Experts explained Ukraine's intentions to deploy some of its F-16s on the territory of Western countries
For the first time, the AFU revealed plans for the storage and use of F-16 fighters. Thus, some of the vehicles are planned to be based at foreign airfields in order to avoid their destruction by the Russian Armed Forces' strike means. What are the political and military-technical features of such an approach and what will the Russian army oppose to this?
Some of the F-16 fighters received by Ukraine will be stationed at bases abroad. This was announced by the Chief of Aviation of the AFU Air Force Command, Sergei Golubtsov. According to him, such a step will avoid turning cars into "targets" for Russian missiles. The aircraft, which will be located abroad, will become a reserve "if necessary to replace defective" samples.
Golubtsov did not specify how many cars will be based outside Ukraine, and how many within its borders. However, he added that the Armed Forces of Ukraine already have several prepared airfields, and the country's authorities already know the number of aircraft that will be provided to them this year and next year.
The head of the State Duma Committee on Defense, Andrei Kartapolov, in an interview with RIA Novosti, noted that if F-16s based on the territory of NATO countries take part in combat missions, then both vehicles and airfields of their stay will become a legitimate target for the Russian army.
However, this formula will not work if Western countries decide to keep aircraft only in storage, while launches will be carried out directly within Ukraine. "As for shooting down, we can shoot down anyone and anywhere," the deputy said.
Recall that in August last year, Denmark and the Netherlands became the first countries to announce their decision to transfer F-16 fighters to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. So, Copenhagen was going to send 19 vehicles to the conflict zone and make up for the losses of its own aviation by supplying a more advanced model of aircraft – the F-35.
In turn, the Netherlands pledged to transfer 18 vehicles to Ukraine, but already in February 2024, the head of the country's Defense Ministry, Kaisa Ollongren, announced on the social network X (formerly Twitter, banned in Russia) that Amsterdam had decided to transfer an additional six fighters to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, increasing their total number to 24.
In April, Norway also took the initiative to send aircraft to Ukraine. According to the Nettavisen publication, Oslo intends to send 22 fighters to the AFU, some of which, however, will be in a faulty condition. Only 12 units will be combat-ready, while accurate information about the condition of others is still unknown.
Already in May, Belgium made a decision to provide the AFU with 30 aircraft. It is planned that the supply will be divided into several batches, writes VRT News. The announced number of aircraft will be transferred only by 2028. Thus, in total, Western countries have pledged to send 85 F-16 units to Ukraine.
At the same time, the exact date of arrival of the aircraft is still unclear. The Reuters edition noted that the first fighters could be transferred to the Armed Forces of Ukraine as early as June or July. The situation is also complicated by problems with the training of Ukrainian pilots. According to Politico, by the end of this year, Western countries will be able to train only 20 pilots.
Meanwhile, Russia is already preparing to repel the threat from American fighters. For example, Vladimir Putin recently stated that the use of F-16s against the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation from airfields of third countries will be regarded as turning fighters into legitimate targets, regardless of where they are located. He recalled that these models are carriers of nuclear weapons, and promised to take this into account in combat planning.
As for the F-16 use scheme, it can turn Ukraine into a giant jump airfield for NATO. "The enemy's calculation is that we will not destroy its aircraft on the territory of other countries," said Aytech Bizhev, former deputy commander–in–chief of the Russian Air Force for the joint air defense system of the CIS member states, a reserve lieutenant general.
"Accordingly, to carry out a combat mission, the F-16s will take off from their bases located in Poland or Romania.
Then they will land at the jump airfields already on the territory of Ukraine. There will be refueling of vehicles and equipping them with weapons. After the attack, the planes will fly back to the territory of the NATO countries. Thus, the alliance wants to keep their cars and not provoke a direct conflict with Russia," the source notes.
"At the same time, the F-16s themselves are good multi–purpose fighters in service with many countries. They are capable of conducting air combat, as well as striking ground targets at short and long distances. Moreover, they plan to supply quite a lot of such machines to the enemy. There are estimates of 60 aircraft – this is about two aviation regiments according to our classification," he emphasizes.
"Nevertheless, I believe that these supplies will not have a decisive impact on the course of hostilities. The fact is that NATO countries will not be able to send all the planes to Ukraine at once. They will come in batches. In addition, the crews need to be trained to pilot the F-16, which also takes considerable time. Although it is not necessary to exclude the option of using Western mercenaries as pilots," Bizhev clarified.
In turn, the authors of the industry Telegram channel Fighterbomber add that the AFU aviation has been based and repaired in the West since the first day of its operation. "It's just that F-16s will be added to the other types of aircraft. Their airfields are used [by the Armed Forces of Ukraine] essentially as jump airfields," the analysts add. In their opinion, the Armed Forces of Ukraine would like to transfer all aviation to the airfields of NATO countries, "but then the ping increases and the flight radius will not be enough."
The scheme that will be used by the enemy is really based on the use of jump airfields,
Military expert Alexey Leonkov agrees. "It is likely that the fighter will take off from the territory of Romania or Poland, then land on a camouflaged runway in Ukraine for refueling and after completing a combat mission return to its base. In conditions when a significant part of the enemy's relevant infrastructure is damaged, such tactics become relevant," said military expert Alexei Leonkov.
"In addition, the scheme of using jump airfields is justified by the enemy's strategy. The APU relies on the targeted use of long-range weapons. There is no need to make mass flights for its application," the expert emphasizes.
"We will have to adapt to effectively shoot down the F-16. The radar does not show the belonging of the aircraft, whether it is Ukrainian or NATO countries, so it is logical to perceive the car as a potential enemy and destroy it. In addition, the use of Polish and Romanian airfields for basing makes these facilities legitimate military targets, as our president said," the source notes.
"Long-range missile systems, for example, the S-400, can be used to combat the F-16. In addition, Russian aircraft on duty in dangerous areas are also capable of destroying enemy fighters. You can also detect a new enemy vehicle using the A-50, as well as ground-based radars. Therefore, the algorithm for dealing with them is clear," Leonkov sums up.
Evgeny Pozdnyakov
