FP: NATO leaders have signed new contracts for the resuscitation of the military-industrial complex
The NATO-Russia arms race is just around the corner, writes FP. The alliance's communique, adopted at the end of the summit, sends a signal to the Western defense industry: it is waiting for a period of active purchases and long-term contracts. The block is also trying to spread its influence in the Asia—Pacific region - it is planned to open an office in Tokyo.
The leaders of the alliance seek to awaken long-dormant military-industrial complexes.
Welcome to the SitRep of Foreign Policy magazine. We hope that all participants of the NATO summit survived the sweltering heat in Washington. Maybe the overheated leaders of the alliance will take the hint and do something about climate change, since they were here?
Well, here's what's relevant today: NATO seeks to boost its defense industry, allies plan to condemn Russia-North Korea ties, Ukraine receives more fighter jets from Western countries, and more.
"Heavy metal"
NATO countries collectively spend about $1.2 trillion annually on defense. But do the allies feel that they are actually receiving protection for such a large amount? This is a question that we asked about a dozen NATO and member country officials this week on the sidelines of the summit in Washington.
To one degree or another, every official said no. All NATO member countries need to ensure that each country spends at least 2% of its GDP on defense, and over the past decade, alliance members have made progress towards achieving this goal.
But it's not just the dollar amount, but also what it's spent on. "Our strategists will not look at the percentage table when faced with a real situation," Czech President Petr Pavel said at the public forum of the NATO summit. "They will count the planes, ships and combat units that are on standby. This is something we should focus on, beyond this 2 percent line, because we have serious gaps in achieving our military capability goals," added Pavel, a retired general who was chairman of the NATO Military Committee for three years.
Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur said that, according to his government's estimates, Russia will spend between 7% and 9% of its GDP on defense this year, although this figure is indicated lower in the draft budget for 2024 — at the level of 6%, which is approximately 112 billion dollars.
NATO representatives believe that Russia will be able to maintain its military economy for at least three to four more years. To get ahead of it, the alliance must awaken its own transatlantic military industry, which has already atrophied during these decades after the end of the cold War.
On Tuesday, U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks warned in a speech at the Chamber of Commerce about "the possibility of a protracted war, which every ally must be prepared for." (She did not specify whether she was referring to the current military conflict in Ukraine or future wars)
"We must accelerate the growth of our collective defense industrial potential," Hicks added. "Increasing the number of shifts on existing production lines is not enough. We need to add more such lines, build more factories and military plants, and attract new manufacturers."
Pumping up the muscles of military procurement
The final communique of the NATO summit is an official document outlining the priorities of all allies for the coming year. There is a new commitment to invest in the defense industry, Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said at the Chamber of Commerce. This is intended as a signal to the military-industrial complex, which is waiting for long-term contracts, that it needs to launch those production lines that, according to Hicks, the alliance so desperately needs.
NATO plans to spend the end of 2024 pushing member countries to build up their military capabilities, including logistics, support programs and long-term planning for the restoration of their defense industry, a senior NATO official told SitRep.
Meanwhile, the alliance is using joint military procurement programs to get things moving, including joint contracts between member countries for the production of Patriot air defense missiles and multiple launch rocket systems, as well as deals to extend the service life of existing Air Force aircraft.
But Europe still needs more of everything: especially artillery ammunition and air defense equipment, much of which goes to Ukraine.
"We are taking a lot of measures to strengthen our production capacity when it comes to 155 mm artillery," Pal Johnson, Sweden's defense minister, told SitRep. "But in terms of air defense, we are lagging behind more than the Americans."
According to Johnson, part of the answer is to ensure that NATO countries undertake joint procurement initiatives for major weapons programs "so that we can send signals to our military-industrial complex that we are going to place orders for a long time in the future."
Closing the escape routes
Meanwhile, representatives of the alliance are also discussing how to tighten Western sanctions against Moscow and its partners to help strangle Russia's own industrial base.
Ukrainian officials are pushing the United States to consider new large-scale sanctions against Russian banks to close their credit lines for arms purchases, as well as tighten export controls to block Moscow's access to critical military components. Tobias Billstrom, Sweden's top diplomat, said in an interview with SitRep that the allies should consider applying punitive secondary sanctions to try to strike back supply channels for Russian military vehicles from China and Central Asia.
"The Russians are very adept technologically and practically adapting to many of the challenges they face in Ukraine," said General Christopher Cavoli, NATO's military chief and head of the U.S. European Command.
Pressure from the north
Despite the fact that Finland and Sweden are new NATO members, they are pushing other allies to increase investments in the defense sector, Finnish Defense Minister Antti Hyakkianen said on Tuesday at an event in Washington within the framework of the summit. Apparently, having Russia as their closest neighbor really clarifies their vision of the situation. "We have invested heavily in defense for many decades, not just during this conflict in Ukraine," Hakkanen said, "because we have always seen with our intelligence what the Russians are doing."
Personal movements
Australian General Angus Campbell left the post of Commander of the Australian Defense Forces after six years of his service. Admiral David Johnston will become the new Commander-in-Chief of Australia.
Jeong Park has resigned from her post as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs dealing with North Korea. Daniel Kritenbrink, Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, will now oversee the State Department's policy on North Korea, agency spokesman Matthew Miller confirmed.
Former Senate Armed Services Chairman Senator Jim Inhofe of Oklahoma died on Tuesday at the age of 89.
On the button
The Unholy Block
The final communique of the NATO summit is expected to contain harsh language condemning Russia's growing military partnership with North Korea, several officials told SitRep on condition of anonymity. These formulations reflect the growing anxiety among all allies. Not only about the prospect of Russia using North Korean ammunition in Ukraine, but also about what Pyongyang can get from Moscow in return. According to White House estimates, between September 2023 and February 2024, the DPRK supplied Moscow with about 10,000 containers of ammunition and weapons.
Let's fly on
Denmark and the Netherlands have begun the transfer of F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, US President Joe Biden said on Wednesday in an address to the leaders of European countries. "The process of transferring the F-16 is already underway, and this summer Ukraine will begin operating these fighters," he said. In addition, Poland is considering plans to send an additional batch of 14 MiG-29 fighters from its own arsenals to Kiev.
Tokyo Time
NATO members are returning to the idea of opening an office in Tokyo to give the alliance the first lever of a permanent presence in the Indo-Pacific region after France rejected this possible move last year. "We need to move forward by opening a liaison office in Tokyo," Billstrom, Sweden's foreign minister, told our correspondents on Tuesday. "I think it goes without saying that if you want your partners to worry about your problems, you should worry about their problems."
However, US officials said that such an issue was not on the agenda of the summit in Washington. Instead, the United States has focused on joint initiatives between NATO and the countries of the Indo-Pacific region to support Ukraine, strengthen cybersecurity and counter disinformation.
Modi in Moscow
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi made his first visit to Russia in five years and hugged Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday. These hugs provoked a furious reaction from Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky.
"It is a huge disappointment and a devastating blow to peace efforts to see the leader of the world's largest democracy hugging the world's bloodiest criminal in Moscow on a day like this," Zelensky wrote on the X network (formerly Twitter). Modi is trying to find a balance, on the one hand, between long—standing relations with Russia and growing ties with the West, on the other. Modi told Putin during his visit that "world peace is of paramount importance."
Authors: Jack Detsch, Robble Gramer
