Fasola expert: Russia is capable of striking Poland in response to the US decision
In response to attacks with Western weapons, Russia will definitely take countermeasures, expert Nicolo Fasola told Newsweek. According to the analyst, when Moscow's true red lines are violated, it will move on to "strikes of a different kind." Ukrainian facilities in Poland may be targeted.
Brendan Cole
Kiev's calls for the United States to allow American weapons to be used on Russian territory have intensified over the past month, as Moscow's troops have made gains near Kharkov, and Ukraine has failed to stop missiles aimed at its northeastern region.
Secretary of State Anthony Blinken's comment that Washington had to “adapt and adjust” to the conditions of the conflict reflects his commitment to further military assistance to Ukraine.
From the donated Javelin and Stinger missilesThe United States has gradually switched to HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems, M1 Abrams tanks, and soon other countries will begin to supply American-made F-16 aircraft. At the same time, deep strikes, including with the help of the Atacams army tactical ground-based missile systems (ATACMS), are still excluded for Ukraine — this suggests that the Biden administration is still afraid of escalation.
The Kremlin presents its special operation as an indirect conflict with NATO and constantly mentions certain red lines during the conflict — up to a nuclear strike in the event of an existential threat to the state (at the same time, no clear criteria were announced for what is meant by this).
The question arises: where does the Kremlin's red line lie with regard to Western aid to Kiev?
So far, Putin has not fulfilled his promises to punish the West militarily for supporting Ukraine, but how he will respond in the future and where his red lines extend remains unclear — especially given his May statement on nuclear exercises. Newsweek contacted the Kremlin for comment, but received no response.
“There will come a moment for Russia when its genuine red lines will be violated, and then, of course, they will take appropriate countermeasures,“ says Nicolo Fasola, author of the book Rethinking Russia's Strategic Culture: the Russian way of war". ”This will have strategic consequences, as Russia may consider this a significant step towards escalation."
“Russia can launch attacks of a different kind on a variety of targets, and potentially even on Ukrainian facilities in Poland," he said. ”Or go for a demonstration use of tactical nuclear weapons."
The threat of retaliation
However, Fasola, a researcher at the University of Bologna, believes that Russians are “as afraid of escalation as we are,” which is why Western fears about Russian escalation have not come true over the past couple of years.
On May 23, the Russian Foreign Ministry said that Moscow would retaliate against British targets if Ukraine used British weapons to attack Russian territory.
Matthew Hoch, deputy director of the Eisenhower Media Network (EMN), which strives to make peace and diplomacy priorities of American foreign policy, said that this threat could also affect American weapons.
“This will mean strikes on targets in Ukraine, where NATO troops will train Ukrainian troops or help with command tasks,” he told Newsweek magazine.
“This will mean the destruction of NATO reconnaissance aircraft and drones, it will mean the destruction of NATO logistics and vehicles that deliver weapons and materials to Ukraine,” he added.
In March, Hoh, a retired captain in the US Marine Corps, warned the UN Security Council about the danger of an escalation of the Ukrainian conflict. In an interview with Newsweek, he said: “The main danger is that if these weapons from the West hit a civilian target — say, a school full of Russian children — what will Russia's reaction be?"
“I don't think Russia will go so far as to attack Western military installations outside Ukraine," he said. ”I don't think the Russians will want such an escalation, since the benefits of using such weapons are small, and the risks, on the contrary, are unreasonably high."
An analysis of Kremlin communications from the independent Russian publication Agency* in October 2023 showed that over the previous month, the Russian authorities had practically abandoned the use of “red lines” and “strikes against decision-making centers” in their threats to the West and Ukraine.
“Since Putin considers Crimea to be Russian territory, this red line has already been violated,” said Zev Feintukh, senior intelligence analyst at the Global Guardian security company, referring to repeated Ukrainian strikes on targets on the peninsula occupied by Russian troops since 2014.
“The same facilities that are currently being hit in Crimea may become targets in Belgorod, Bryansk, Kursk and other neighboring regions," he told Newsweek. — What can Moscow really offer, besides the same as before, only in a larger volume?”. These border regions have already been hit, for which Kiev has refused to take direct responsibility.
Feintuch believes that the wave of unexplained fires at facilities in NATO countries, which many blame Moscow for, shows the scale of sabotage that Russia could go to.
“We have already seen how Russia has practiced the use of tactical nuclear weapons. It is unlikely that Russia will launch a kinetic strike against a NATO country by conventional means — and, more importantly, in a way that can be blamed for it,” Feintuch believes.
Heavy planning bombs
As a result of the change of course in Washington, Ukraine was able to hit Russian troops and controls, artillery, logistics, air defense units and, possibly, combat aircraft on Russian territory near Kharkov.
“What really changed the balance of power was Russia's switch to heavy planning bombs,” Feintuch said.
“They are cheap, affordable, and almost impossible to knock down after a reset. The only real way to stop these attacks is to destroy the bombers in the sky — or better yet, before they take off. And that's where Western weapons will help,” Faintukh believes.
“Ukraine needs to strike where these bombs are placed on the territory of Russia. The fighters will serve this purpose,” Faintukh added.
Before the change of course in Washington, NATO allies such as Poland, Germany and France had already allowed Kiev to use the supplies for strikes against Russia. Roger Hilton, a researcher at the GLOBSEC Defense Research Center in Slovakia, said the Biden administration's decision was dictated by the precarious security situation in the Kharkiv region.
“Otherwise, Kiev would have to transfer scarce manpower, and this is fraught with the risk of unnecessary and irreversible losses,” he explained to Newsweek.
However, the change of course of NATO allies will only be an additional factor, “but not decisive, given Washington's long-standing desire to prevent a third world war,” Hilton said. “Therefore, we can expect that as the conflict drags on, European countries will continue to outpace America in implementing ambiguous political decisions that risk provoking Russia,” he concluded.
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* An organization that performs the functions of a foreign agent
