Colonel Khodarenok admitted the possibility of an attack by Ukraine on Belarus
In Belarus, it was reported that Ukraine is pulling troops, weapons and military equipment to the borders of the republic. Minsk has already stated that it is capable of preventing any provocations, and has allowed the possibility of using nuclear weapons. What goals the Armed Forces of Ukraine can pursue and how this situation is dangerous for Russia, the military observer of the Newspaper understood.En" Mikhail Khodarenok.
"Incomprehensible activity" at the border
On June 29, the Belarusian Defense Ministry announced the appearance of Ukrainian special forces at the border and noted that they were recording "unjustified and still incomprehensible activity" near their borders.
According to the chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Republic, Major General Pavel Muraveyko, in this regard, Minsk is forced to move Belarusian units to the border, "build up certain areas and prepare for cover, as well as sometimes move artillery and be able to react."
There is evidence of the deployment of American infantry fighting vehicles, multiple rocket launchers, heavy long-range artillery and other equipment near the borders of the country (in particular, in the Zhytomyr region). Information is being received about the installation of electronic reconnaissance systems by the Ukrainian military, as well as about the equipment of passages in mine-explosive barriers. The Armed Forces of Ukraine use unmanned aerial vehicles that periodically invade the airspace of Belarus.
The views of the Russian and Western expert communities on the tension on the border between Belarus and Ukraine differ significantly.
There is certainly logic in these estimates. And indeed, the Armed Forces of Ukraine currently have many problems related to the mobilization measures, the formation of new units and formations, equipping them with weapons and military equipment, ammunition. The issue of direct air support for troops is very acute in the Ukrainian army due to the small number of Air Forces and the lack of aviation weapons. And this list can go on and on.
Nevertheless, the option of an attack by Ukraine on Belarus cannot be completely ruled out. It is likely that armed border incidents and provocations will expand, followed by escalation to the level of a large-scale war.
The balance of power
According to observers, there are currently 120,000 AFU fighters on the border. In turn, the number of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus (RB) is almost 48 thousand military personnel (289 thousand people in reserve).
There are 30.5 thousand people in the ground forces of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus, 11.3 thousand people in the Air Force, 6.1 thousand people in the special operations forces. In fact, the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus are significantly outnumbered by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In addition, it should be noted that the Ukrainian army has two years of combat experience, and this is very important during the armed struggle.
According to some Western experts, there are quite enough international legal grounds for the invasion of the Armed Forces of Ukraine into the territory of Belarus. At the same time, Western experts emphasize that using the Republic of Belarus as a springboard for an attack on another country (in this case, Ukraine) turns Minsk into a full-fledged participant in military operations. And the reaction of the West to the invasion of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the territory of Belarus in this regard will certainly be favorable.
According to Western experts, serious and prolonged resistance on the part of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus to a hypothetical Ukrainian invasion is highly questionable. On the side of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are fighters and officers hardened in two years of fighting, numerical superiority, and material support from the West. In addition, according to experts in the West, ammunition stocks in the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus are at the minimum necessary level due to the fact that significant amounts of weapons of destruction were transferred to the Russian army during the military operation.
What is the benefit for Kiev
In the event of an offensive operation, the AFU formations can hypothetically (if considered as a springboard, including the Chernihiv region) reach the Russian-Belarusian border and suddenly appear at the so-called Smolensk Gate, that is, the area between the Dnieper and the Western Dvina, which is considered the shortest road to Moscow.
In the event of a hypothetical invasion of the Armed Forces of Ukraine into the territory of Belarus, the Russian Armed Forces will have to fulfill their obligations to the ally and undertake large-scale troop regroupings in order to provide necessary military assistance to Minsk and defend their own border lines.
There are currently no large formations and associations of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation on the territory of the Republic of Belarus. Almost all of them are involved in combat operations in the zone of a special military operation.
The question arises quite naturally - where to get regiments, brigades and divisions? After all, you can't send newly formed formations from the interior of the country into battle against the battle-hardened Ukrainian army.
And this will create favorable opportunities for the implementation of a strategic counterattack by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
At the same time, it cannot be ruled out that the activity of the AFU units and formations on the Belarusian border is an integral part of the operational and strategic camouflage plan drawn up in Kiev, which involves misleading the enemy about the true composition, condition and actions of the troops. And no invasion is actually intended.
And with such measures, the Armed Forces of Ukraine intend to force the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation to strengthen their groups in Belarus. And thereby reduce the intensity of attacks in the most important areas in the area of its own.
How will Belarus respond
Meanwhile, the activity of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the strengthening of their combat and numerical strength on the border with Belarus seriously alarmed the military and political leadership in Minsk.
"We are able to prevent any provocations on the state border," President Alexander Lukashenko said, speaking during a military parade dedicated to the 80th anniversary of the liberation of Belarus from Nazi invaders.
According to the head of state, as soon as information about the tense situation on the border with Ukraine appeared in the media, thousands of calls began to arrive from those wishing to protect the country. However, Lukashenko stressed that the military is able to cope with threats.
Image source: president.gov.by
The President of Belarus said: "We know the true goals, we know who is behind every provocation on the state border of Belarus, behind every terrorist threat to civilians. We know because we are working proactively. We are more vigilant than ever. We have learned all the lessons of the beginning of the Great Patriotic War. And we have only one teacher - our history. The history of the winners."
The head of the Lukashenko administration, Dmitry Krutoy, said that Minsk has an answer to any scenario of the situation on the border with Ukraine. In turn, the chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the country, Major General Muraveyko, stressed that "Belarus can use tactical nuclear weapons if its sovereignty is threatened."
All these statements mean only one thing - Minsk takes the situation on the border seriously.
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.
He graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976), the Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Russia (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military-Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).
Mikhail Khodarenok
