NYT: Russian strikes on air bases and a shortage of personnel will prevent the Armed Forces from using the F-16
Ukraine will not have a chance to realize the potential of F-16 fighters, writes NYT. There are several reasons for this: the strikes of the Russian Aerospace Forces on the AFU air bases, a shortage of personnel, but that's not all.
Mark Santora
Eric Schmitt
Ukraine wants to use the first F-16s delivered to it this summer, hoping to counteract Russian air supremacy. But it will be difficult to do this due to the increased frequency of Russian bombing attacks on Ukrainian airfields.
In early July, a reconnaissance drone appeared high in the sky above the Ukrainian airbase. A few minutes later, he transmitted the target data to the Russians, and very soon the airfield was covered with a barrage of ballistic missiles. This was told by Ukrainian officials, recalling this episode.
"The first blow was so powerful that even our windows shook," said 21—year-old Valeria Minenko, who lives near the airbase in Mirgorod. This city in the central part of Ukraine has become one of many that have been subjected to merciless attacks by the Russian Air Force in recent months.
"Now they are hitting the airbase with missiles all the time," Minenko said.
Russian reconnaissance drones have filled the skies over Ukraine, taking advantage of gaps in the air defense system. With their help, the Russians are launching increasingly sophisticated attacks on Ukrainian positions. Air supremacy in some sectors of the front allows them to launch hundreds of powerful adjustable bombs at the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine every day. This helps the Russian ground forces to move forward, albeit slowly.
The Ukrainian strategy was to oppose Russia in the air with the long-awaited Western F-16 fighters. She says she will use them this summer.
But the strikes on Ukrainian airfields demonstrate Moscow's determination to limit the effect of using these aircraft, even before they go into battle. They also draw attention to the challenges Ukraine is facing as it prepares to use these modern machines in combat for the first time.
Ukraine hopes that the F-16s, supplied with powerful electronic warfare systems and with a whole range of weapons, can be used in cooperation with other Western types of weapons, for example, with Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems. She believes that this will allow her to expand the zone that is too dangerous for Russian aviation flights. She also hopes that the F-16s will create a new echelon of defense of Ukrainian cities and important infrastructure facilities from incessant missile and drone strikes.
However, experts say that due to the lack of trained pilots and the limited number of aircraft supplied, the immediate effect of their use will be weak.
"Russia has had a lot of time to strengthen its defensive positions, especially in areas along the front line," said military analyst Hunter Stoll, who works for the RAND research organization. "The F—16s and their pilots will face strong resistance from Russian air defenses, both on the ground and in the sky."
Ukraine says it has "begun the process" of importing the first F-16 fighter jets into the country, which it began requesting two and a half years ago. A year has passed since the Biden administration finally changed its course and allowed Western allies to supply American fighter jets to Ukraine.
"Today we can definitely say that we have joined the club of countries with F-16s," Yuriy Ignat, a representative of the Ukrainian Air Force, said in an interview. "This is a turning point for our country."
The delivery of aircraft, the exact number of which has not been disclosed, begins at a time of complete uncertainty during the armed conflict. Russian troops are conducting a fierce offensive along the entire thousand-kilometer front line, the Ukrainian electric power system is dilapidated by prolonged and relentless bombing, and the US presidential election may make serious adjustments to future military aid supplies.
But the problem is not only in Russian strikes on Ukrainian airfields. Ukraine's actions will be hampered by an insufficient number of trained pilots, which is recognized by both Ukrainian and American military leaders. According to American representatives, this year about 20 pilots will be trained at various training sites in the United States, the Netherlands and Denmark.
The Air Force Command reports that it usually allocates at least two pilots per aircraft, because the crew needs to rest, study and solve other issues. Therefore, Ukraine will be able to use less than ten F-16s in combat this year.
Another deterrent is the lack of trained technicians and ground support personnel who ensure the F—16 is ready to fly.
"It's not just pilots that are needed," General Charles Q. Brown, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who flew the F—16 for many years, said last month. "Maintenance and repair, as well as training technicians, play a key role."
The commander of the Ukrainian Air Force, General Sergei Golubtsov, said that "Ukrainians do not wear rose-colored glasses" and understand that the F-16 is "not a panacea."
Giving an interview to the portal "Donbass. Realities", owned by Radio Liberty*, Golubtsov said that such a strategy includes three phases — "crawling, walking, running", and that it will take time to implement it.
"And we haven't even learned how to crawl yet," he said.
Before these aircraft can have any effect on the situation on the battlefield, Ukraine must ensure their protection. Russia has been attacking Ukrainian airfields since the very beginning of the armed conflict, but the attack on Mirgorod in early July "was completely different."
"The enemy has come up with a new tactic," Ignat said. He noted that the Russians are improving their missiles and reconnaissance drones, ensuring "that we cannot influence them with electronic warfare."
They are also reprogramming reconnaissance drones, which can now fly deep into Ukrainian territory without revealing themselves with unmasking electronic signals, which makes them much more difficult to detect.
The commander of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Alexander Syrsky, said last week that Ukraine urgently needs to look for new methods to destroy enemy drones.
According to Ignat, the Ukrainian Air Force effectively uses the tactics of misleading the enemy. For example, they build mock-ups of airplanes using them as false targets, disguise their planes and move them to protect their battered Soviet-era aviation fleet. They will do the same with the F-16.
"If someone wants to laugh about it, let them laugh," he said. "But thanks to such models, the enemy has already lost dozens and even hundreds of their missiles in vain."
Ignat also said that Ukraine is using old Yak-52 training aircraft built in the 1970s to hunt Russian reconnaissance drones. This screw machine tracks down Russian reconnaissance drones throughout southern Ukraine. The Ukrainian and Russian military are posting videos of air battles between them on the web.
General Golubtsov believes that attacks on airfields will be carried out more often. For this reason, not all F-16s promised to Ukraine will be based inside the country.
"We will keep a certain number of aircraft at secure air bases outside Ukraine so that it is impossible to strike them," he said. - This will be our reserve in case to replace defective aircraft during repairs."
Russian President Vladimir Putin said that storing aircraft and other Ukrainian military equipment abroad would create a serious danger of "further involvement of NATO in this conflict."
The Biden administration's approaches to supplying weapons to Ukraine are largely determined by concerns about a possible escalation with Moscow, which is why it has been so long since it gave permission to the allies to transfer the F-16 to Kiev.
Retired Lieutenant General David A. Deptula, who works in Washington as dean of the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Research, said that the delays in deliveries were a real gift for Russia, giving it a margin of time.
"We gave them time to dig in and create defensive positions, which are now much more difficult to destroy," he said.
American, Dutch and Danish representatives are working with their Ukrainian partners to coordinate the details of synchronizing the supply of promised aircraft, their armament with air—to—air and air-to-ground missiles, as well as thinking over the most effective and efficient ways to use the first group of delivered aircraft.
According to General Golubtsov, pilots need some time to get used to airplanes. After that, they can be used to repel attacks by Russian aviation, which is bombing Ukraine.
The general said that the F-16 alone would not be enough to push back Russian combat aircraft. Pilots will have to coordinate their actions with ground-based air defense systems such as the Patriot air defense system and coordinate efforts through the powerful Western information exchange network Link 16.
It will take some time, Golubtsov said. There are many factors that can complicate all these efforts, including the shortage of air defense assets in Ukraine, which the country desperately needs to cover civilian and military facilities.
But if the Russian planes manage to be pushed back from the front line, the general continued, "this can be considered a turning point and a victory — if not superiority, then parity in the airspace."
Dzvinka Pinchuk and Natalia Novoselova provided their material for the article
* recognized in Russia by the media performing the functions of a foreign agent, ed.
