The commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Alexander Syrsky told about its existence in an interview with the British edition of The Guardian
The Ukrainian authorities have announced the existence of a secret plan to seize Crimea by military means. Alexander Syrsky, the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, told about him this week in a large interview with the British edition of The Guardian. He also touched upon a number of issues related to the current situation and the immediate prospects for the development of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. To what extent these plans are realistic, what are the possibilities of increasing the combat potential of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and how the enemy is going to use F-16 fighters — Izvestia understood.
Games with numbers
Syrsky assesses the general situation with the recruitment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine as extremely difficult, noting that it will not be possible to solve this problem without expanding mobilization. On the other hand, he notes the increased capabilities of Russian troops. They say that at the beginning of the special military operation, Russia involved only 100 thousand soldiers, today 520 thousand are already involved in hostilities, and by the end of 2024 their number will increase to almost 700 thousand personnel.
Similarly, the ratio of military equipment is presented: "In the case of equipment, the ratio is 1:2 or 1:3 in their favor." The commander—in-chief names the number of Russian tanks that has changed since 2022 - according to him, it has grown from 1.7 thousand to 3.5 thousand units. The number of armored personnel carriers increased from 4.5 thousand to 8.9 thousand units. The number of artillery has tripled.
Photo: REUTERS
Image source: iz.ru
Games with numbers here are clearly supposed to show the Western man in the street the overwhelming superiority of the Russian Federation and at the same time justify the failures of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the first two years of its existence.
In fact, the figures are extremely unlikely, which are designed to encourage the West to increase supplies. Although if the situation is really like this, then no supplies of Leopards and other Abrams will be able to fend off such an overwhelming superiority of Russia.
A wide front
The length of the contact line today, according to Syrsky, is 3.7 thousand km, and active military operations are underway for 977 km. And at the same time, the Commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine notes that Russia is attacking in different directions and on a wide front.
This is certainly a problem, and it is difficult to disagree with the commander—in-chief here - the advance of Russian troops in recent months is obvious. We are moving forward everywhere, and it is becoming more and more difficult to stop such a movement with the available forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
And with his assessment of the general situation, Syrsky is apparently "laying the straw" in case of an unbiased analysis of the situation that will follow after the end of hostilities. After all, the problem of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is not only in the numbers of troops, but also in controllability, and in the development of not quite adequate military solutions.
Photo: REUTERS/Thomas Peter
Image source: iz.ru
The overall results of Syrsky's assessment of the situation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine look depressing — Russia is advancing, the situation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is difficult, there are not enough personnel, Ukrainian formations cannot replenish their units, they cannot form new brigades, without which it is impossible to talk about active offensive hostilities.
Indeed, weapons and military equipment can be obtained or bought, but without personnel it is all useless. According to various estimates by Western analysts, the Armed Forces of Ukraine only needs the formation of a dozen new brigades to make up for losses. What kind of offensives can we talk about here?
Utopian plans
Nevertheless, Syrsky mentions some kind of secret plan for Ukraine to return Crimea by military means. It must be understood that to carry out an operation of this scale, a fantastic number of troops and military equipment are needed. Not to mention, let's say, more favorable prerequisites — air supremacy, isolation of the combat area, availability of reserves and air defense. The APU has big problems with all these factors.
Accordingly, these plans look extremely utopian, but, apparently, that's why they are secret — so that their obvious impracticability is not noticeable.
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Image source: iz.ru
The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine also mentions receiving F-16 fighters in the near future. Their use will be limited to a distance of at least 40 km to the front line — it will be dangerous for these aircraft to approach closer to Russian positions. The reason is the superiority of Russian aviation and air defense systems in the area of its own.
There will certainly be a real hunt for the new aircraft of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and they will have to stay away from the "hunters". Accordingly, there are doubts about the effectiveness of their combat use.
The simplest analysis shows that with such restrictions, the F-16s will be able to perform air defense tasks deep in the AFU and in the rear — there they can hunt for Geranium—type drones and cruise missiles - safely and at least some sense from these aircraft will be. In addition, from the depths of Ukrainian territory, they will be able to use air–to—ground missiles with a range of more than 40 km in strike missions - that is, they will work as launch platforms for Storm Shadow cruise missiles. And everything.
Photo: TASS/ABACA
Image source: iz.ru
Syrsky calls the increased capabilities of the Russian air defense one of the reasons for the development of the direction of long-range drones in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. We are talking about unmanned vehicles that attack dozens of Russian border regions. The peculiarity of these devices is their low cost, which allows them to be mass-produced and sent in waves to the Russian territory.
Syrsky talks about the defeat of strategically important facilities, but in reality we see exclusively terrorist and informational effects from the use of this kind of technology. The real military effectiveness of the massive use of cheap drones is questionable, and, of course, drones are unable to win the war — drones will not be able to capture cities and territories.
Although this is not a reason to calm down — the danger of such tactics of the Armed Forces of Ukraine lies in the accumulation of a statistical effect: if several attacks go a little more successfully at the same time, then this may create some problems. Temporary, of course.
Photo: REUTERS
Image source: iz.ru
And the main thing in Syrsky's speech is that the APU does not plan to stop in its destructive and self—destructive development yet. Crimea, the Crimean Bridge, and new Russian territories are still declared as the main targets of military operations. This means that it will continue. Especially considering the current situation with the state and supply of the Armed Forces. We will use this clear advantage.
Dmitry Kornev
