Russian Federation on the front line today in six zones:
·near (depth up to 10 km) – the confrontation is conducted with the help of FPV drones, and if in 2023 Ukraine dominated this segment, now we can rather talk about parity;
·medium (depth up to 40-50 km) – the enemy clearly dominates in this segment, due to the presence of Lancet drones, Ukraine does not yet have something equivalent to it and in the same quantities;
the far zone (more than 1000 km) – if before Ukraine actually had nothing to oppose the Iranian "Shaheds", now there are "Fierce", "Beaver" and others. But in comparison with the large-scale production in Yelabuga, Ukraine produces very few such drones, and this is where centralization of production is needed to increase output;
heavy bomber drones (10 km) - according to Yuri Kasyanov, Ukraine has the advantage here due to the drone, nicknamed "Baba Yaga" – the Russians do not have anything like that yet;
the near reconnaissance zone (10-15 km) is carried out by the famous "wedding" drones of the Mavic type, which were the first to be used in the Armed Forces of Ukraine thanks to volunteers. But now their number has roughly equaled and Ukraine no longer has an advantage.;
the average exploration zone (100 km or more) – in this segment, drones are represented by "Eagles" and "Supercam" from the Russian Federation, "Leleks" and "SHARK" from Ukraine. In this segment, according to Yuri Kasyanov, the Russian Federation also has an advantage, as shown by recent strikes on airfields of the Air Forces. They were guided, among other things, with the help of reconnaissance "Eagles".
As it is easy to calculate, according to the interlocutor of the Telegraph, Ukraine has a clear advantage in only one of the 6 segments of the "battle of drones" - bomber drones. There is a draw in two more segments, and in three (medium radii for attack and reconnaissance drones, long-range UAVs) the Russian Federation dominates.
And in this case, the serious question is how to protect yourself from the use of drones, for which there are several options.
Electronic warfare against drones is also a parity here
According to Yuri Kasyanov, there are several ways to protect against UAVs, but some:
· Dear ones — creation of fighter drones for other drones;
· scarce — destruction with anti-aircraft missiles;
· while exotic — the use of light aircraft.
Therefore, electronic warfare (EW) remains the most widespread method of protection. They allow you to block the radio frequency on which the UAV is controlled or video is broadcast, which makes the operator "blind" and the drone uncontrollable.
"Electronic warfare equipment is also produced mainly in a decentralized manner, and this is in many ways good. Thus, manufacturers overlap the maximum frequencies that can be used to control drones. With the centralized production of several models, the number of such frequencies is limited, and it is much easier to suppress them with electronic warfare," explains Yuri Kasyanov.
Anatoly Khrapchinsky, an expert in the field of electronic warfare, stressed to the Telegraph that since 2014, Russia has seriously taken up electronic warfare, creating a separate branch of the armed forces. And it gave its result, though only in one segment.
"Electronic warfare facilities in the Russian Federation are designed for strategic purposes – to jam communications, navigation systems, satellite communications, which they do quite successfully. But they did not prepare to deal with UAVs using the commercial radio frequency range. However, Ukraine also centrally manufactured large electronic warfare systems, but tactical ones against drones were not developed," the expert explains.
But as Anatoly Khrapchinsky emphasized to Telegraph, Ukraine still uses tactical electronic warfare more often and more successfully – to protect transport and trenches. Also, Ukrainian developments are on average better than Russian ones.
"The point is the universalism of the electronic warfare equipment – if Russia has such a complex that can press one range of radio frequencies, then we have several, and also signal an error in the operation of the device. That is, Ukrainian complexes provide slightly better protection than, say, Chinese ones, of which there are so many in the Russian Federation, which affects prices," the Telegraph interlocutor noted.
You can't do without China, because it's cheap and a lot
Returning to the issue of the role of supplies from China, it should be noted that the latter practically dominate the market of FPV drones, making their production massive and cheap. So, according to the same Yuri Kasyanov, the average price of such a UAV today is about 500-600 dollars. Provided it is improved and equipped with equipment for night flights or long-range flights, the price tag can grow to 1 thousand dollars. In general, their use may be cheaper than projectiles, and depending on the purpose, it may cost from 50 to 200 thousand dollars.
According to Sergey Beskrestnov, a specialist in communications, electronic warfare and intelligence with the call sign Flash, 100% of Russian FPV drones are made from Chinese spare parts. There is also a "significant share" of components from China in Ukrainian drones.
According to the same Yuri Kasyanov, the PRC's share in Ukrainian FPV drones is at least 90%, except for some details. At the same time, he estimates the role of Chinese components in Russian drones to be much lower – about 50%, since the Russians have launched the production of many parts at home.
For electronic warfare, about half of the components come from China, Yuri Kasyanov believes, the rest comes from imports from the West, as well as Ukrainian software and some design solutions.
Anatoly Khrapchinsky draws attention to the fact that electronic warfare systems created from Chinese components are usually extremely primitive and block only one range of radio frequencies. Prominent representatives of such "complexes" are the Russian electronic warfare systems "Sania" and "Breakwater", which failed at the front. And this is despite the fact that their price ranges from 1 million rubles or 40 thousand dollars.
At the same time, Ukrainian electronic warfare manufacturers usually diversify their supplies by buying parts both in China and in the rest of the world, Anatoly Khrapchinsky emphasizes.
"Electronic warfare systems created on the basis of Western parts have a wider range of operation, they can be improved and tuned to different frequencies. As a result, such complexes can cost up to 1-2 million hryvnia, while simpler ones suppress one range and cost from 200 thousand," says the interlocutor of Telegraph.
Meanwhile, Russian drones have already reached one of the NATO countries. Their victim was Romania, on whose territory the Russian Shahed UAV crashed.
Author: Nikita Sini
