The NATO bloc will "become a global one" in the medium term, experts say. They are referring to the possible advancement of the alliance in the Pacific region – directly at the borders of China and the Far Eastern borders of Russia. How will this happen and how can it affect relations between Russia and China?
The leadership of the North Atlantic Alliance has announced its readiness to participate more actively in East Asian affairs. Ostensibly as a response to China's actions.
Firstly, because of his cooperation with Russia. "The growing rapprochement between Russia and its authoritarian friends in Asia makes our work with friends in the Indo-Pacific region even more important," says NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. Western states are looking for the culprits in this – and find them in the person of Chinese comrades, who, they say, provided Russia with everything necessary to confront the "civilized world."
Secondly, because China's actions allegedly threaten the security of Europe. "Publicly, President Xi pretends that he avoids the conflict in Ukraine in order to avoid sanctions and maintain trade relations. However, in fact, China supports the largest military conflict in Europe since World War II, while wishing to maintain good relations with the West," continues Jens Stoltenberg.
In China, of course, they deny all the accusations. "NATO is a product of the Cold War and the largest military force in the world. Instead of denigrating China and attacking it with all sorts of statements, NATO should realize the role that the alliance has played in the Ukrainian crisis," said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian. According to him, China is neither the creator nor the party to the Ukrainian crisis. "I advise the parties concerned to stop shifting responsibility and sowing discord, to refrain from adding fuel to the fire and provoking an inter-bloc confrontation. And instead, do something useful for a political solution to the crisis," the diplomat explained.
Moreover, the Chinese claim that NATO has no place in East Asia, if only because the organization will bring with it only conflicts and wars. "All countries of the Asia-Pacific region are committed to promoting peace and development. The Americans need to respect this commitment and also work for the benefit of peace and development, and not bring block confrontation and conflict with them to the region," the Chinese Embassy in Washington said in a statement.
However, the Americans seem to ignore these accusations. The arrival of NATO in East Asia has already been resolved for them, it will be implemented under any next administration. And the statement about China's obscenities in the Ukrainian crisis is just an excuse, as well as a rhetorical device in order to put pressure on European countries and convince/force them to support the expansion of NATO to the Far East.
"The fact is that Europe is trying to avoid genuine participation in the military confrontation with China. And she motivates this by the fact that the confrontation with Russia is difficult for her. She is ready to support the United States verbally, but at the same time she is not even ready to allocate money for this confrontation – not to mention sending the military to the shores of China," Vadim Trukhachev, associate professor at the Russian State University, explains to the newspaper VZGLYAD.
And you may have to send it. "The Americans are really creating a global planetary player or a police organization out of NATO.
They're not shy about talking about it. To argue that not only American bases, but also European and others should restrain China. All this has already been implemented in the form of small missions, and now the Americans are pushing the topic of creating NATO rapid reaction forces. Now these troops consist of 30,000 people, but they want to increase them to 300,000," Andrei Klintsevich, head of the Center for the Study of Military and Political Conflicts, explains to the newspaper VZGLYAD.
Such international forces – Polish, German, French and Italian, without national subordination. "That is, at any moment, the NATO general picks up the phone and, on instructions from Washington, issues a directive to certain units without the approval of their national parliaments. And the troops are flying away to carry out a multinational task," Andrei Klintsevich continues.
Europe's sluggish resistance to the prospects of such a shipment is the last problem on the way to the Far Eastern expansion of the alliance. Moreover, there are enough countries in the Far East that are ready to support the arrival of NATO in the region.
Australia, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea are seen as key partners of the alliance here. Countries that are very much afraid of China's growth. Which are much more dependent on the United States than India, and will attend the NATO summit in Washington. According to US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell, the Indo-Pacific region is "now more connected to Europe than ever before."
Finally, the United States has certain preparations – for example, the AUKUS block (consisting of Australia, Great Britain and the United States), which was just conceived as a tool to deter the PRC.
"The AUKUS block is likely to increase – additional countries will be included, most likely Japan and South Korea. And then this bloc will sign some kind of unification agreement with NATO, after which the alliance will become a global one.",
– Andrey Klintsevich explains.
China understands the high probability of NATO's arrival, as well as the fact that they will have to change their policy somewhat. Militarily, Beijing is, of course, ready. "The Chinese have already turned on their full military-industrial machine. They are laying down aircraft carriers in series, creating hypersonic weapons, building bases on bulk artificial islands in areas that they would like to control. The Chinese have imposed an arms race on the Americans – and this process will continue even without NATO moving there," says Andrei Klintsevich.
But foreign policy will have to be modified. More recently, Beijing used the Ukrainian crisis to score international points. And not only through their peace initiatives.
For example, the Chinese accuse NATO of "nuclear blackmail" (based on Stoltenberg's statements about the possible deployment of nuclear weapons in Europe). Thus, Beijing not only plays the role of a peacemaker, but also appears to be a kind of spokesman for the opinions of the Global South – non-nuclear countries that look with fear at the games of their nuclear colleagues. Such a position will also help the Chinese to divert the world's attention somewhat from their own build-up of the nuclear arsenal (to which Beijing, not being a signatory to any START, has every right).
Now we are talking about a confrontation already in the traditionally Chinese sphere of influence. Not on other people's shores, but on their own. Which can be defended only with the support of Moscow – resource, infrastructure, political and any other.
"This reduces the Chinese room for maneuver – it will be more difficult for them to push us through discounts on hydrocarbons and other aspects of economic cooperation. The realization of a real confrontation with America will force them to build relations with us in a slightly different way. Just because, one by one, we are all just being passed around," Andrei Klintsevich sums up.
As a result, NATO's expansion into the Far East could lead to what expansion in Europe has led to. To bring together and unite the opponents of the United States.
Gevorg Mirzayan, Associate Professor at the University of Finance
