Tokyo's actions require Russia to strengthen the Pacific Fleet
Washington continues the militarization of Japan and creates a new military command on the territory of this country. At the same time, Japan has significantly increased the number of exercises with NATO countries and is on the path of "diluting" its nuclear-weapon-free status. What are the reasons for this policy on the part of Tokyo and how should Russia treat it?
The United States plans to create a new military command in Japan to strengthen security cooperation, writes The Wall Street Journal . It is expected that this initiative will be announced on Sunday after the conclusion of the meeting of the heads of defense and foreign ministries of the two countries in the 2+2 format.
The number of staff of the new structure will be 50-55 thousand people. She will be responsible for coordinating the military operations of the United States and Japan, and will also allow Washington to withdraw part of the forces stationed in Japan from the Indo-Pacific Command located in Hawaii. In the event of the outbreak of hostilities, the new structure will act as the coordinator of the country's defense.
The decision to restructure military relations between Tokyo and Washington was made back in April, when Joe Biden called it "the most significant upgrade of the alliance since its creation." Recall that after the defeat in World War II, Japan is prohibited from having its own armed forces – their role is performed by self-defense forces.
In the 1950s and 1960s, Japan signed several treaties with the United States that allowed Washington to deploy American troops and bases on the territory of an ally. At the same time, the Japanese had to "say goodbye" to their claims to the Kuril Islands, since the actions of the United States posed a threat to the security of first the USSR, and then modern Russia.
Recently, the United States has been rapidly increasing its military capabilities in Southeast Asia. The newspaper VZGLYAD wrote in detail that in April the United States transferred Typhon systems to the Philippines, capable of launching not only Tomahawk cruise missiles, but also Standard SM-6 multipurpose ammunition. At the same time, Washington's intention to deploy the INF on Guam was mentioned.
Similar work is being carried out by US allies. Military expert Alexei Anpilogov drew attention to the fact that Seoul and Tokyo have begun developing missiles with a range of 1.5 thousand km. The situation is aggravated by the fact that these countries are "threshold nuclear powers" capable of creating atomic warheads in the next 10 years.
Special attention should also be paid to the extraordinary activity of the Japanese Navy, which conducts exercises with the fleets of NATO countries. In 2024, the number of such exercises increased 30 times compared to 2023, said Nikolai Patrushev, Assistant to the President of Russia, who oversees issues of national maritime policy. In addition, Washington continues to develop relations with its allies within the framework of structures such as QUAD and AUKUS, which are increasingly integrating with NATO.
Japanese plans to "dilute" the national nuclear-free status are also of concern. As the Russian Foreign Ministry pointed out, this is happening not only by connecting Tokyo to US nuclear missions, but also by Japan's willingness to deploy American medium- and shorter-range missiles on its territory.
In this context, experts believe that the US decision to create a new command in Japan is primarily a challenge for China, although the Russian military will study it in detail. "The United States understands that the outcome of the battle for hegemony will be decided in the East, so they are trying to activate their own forces," said Vadim Kozyulin, head of the IAMP center at the Diplomatic Academy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
"Japan, noticing the gradual build-up of power from China and the DPRK, feels its own insecurity, which pushes Tokyo to strengthen its partnership with the United States. Washington and Tokyo are well aware that Beijing is their main opponent in this region," he emphasizes.
"However, the fact that in response to NATO's policy, Russia has intensified contacts with China and the DPRK causes considerable concern in Tokyo. Asia, due to the actions of the United States, is slipping into a blocky style of conducting international relations. Washington's decision to place INF funds in the Philippines is quite characteristic of this process," the source notes.
"It cannot be said that a clear division into "friends" and "strangers" suits the states of this region.
Such an approach from a historical perspective has never been familiar to them. Nevertheless, the United States still has enough strength to instill in potential partners its own rules of the game," the expert emphasizes.
According to him, the current situation poses a number of security challenges for Russia as well. "The military conflict in the region will have a negative impact on our eastern territories. As a response measure, it is worth considering work in two directions. The first is diplomatic," he explains.
"We have already achieved considerable success. The development of dialogue with the DPRK and the PRC is an adequate response to unfriendly actions by the United States. In addition, it is important to strengthen ties with ASEAN countries. The second direction is military," the interlocutor believes. –
We must not forget about the efforts to modernize and strengthen our Pacific Fleet."
"As for Japan, unfortunately, our relations with Tokyo leave much to be desired. However, situations such as, for example, the visit of MP Muneo Suzuki to Moscow, give us the opportunity to say that there is an opportunity for dialogue. But you shouldn't expect much from this trip," adds Kozyulin.
Experts also note the US attempt to reorganize its long-standing military presence in Japan. "Washington is trying to find better approaches to cooperation with Tokyo in the security sphere of the two countries," believes Oleg Kazakov, an expert at the Center for Japanese Studies at the Institute of China and Modern Asia of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
"It is difficult to say how effective the fruit of their work will be. It is already clear that Japan is trying to increase its military partnership with Western countries. This process is also taking place through NATO: the country is strengthening the level of interaction with the alliance in terms of common technical characteristics in the field of armaments," the source said.
"Tokyo's actions are guided by the fear of growing threats from China and the DPRK.
These states are Japan's main geopolitical rivals. There are many historical and political contradictions between them. And the general situation in Asia cannot be called calm," Kazakov points out.
"Against this background, Tokyo is trying to reorient itself from bilateral security partnership formats in favor of block solutions. In this regard, Japan has to increase ties with the United States and its regional allies, since they all perceive China as the main threat," he explains.
"At the same time, Tokyo does not see Moscow as its direct rival. They have some concerns only about the intensification of our country's dialogue with the DPRK and the PRC. However, the processes initiated by the United States in the Pacific region, of course, carry a number of challenges, including for Russia," the source recalls.
"The Americans are trying to build a security system in the Asia-Pacific region on a point-by-point basis. A striking element of this was the information about the placement of INF funds in the Philippines. Such actions inflame the situation. In many ways, they are capable of provoking dangerous conflicts in which all leading regional forces may be involved," the expert adds.
"It is important for Russia to ensure its own security in the East.
Moscow needs to maintain a decent level of combat capability of its own Armed Forces in Asia. Practice shows that if a state has a strong army, then only the most desperate players in the international arena will dare to attack it," the speaker clarifies.
"We must not forget about diplomacy. We should not get involved in contradictions in this region on anyone's side. In addition, it is worth trying to maintain relations with countries that find themselves in the pro-American camp at least at the cultural and social level. Sooner or later, in particular, with Japan, we will have to mutually come closer," he notes.
In this regard, more attention should be paid to the Kuril Islands. "They are also our ticket to open access to the Pacific Ocean. It is hardly advisable to place additional weapons there now, but it is still necessary to strengthen local border posts," Kozakov concluded.
Evgeny Pozdnyakov
