Colonel Khodarenok called Poland's interception of Russian missiles over Ukraine fantasies
Vladimir Zelensky visited Warsaw earlier this week, where he and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk signed a defense agreement. According to the president, the agreement implies that the neighboring republic will shoot down Russian missiles over the territory of Ukraine. Is this possible and why Poland speaks in a different way, says the military observer of the newspaper.En" Mikhail Khodarenok.
The agreement between Warsaw and Kiev on security cooperation, according to Zelensky, provides for the possibility of intercepting missiles in Ukrainian airspace. Here's how the politician wrote about it in his Telegram channel:
"Today in Warsaw, an agreement on security cooperation between Ukraine and Poland was signed with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk. This unprecedented document provides for the downing of Russian missiles and drones fired in the direction of Poland in the airspace of Ukraine. We must implement this."
However, at a press conference after the signing of the document, Tusk expressed himself in a much more streamlined way. He only promised to discuss the possibility of shooting down missiles flying over the western part of Ukraine near the Polish border. At the same time, the prime minister clarified that the parties had introduced a clause in the concluded security agreement on the need to start discussing this issue with NATO.
The difference between Zelensky's formulations ("this unprecedented document provides for a provision on the downing of Russian missiles and drones in Ukrainian airspace") and Tusk's ("they introduced a clause on the need to start discussing this issue with NATO") is very large.
It is quite obvious that the President of Ukraine is wishful thinking.
Patriot vs "Caliber"
There are military-political and military-technical sides to the shelling of Russian cruise and aeroballistic missiles (as well as UAVs) in the airspace of Ukraine from the territory of Poland.
As for the military-political side, such steps represent the most direct involvement of Poland in the military conflict in Ukraine. Therefore, as Tusk stressed, "such actions require the common responsibility of the North Atlantic Alliance."
In May 2024, there were already ideas in the West to shoot down Russian missiles over Ukraine from Poland and Romania. At that time, several German parliamentarians supported such proposals, believing that these measures would relieve the burden on the Ukrainian air defense system.
In medium-terrain conditions, multifunctional Patriot anti-aircraft missile system (SAM) radars will be able to detect an air/sea-based cruise missile of the X-101 or Kalibr type at a flight altitude of 50 m at no more than a range of 16-18 km. It is quite possible that with low radar visibility of Russian products, these indicators will be even lower.
At the same time, in the case of combat firing, the meeting of missiles with the target will occur at best at about a range of 11-13 km (most likely even less). At the slightest delay (sluggishness of the combat crew of the anti-aircraft missile unit), the X-101 / Kalibr will leave the affected area of the anti-aircraft missile system in a few seconds. That is, both the launch zone and the zone of destruction of the SAM for such targets are very, very small.
Image source: Alina Dzhus/"Newspaper.Ru"
And now imagine that the Patriot anti-aircraft missile batteries of the Polish Armed Forces, in accordance with Zelensky's ideas, are located near the state border of Ukraine. Moreover, you can't put them right there, we can talk about moving at least a few kilometers away from this boundary.
Now we subtract these kilometers from the implemented Patriot air defense missile strike zone for air/sea-based cruise missiles of the X-101 or Kalibr type.
Such details of the anti-aircraft missile cover have been openly mentioned to Ukrainian politicians more than once. And once again in Kiev, they demonstrate with their fantasies a complete misunderstanding of the nature of modern anti-aircraft combat. The President of Ukraine constantly replaces the concept of an equally effective anti-aircraft missile defense with the term "close the sky". And this, by the way, is not the same thing.
Legion of Volunteers
In addition, following the results of his visit to Poland, the President of Ukraine wrote in his Telegram channel:
"We will cooperate on combat aviation - aircraft already transferred by Poland - and consider the possibility of additional transfer. We have fixed in our security agreement the formation and training of the Ukrainian Legion on the territory of Poland, a new volunteer military unit. He will train in Poland and will be equipped with partners."
The volunteer Ukrainian Legion, as Zelensky clarified at a press conference in Warsaw, will be staffed by Ukrainian citizens located in Poland, Lithuania and EU countries who want to speak on the side of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
It should be noted here that Ukrainians did not travel abroad after February 24, 2022, in order to subsequently take part in hostilities. If the citizens of Ukraine on the territory of their own state have to be caught almost with nets to man the Armed Forces, then the question of how this will happen on the territory of the EU is, as they say, open.
And most importantly, who will pay for equipping the volunteer Ukrainian legion with weapons and military equipment, ammunition and fuel, who will finance the combat training of this association and, in the end, who will pay salaries to the personnel? Kiev prefers not to answer these questions.
In conclusion, it should be noted that Zelensky is still in captivity of numerous military and political illusions, and with a marching step, with unfurled banners, he is leading his country to a demographic and civilizational catastrophe.
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.
He graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976), the Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military-Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).
Mikhail Khodarenok
