Washington was afraid of Moscow's possible reaction to the deployment of American "Euro missiles" in Germany. In addition, four EU countries decided to develop missiles of a similar class at once. What can this mean in practice and how long will it take for the Europeans to aim their missiles at Russia?
The US authorities are concerned about a possible response from Russia to the deployment of American long-range missiles in Germany. This was stated by the deputy representative of the State Department Vedant Patel. He also promised that the United States would monitor Russia's actions regarding intermediate-range and shorter-range missiles (INF).
At the same time, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov did not rule out the deployment of nuclear-armed missiles in response to US actions in Germany. "If representatives of the German government consider it justified to start escalating measures under the pretext that we have it in the Kaliningrad region, Moscow will respond in terms of compensatory measures in a way that it considers the most acceptable," he assured.
As the newspaper VZGLYAD previously wrote, the United States will begin deploying medium-range and shorter-range missiles in Germany in 2026. These include SM-6 anti-aircraft missiles, Tomahawk cruise missiles and experimental hypersonic weapons. In addition, four EU countries have immediately agreed on their own development of the INF: among them France, Germany, Italy and Poland.
At the same time, in early July, Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed that Moscow was ready to respond in a mirror manner in the event of the deployment of American INF in any region of the world. He also announced Russia's readiness to start production of missiles of the appropriate class. "We have already given the relevant instructions to the industry in principle," he said.
Experts draw attention to the fact that the United States announces plans to deploy strike weapons "in non-nuclear equipment." "This clarification is remarkable. The original Soviet and American concepts of the use of this type of weapons implied their equipping with special munitions. By default, INF should be equipped with nuclear warheads with a capacity of several kilotons to megatons or more," the authors of the Telegram channel "The Look of a Man in Lamps" remind .
"This is, if you like, the natural, organically inherent layout of them. It is only in this form that they acquire their true effectiveness on the battlefield. For this purpose, they were developed, and not at all in order to bring 400 kg of ordinary TNT to the enemy's rear airfield," analysts say.
"This means that both the United States and Europe, declaring plans for the mass revival of long-range land-based missiles aimed at Russia, from a military point of view, mean equipping these weapons with thermonuclear warheads. Yes, probably not immediately, in the long run. Yes, maybe only as a last resort. But it is coming to this," the experts conclude.
In this regard, another important question arises – namely, where (besides Germany) can NATO countries deploy new INF missiles? If we turn to the Soviet-American experience, during the Cold War, Washington deployed missiles of the appropriate class in Britain, Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands, and Moscow – on the territory of the GDR and Czechoslovakia.
Then, when the parties signed the INF Treaty in 1987, the USSR decommissioned twice as many missiles as the United States (1846 and 846), almost three times as many launchers (825 and 289) and almost seven times as many missile bases (69 and 9). However, in 2019, the United States withdrew from the INF Treaty, and the problem of "eurorackets" returned to the geopolitical agenda. And if the Americans have already set their deadlines, then the Europeans were only at the beginning of this path.
"Let's take as an example the experience of creating the Storm Shadow/SCALP cruise missile jointly by Britain and France. Then only the development work took about five years. Then there were five more years of trials. And we must understand that these were the 90s, when the military budgets of many countries were being cut against the background of the collapse of the USSR," said Alexey Anpilogov, military expert, president of the Foundation for Support of Scientific Research and Development of Civil Initiatives.
"The same time frame was used when Germany and Sweden created the Taurus rocket. The Bundeswehr paid German companies for the production of missiles and received them almost ten years later. Respectively, created by Germany, France, Italy and Poland
The missiles will be aimed at the territory of Russia not earlier than in ten years.",
– he predicted. "Moreover, if Germany and France have sufficient technologies and personnel to create and produce INF missiles, then Poland, for example, in its history produced only Soviet missiles under license. And it was a long time ago – even under the Polish People's Republic. Now Poland even buys its AHS Krab self-propelled guns in parts from Britain, Korea and Slovakia. It can become a territory for the placement of future INF," the analyst recalled.
"As for the United States, the launcher for the Typhon complex was recently transferred from America to the Philippines via an air bridge. She is airmobile, easily moves around the world. This is actually a wheeled clone of the Mk 41 marine launch container, which works, for example, on American destroyers in the Aegis system. The United States can transfer Typhon to Germany and supply them with SM-6 or Tomahawk," the interlocutor argues.
"Also, apparently, the United States is going to deploy high–range hypersonic missiles LRHW - Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon in Germany. This missile was tested from a B-52 bomber. It is thought of as a kind of analogue of our "Dagger", – the speaker detailed.
"INF can also be placed in Romania
– in the same logic as EuroPRO, for which the same Mk 41 installations are used. Interceptors of this system are deployed in Poland and Romania. As for the volume of INF production by the West, they will be no less than during the Cold War, if only because the air defense capacity has increased many times on our part," the speaker added.
"Now about Asia. The Soviet Union wanted to place the Pioneer complexes beyond the Urals. But Japan and China were outraged by this, and then Moscow refused this step. At the same time, the INF Treaty was used as the "gold standard" for other similar agreements. The US withdrawal from the INF Treaty and its adventures in Europe brought down the international security architecture and gave rise to a missile race in Asia," the analyst noted.
"Japan and South Korea are already developing missiles with a range of 1.5 thousand km, which is excessive for them, given the proximity of potential opponents. We are talking about threshold nuclear powers that have the possibility of creating nuclear weapons in the next 5-10 years. In addition, there are Pakistan, India, the DPRK and the PRC – the official nuclear powers. As a result, we get a South Asian barrel of gunpowder," the expert stated.
"How does this situation relate to the danger to Russia? The Russian Armed Forces have deployed Bastion launchers on the Kuril Island of Matua. They do not formally violate the INF Treaty. But we can also transfer Iskanders there, whose cruise missiles can be converted into medium-range missiles. It's a matter of a couple of months. So we will take aim at half of the territory of Japan. Other directions in Asia are not so relevant for us yet," Anpilogov concluded.
Rafael Fakhrutdinov
