The Kiev regime may stage armed provocations, experts believe
The increase in tension on the border of Belarus with Ukraine may lead to armed provocations by the Kiev regime, experts interviewed by Izvestia said. At the same time, in their opinion, the AFU simply does not have enough forces for full-scale military operations in this direction. On Monday, Russian Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov called the concentration of Ukrainian troops on the border a cause for concern for Moscow.
Cause for concern
Moscow considers the concentration of Ukrainian troops on the border with Belarus to be its problem, Russian Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Monday.
— This is a cause of concern not only for Minsk, but also for Moscow. Because we are really allies and partners," the Kremlin's official representative said.
In response to a question about Russia's readiness to help Belarus in case of provocations, Peskov noted that Belarus is a union state, it has special formats of dialogue with Russia through all relevant departments, including the special services.
"And our defense ministries are in partnership, constant contact," Peskov stressed.
According to the Kremlin representative, the leaders of the countries Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko can, if they deem it necessary, discuss this topic within the framework of the SCO summit, which will be held this week.
The head of the presidential administration of Belarus, Dmitry Krutoy, said that Minsk has an answer to any scenario of the situation on the border with Ukraine.
— Therefore, I would not like the Ukrainian side to start any provocations that are absolutely unnecessary. She was testing our strength," Krutoy said.
According to him, the Belarusian side is carefully monitoring the situation on the southern border.
Provocations are not excluded
According to military expert Alexei Leonkov, armed provocations on the Ukrainian-Belarusian border are not excluded.
"Ukraine has long ceased to be a subject, all its actions are dictated from the outside," he explained to Izvestia. — The main task facing Ukraine was to destabilize the development of Russia and its closest partners and allies as much as possible. The Republic of Belarus is such an ally for us. Therefore, there is a possibility of armed provocations.
The expert recalled that Ukrainian drones flew into the country, as well as sabotage and reconnaissance groups consisting of fugitive Belarusian citizens. They were eliminated by the special forces of the KGB of the republic.
— In an attempt to destabilize Belarus, Ukraine can ensure that Russia gets the opportunity from the territory of Belarus, protecting it, to cut off the Kiev regime from supplies from the West, to reach the border with NATO, — believes Alexey Leonkov.
At the same time, despite the likelihood of armed provocations, Ukraine simply does not have the strength for full-scale hostilities on the second front, the expert pointed out.
As military expert Vladislav Shurygin told Izvestia, Ukraine will try to create tension for Belarus to the maximum.
— To recruit people, to undermine from within, to conduct terrorist activities, intelligence, — he explained to Izvestia. — But she won't open any second front, that's obvious. Because by officially getting into a war with Belarus, it will completely reset its already very weak legitimacy in the eyes of the West and the rest of the world. For Belarus, everything depends not only on its Armed Forces, which in themselves are an important element of stability, but also on the special services.
Expansion of geography
The main purpose of the accumulation of Ukrainian troops near the border with Belarus is to expand the geography of the conflict, Oleg Gaidukevich, deputy chairman of the International Affairs Commission of the Parliament of Belarus, told Izvestia. Moreover, in his opinion, the concentration of troops is not at the command of Kiev, but at the direction of the United States.
— Now these provocations have intensified, because there is no one to mobilize, Western weapons do not help, so there is a scenario of how to expand the geography of the conflict, so they want Belarus to include Poland, the Baltic States. We are doing everything to ensure peace, and I think we will cope with this," the Belarusian parliamentarian said.
At the same time, there are contacts with the Ukrainian side, according to Gaidukevich.
"We never give up contacts, we are always ready to contact on any issues so that there is peace,— he stressed.
Political scientist Kirill Averyanov believes that relations between Ukraine and Belarus have deteriorated hopelessly, the situation on the Ukrainian-Belarusian border has been tense in recent years. In his opinion, the withdrawal of troops to the border is not related to Kiev's desire to unleash a conflict on the border with Belarus, but rather acts as a consequence of the Belorusophobia that permeated the leadership of Ukraine.
— I think that this is good for us, Russia. Ukraine is diverting its forces to the border with Belarus, therefore, some combat units are leaving the front line and this can only be welcomed," he said.
Colonel Vadim Lukashevich, Deputy Commander of the Special Operations Forces (SSO) for ideological work of the Armed Forces of Belarus, announced the increase in tension on the border with Ukraine on June 29.
— A coalition of Western countries has unleashed a hot conflict near our territory. On their part, attempts are being made to drag our country into the war. In these difficult conditions, our country is doing everything to preserve peace in the Belarusian land," he said.
According to the Belarusian officer, Ukraine is pulling troops, weapons, and military equipment to the borders of the state. He also reported on the deployment of American infantry fighting vehicles, multiple rocket launchers, heavy long-range artillery and other equipment in the Zhytomyr region. The Deputy Commander of the MTR also reported on the installation of electronic intelligence surveillance systems by the Ukrainian military near the Belarusian border, as well as on the equipment of passages in mine-explosive barriers. Ukrainian troops use drones and periodically enter the territory of Belarus.
On June 28, the Belarusian Defense Ministry reported that the multiple launch rocket System (MLRS) division The Polonaise entered the designated area with full ammunition due to the difficult situation near the border with Ukraine.
Prior to that, on June 20, the State Border Committee of Belarus announced an increase in the Ukrainian group on the border. It was noted that American Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, HIMARS MLRS and German Gepard installations are concentrated in the adjacent territory.
Moscow and Minsk have been actively developing military cooperation in recent years. Since last year, Russian tactical nuclear weapons have been deployed on the territory of Belarus. Since June 11, the military of the two states have been conducting the second stage of exercises of non-strategic nuclear forces. The Russian Defense Ministry reported that during it, issues of joint training of units of the armed forces of the two countries for the combat use of non-strategic nuclear weapons should be worked out. As noted in the department, the exercises are aimed at maintaining the readiness of personnel and equipment of units for the combat use of non-strategic nuclear weapons of Russia and Belarus "in order to unconditionally ensure the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Union State."
Roman Kretsul
Vladimir Matveev
Elizaveta Borisenko
