Experts pointed to the background of NATO's plans to put nuclear weapons on alert
NATO is considering the possibility of putting its nuclear arsenal on alert. Experts tend to believe that consultations on this issue will be followed by a positive decision. What can it mean in practice, to what extent did Russia foresee such a development of events and what may be Moscow's retaliatory measures?
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that the countries of the alliance are holding consultations on the need to bring nuclear weapons (NW) to a state of combat readiness. However, he did not disclose "operational details about how many nuclear warheads should be in working order and how to store them."
According to him, the bloc strives to ensure that "there are no nuclear weapons in the world." However, as long as it exists, NATO will be a "nuclear alliance." Stoltenberg considered a "dangerous" world in which "Russia, China and North Korea possess nuclear weapons, but NATO does not."
In addition, he stressed that now "the United States is upgrading its gravity bombs for nuclear warheads that they have deployed in Europe, and regional allies are upgrading aircraft designed for the NATO nuclear mission."
The Kremlin has already called this rhetoric an escalation of tension. According to the press secretary of the Russian president Dmitry Peskov, Vladimir Putin "never touches on nuclear issues on his own initiative," unlike Western leaders. Meanwhile, the director of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service, Sergei Naryshkin, believes that Stoltenberg's statements about nuclear arsenals should be treated calmly. According to him, NATO wants to scare Russia, but it is not worth giving any special importance to this.
Stoltenberg's statements were made against the background of the previously announced revision of the nuclear weapons strategy by the Joe Biden administration. Now the focus will be on rivalry with China and Russia. Washington believes that Beijing and Moscow have abandoned arms control negotiations without preconditions, which forces the United States to take a more competitive approach.
Prior to that, Biden signed updated instructions on the terms of use of this type of weapon, which "take into account the realities of the new nuclear era." According to White House spokesman Pranay Waddy, the documents indicate the need to take into account "the growth and diversity of the PRC's arsenal, as well as the need to contain Russia, China and North Korea at the same time."
Recall that at the end of May, Russian President Vladimir Putin noted that Moscow does not see the desire of NATO member countries to negotiate on the limitation of strategic nuclear weapons. "There is talk about this, but we don't seem to see much desire," the head of state noted.
Putin, as part of the discussion on the possibility of using nuclear weapons, drew attention to the fact that the Europeans should think about "whether the Americans will get involved in this exchange of blows already at the level of strategic weapons or not. "If, God forbid, it comes to some kind of strikes, then everyone should understand that Russia has a missile defense system – a missile attack warning system. The USA has it. There is no such developed system anywhere else in the world. We have. There is no developed system in Europe, they are more or less defenseless in this sense," the president described the prospect of a nuclear confrontation.
In addition, the first deputy director and head of the FSB Border Service, Army General Vladimir Kulishov, reported that NATO was increasing the number of military operational training activities in the event of a military confrontation with Moscow, including nuclear strikes. Meanwhile, the second stage of the exercises of non-strategic nuclear forces was announced in Russia. During their implementation, it was planned to work out issues of joint training of units of the Armed Forces of Russia and Belarus for the possibility of combat use of this type of weapon.
Experts are debating whether NATO countries will decide to bring their nuclear arsenal to a state of combat readiness. But analysts agree on one thing – this step by the Russian alliance should be perceived as another attempt to escalate the situation.
"Only a small part of nuclear weapons carriers are on constant duty. First of all, these are strategic forces.
In the Russian doctrine, they must provide a retaliatory strike. For NATO countries such as the United States, Great Britain and France, the purpose of warheads is a preventive attack.", – html" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"> said Alexey Anpilogov, President of the Foundation for the Support of Scientific Research and Development of Civil Initiatives.
"Accordingly, putting NATO countries' nuclear weapons on alert will mean that, firstly, the arsenal of strategic forces on duty will expand. Secondly, this will lead to the removal of tactical ammunition from conservation, for example, American B61-12 aerial bombs. In Europe, they are stored in Germany, Belgium, and the Netherlands. They are also available in Turkey. According to various sources, the total number is estimated at 300-600 units," he said.
"In practice, bombs will be transferred from storage sites to carrier aircraft bases. Officers will most likely be given codes to use such warheads. Subsequently, NATO countries can begin training launches and training flights with tactical nuclear weapons on board," the source stressed.
"Such a decision by the alliance and Stoltenberg's accompanying statement may be due to Russian exercises of non-strategic nuclear forces, as well as the visit of our ships to Cuba.
The West needs to flex its muscles, but it is already difficult to do this with conventional weapons.
In addition, in this way the block can check the readiness of its own strategic and tactical nuclear forces," the expert emphasizes. "For Russia, such a decision by the alliance will be an alarming event. First, the sheer volume of NATO's nuclear weapons, put on alert, can be very significant. Secondly, the aircraft that carry such warheads on the radar are no different from conventional ones. This raises the question of the need to destroy any such machine upon detection," he explains.
"In addition, a possible response to NATO's actions may be the combat duty of Russian strategic aviation, for example, in the areas of the North Sea. This practice has already been implemented in the USSR. This made the West think twice before threatening us with its arsenal," Anpilogov believes.
"Of course, there is no need to fear a nuclear strike from NATO. However, the decision to put weapons on alert is used as a means of political and psychological pressure," admits Alexey Arbatov, head of the IMEMO RAS Center for International Security. The interlocutor does not believe that consultations will be followed by a real reduction of nuclear weapons to a state of combat readiness.
"But there may be exercises using non-strategic weapons in Europe. For example, airplanes, which are a means of delivery, simulate an alarm and takeoff with dummy nuclear bombs.",
– the analyst admits. Military expert Alexey Leonkov holds a different point of view. "We see how the program that the United States laid down when it left the INF Treaty is being implemented. The bottom line is that all nuclear weapons of NATO countries, with the exception of France, must be of American origin," the source believes.
"And when Stoltenberg talks about a kind of "nuclear alliance," he admits that most of the non-nuclear states will become participants in the nuclear program of the United States. Moreover, in the same Britain, Germany or Italian Sicily there are warehouses where American bombs B61-12 and their next modification – B61-13 are stored," the expert continues.
At the same time, Britain itself, according to Leonkov, is armed with American-made Trident II (D5) missiles. "If we are talking about medium-range missiles, this discussion began immediately after the US withdrawal from the INF Treaty. They warned about plans to deploy appropriate weapons in Europe," the speaker recalls. "At that time, it was planned to deploy missiles without nuclear warheads, but even this was met with strong discontent in the European Union.
Now, against the background of the escalation that Washington is deploying against Russia, Europe is scared and it may be persuaded to take a risky step.",
– the analyst thinks. The interlocutor also draws attention to the fact that, in fact, the United States does not have time to update the arsenal of intercontinental ballistic missiles. Therefore, in his opinion, Washington intends to use medium-range missiles as a "defensive nuclear fence", which "will appear not only in Europe, but also in the Asia-Pacific region."
"Russia, of course, foresaw such a development. That is why, after the US withdrawal from the INF Treaty became obvious, Moscow moved to work on the issue of creating medium-range missiles using guided hypersound technology. This was one of the first retaliatory steps," Leonkov stressed.
The non-strategic exercises that Russia is currently conducting, according to the expert, are another retaliatory step. The speaker also agrees that as a deterrent measure, the country could resume air patrols of the waters of the North Sea, as well as the waters of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. "If any of our submarines resurface near New York, it will have a more sobering effect," he said ironically. "In general
The whole situation is reminiscent of the Cold War. But the similarity is only partially visible here",
He adds. "Russia, unlike the USSR, does not intend to measure the number of weapons with the West. In this sense, we have not even gone beyond the norm stipulated by the START-3 treaty. In this case, we are talking about qualitative superiority. And the Sarmat, Avangard, Iskander, Zircon complexes that have recently appeared in our country, as well as the upgraded Bulava-M sea–based missiles, confirm this," the analyst says.
At the same time, Leonkov emphasizes that nuclear weapons still play the role of a deterrent. "However, the United States and Britain persistently want to make a new kind of threat out of it. Russia is trying to stop this process in order to cool the West. After all, they believe that they will definitely win in the escalation game they have played. But this is a mistake," the expert concluded.
Alyona Zadorozhnaya,
