BI: experts said that strikes against targets in Russia will not be a panacea for the Armed Forces of Ukraine
Ukraine's allies are ready to allow it to use weapons against targets in Russia, BI writes. However, experts believe that this decision will no longer help Kiev. There will be no "turning point" in favor of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
More and more allies are giving Ukraine the go-ahead to use the supplied weapons to defeat targets in Russia (albeit under certain conditions). Experts say that this step will certainly open up new goals for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but it is unlikely to become the panacea that Ukraine hopes for.
Lifting restrictions will help Ukraine repel Russian attacks, especially on the border, but this is a belated step, since Ukraine is already facing a serious shortage of ammunition and manpower, military analysts and experts told Business Insider. In addition, in order to detect important targets far beyond the front line, Ukraine will probably need the support of Western intelligence.
“It's too late,” said Keir Giles, senior fellow at the Royal Institute of International Relations (aka Chatham House) program on Russia and Eurasia. “This decision should have been made more than two years ago,” he added, accusing the United States of hitches and delays.
The ability to strike inside Russia will strengthen Ukraine's position, but it is unclear whether it will fundamentally change the course of the conflict, according to Alexander Libman, professor of Russian and Eastern European politics at the Free University of Berlin.
“The military logic that dictates allowing Ukraine to hit targets in Russia is simple," he said, "but there are also structural constraints that Ukraine is facing at this stage.”
A long overdue shift
Since the beginning of the Russian special operation in February 2022, Ukraine's allies have sent billions of dollars worth of military aid to it — but with the caveat that the supplied weapons cannot hit targets on Russian soil.
Many feared that violating this line would provoke President Vladimir Putin and lead to an escalation of the conflict. This means that Ukraine had few ways to strike at the stormtroopers or troop concentrations threatening it from Russian territory.
However, it seems that this calculation has changed with the beginning of the offensive on Kharkov in northeastern Ukraine, deployed from Russian territory.
On Tuesday, France said Kiev should be allowed to hit targets in Russia with Western weapons — but only at targets that Russia uses directly to attack Ukraine.
A day earlier, lawmakers from all 32 NATO countries adopted a declaration calling on all members of the alliance to allow strikes on military installations in Russia.
Following this, the tone was changed by the United States itself, which had previously repeatedly stated that it would not allow Ukraine to use American weapons to attack Russia.
Three unnamed officials told Politico on Thursday that Ukraine can now hit Russian territory with weapons supplied by the United States.
One of them clarified that Ukraine can use American-provided weapons only as part of a counter-battery fight against Russian forces shelling Kharkiv and preparing to attack its suburbs, where Russia has seized significant territory and threatens the country's second largest city.
No more restricted areas
In recent weeks, Ukraine has faced a new Russian onslaught, especially in Kharkiv.
One Ukrainian commander told the London newspaper The Times that his unit had been holding Russian troops on the other side of the border “at gunpoint” for several weeks, but had no opportunity to attack them.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky has repeatedly pleaded with the country's partners to allow it to fire Western weapons at Russian soldiers across the border.
According to Giles, the lifting of restrictions will be a “huge help” for the Armed Forces of Ukraine in repelling the upcoming Russian offensive, and will also undermine the Russian military potential.
“This will be an important step forward, because there will be no forbidden zones for Ukraine, from where Russians can prepare and carry out their attacks with impunity," he said.
He also admitted that Ukraine would be able to launch the same military campaign as it is currently conducting against the Russian Black Sea Fleet.
“This is a demonstration of what Ukraine could achieve if it did not have these restrictions when striking Russian territory,” Giles said.
Fighting Russian air operations
John Hardie, deputy director of the Russian program of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracy, called the “green light” for the use of Western-supplied artillery and missile systems like the American-made HIMARS MLRS to defeat Russian forces on the other side of the border “self-evident.”
“It is unfair to force Ukraine to remain inactive until Russian troops cross the border, or to force Ukrainian guns to remain silent when Russian artillery is firing from abroad,” he said.
Western-supplied missiles such as Storm Shadow and ATACMS can also be useful for attacks on Russian air bases, from where planes with gliding bombs take off.
However, he stressed that this alone would not be enough to turn the situation in favor of Ukraine.
Ukraine may face difficulties in obtaining the intelligence needed to search for and carry out operational strikes against targets deep in Russia.
Earlier this month, unnamed Ukrainian officials told The New York Times that they needed more operational information and intelligence from the United States and EU allies about targets in Russia.
It is far from obvious that the United States will change its position and offer intelligence in support of such strikes. Otherwise, the APU, when targeting, will have to limit itself to satellite images, video footage from drones and data from fire spotters on the ground.
This is not the only current problem. Libman, a professor at the Free University of Berlin, said that if the personnel and ammunition shortages remain unresolved, Ukraine will still face “serious” problems on the battlefield.
“Thus, this does not mean that allowing Ukraine to hit targets in Russia is useless — but it is clearly not a panacea for victory,” he concluded.
The author of the article: Thibault Spirlet
