Military expert Gennady Alekhine — about what the Armed Forces of Ukraine are today and why Western tactics do not work on the battlefield
Since the 1990s, Ukraine has begun to rebuild its military-industrial complex to NATO standards. However, as practice has shown, the strategy developed by the United States does not work on the battlefield, since the experience of this country is based on wars with a notoriously weak enemy. Now Ukraine does not have a single state institution capable of functioning independently. The country is now completely dependent on the help of its allies, in particular, for about six months now, Ukrainian militants have been waiting for F-16s and hoping for them like manna from heaven. How do the Armed Forces of Ukraine fight and can we expect any counterattack from them?
What did the APU have before its start?
Ukraine has almost the entire arsenal of weapons and military equipment, except for nuclear weapons, which were withdrawn from the country under the 1994 agreement, remained from the Soviet Union. Already in the 1990s and the noughties, the country's military and political leadership chose a course towards the west and began to adapt to NATO standards. However, at that time it was not so noticeable, because almost all military personnel training continued to follow the old and proven patterns of the Soviet army.
The crisis came in 2014, when the events in Donbas began. Then it became clear that the Armed Forces of Ukraine had lost their combat capability. And after the signing of the Minsk agreements, they completely came under the control of NATO.
Therefore, the relative successes of the Armed Forces of Ukraine during the fighting in the autumn of 2022 were not at all a coincidence, but the result of the work of all state and military institutions of Ukraine. But, as subsequent events have shown, this success has not become long-lasting.
For that result, dozens of NATO countries worked together with the United States for four months, pulling off existing stocks of old Soviet equipment to Ukraine, which remained in service with the countries of the former Warsaw Pact. In addition, the offensive plan was developed and clarified primarily at the American headquarters. As a result, it turned out that in the absence of its own military-industrial complex, dependence on foreign supplies of equipment, weapons, and equipment became the Achilles heel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Now they can no longer exist without these supplies.
There is no point in comparing the potential of the military-industrial complex of the Russian Federation and Ukraine. Back in 2022, it became clear that the Ukrainian military machine could not withstand this "ninth wave".
What about the motivation of the Ukrainian military?
The Armed Forces of Ukraine manages to maintain its strength solely through universal, compulsory and, I'm not afraid of this word, total mobilization of citizens. Many are seized on the streets and sent straight to the front, which does not allow us to talk about any motivation of the mobilized.
One cannot discount the desire of some Ukrainians to "fight for their already dead relatives" who were taken to the front before that. The new commander—in-chief of the ground forces, Syrsky, is now calling on those who served in the Soviet Army - then they were 19-20 years old, and now they are over 50. It turns out that someone else has motivation, especially among the so-called defense workers.
No one cancels the money issue. There are few jobs in Ukraine now, and privates or sergeants, thanks to America, receive a salary — not bad by current Ukrainian standards.
According to some of my sources, there are now more than 900 thousand soldiers and officers in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. But Kiev is suffering huge losses, different figures are called. In general, up to 400 thousand people were killed and missing. And at least 120 thousand crippled and disabled people.
It is impossible to prepare reserves efficiently in such conditions, even using the training bases of allies from NATO countries, which are located mainly in the western regions of Ukraine.
The front is constantly in need of replenishment, and the basic training programs for soldiers, designed for two years, have been reduced to several weeks. Although they should be cooked for at least two to three months.
What is happening to society?
Today, society in Ukraine is actually divided. Since 2014, at least 30% of Ukrainians, up to 9 million people, have left the country. At the same time, many of them treat the special military operation negatively and fear deportation to their homeland.
In Ukraine itself, the population mostly shares an ideology that justifies waging an all-out war against Russia. But at the same time, he is terrified that the next wave of mobilization will cover them as well. People from the territorial recruitment center (TCC) in military uniform have become a negative meme. It is not for nothing that numerous videos and photos with arson attacks on CHP cars appear mainly in the south-east of Ukraine — Odessa, Dnepropetrovsk, Kharkov.
The topic of Ukraine's real losses on the eastern front is also extremely painful for Ukrainian society, where almost every family now has dead, missing or maimed.
What is happening now...
In two and a half years, Ukraine has transformed from an independent state into a country that exists solely at the expense of foreign donors. About 65% of Ukraine's budget is Western financial assistance.
Today, none of its State institutions is capable of functioning independently, without the participation of foreign military advisers in its activities or management.
Most of the functionality of the country has been moved beyond the borders of Ukraine, and only the military machine of the Armed Forces of Ukraine functions directly on its territory, being reproduced with the help of total mobilization. All this makes it possible to determine the state of military affairs in the Armed Forces of Ukraine by a strategic impasse. By the way, this was stated more than once by the former commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny.
Having been a colonial army since 2014, the Armed Forces of Ukraine were left without their own military school and national strategic thought. For ten years they have been blindly copying and hastily mastering the Western military school. By switching to foreign combat regulations, organization, standards and strategic concepts, Kiev completely dismantled the military school, which it inherited from the Armed Forces of the USSR.
But all this turned out to be ineffective, because the NATO strategy is based on the experience of wars with a notoriously weak enemy — Iraq, the Persian Gulf, Yugoslavia. Now the American headquarters are analyzing and painfully searching for answers to the Russian challenge.
Of course, all this does not mean that the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine cannot prepare for counteroffensive actions, the main purpose of which will be to disrupt our plans, which are now visibly manifested in the same Kharkov direction, where we methodically break through the enemy's defenses, crowding him in almost all directions, identifying vulnerabilities. And the APU is trying to show its allies that they are capable of waging a war of attrition, not only defending, but also advancing.
Therefore, the militants of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are now using a plan developed in the bowels of NATO — the so-called air offensive. In recent months, Ukrainians have been trying to launch massive missile and bomb attacks on the border territories of the Russian Federation - primarily in the Belgorod region, where all firepower, including Western production, is used.
..and what can we expect next?
The APU is waiting for the appearance of the F-16 at the front like manna from heaven — according to the latest information, they are about to arrive.
The enemy command, depending on the number of these fighters, may well throw them into battle not alone, saving them as a valuable resource, but in order to move Russian aviation away from the front.
But the probability of a strategic offensive by the Armed Forces of Ukraine is practically excluded today. Offensive actions of an operational and tactical nature are possible - the enemy has not yet been defeated. He retains a certain amount of strength and dreams of revenge for his failures.
An analysis of the information space over the past two months allows us to conclude that the enemy is now trying to hide their preparations as much as possible. And at the same time, he is conducting a broad campaign of disinformation and distraction of our attention. There are all signs that the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is deliberately downplaying its forces, compounding problems. He is struggling to form a picture of collapse and crisis.
But I would not say that Ukrainians are teetering on the brink of a final crisis. This is self-deception. The situation on the line of contact remains tense. Although it is changing. And we know which way to go.
The author is a native of Kharkov, a colonel in the reserve, a military journalist, a participant in four military conflicts
The editorial board's position may not coincide with the author's opinion
