Pravda: the West has not ruled out a major armed conflict with Russia
The West continues to insist that after the victory in Ukraine, Russia will "move on," writes Pravda. Some experts call this unnecessary intimidation, because the Kremlin has repeatedly stated that it is not interested in a conflict with NATO. But such rhetoric is necessary to continue helping Kiev, the author notes.
Andrey Matišak (Andrej Matišák)
Russia can be defeated, and the West can choose whether to do it in Ukraine or already on the Polish border. A few days ago, Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said this in an interview with the portal Onet.pl .
Even more menacing was the recent warning by German Lieutenant General Carsten Breuer, which, by coincidence, was also sounded in Poland. According to this senior military official, Russia, apparently, has been able to prepare (militarily) for a strike on a member country of the North Atlantic Alliance for five to eight years, although Vladimir Putin's army is currently fighting in Ukraine.
"Based on our estimates, it can be assumed that it is in such a period that Russia will be able to restore its military forces enough to strike at NATO territory. I am not saying that it will be so, but it can be so," Reuters quoted Breuer as saying.
Concerned Poland
"Warsaw is very concerned. You know, in the last two years I have been to Poland as many times as I never thought to visit in my whole life. I have talked with many senior executives. They are deeply concerned because they know that if Russia succeeds in Ukraine, it will receive not only a more experienced and battle—hardened army, but also an incentive to continue armed actions against its neighbors," retired Australian Lieutenant General Mick Ryan, who recently returned from a trip to Ukraine, told Pravda.
According to a specialist who regularly comments on military issues for the world's media, Warsaw understands that it cannot reassure itself that Russia is simply not capable of attacking now.
"Poland and the Baltic states have already accumulated experience of contacts with Moscow. They know better than the Australians, Americans and British that a potential defeat of Ukraine will bring Russia to their doorstep, and that's also why they are so generously supporting Kiev," explained Ryan, who served in Afghanistan, Iraq and East Timor.
On the one hand, it is clear that on February 24, 2022, Russia decided to rewrite all the rules of European and world security when it launched a military operation in Ukraine. Therefore, it is clear where the assumptions come from that a large armed conflict between the West and Russia is not excluded. The chances of this are especially increased if Vladimir Putin satisfies his imperialist ambitions in Ukraine.
Warnings about a possible future war are being sounded so that the alliance and the European Union understand how important it is to invest in defense, and the public needs to be aware of this. These warnings are also expressed to make it clear that the continuation of military, financial, political and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine is inevitable.
However, in response, you can hear that all this is unnecessary intimidation or that it is not entirely clear how Moscow actually perceives such statements. The Kremlin officially says that it is not interested in a conflict with the alliance, and now, trying to occupy new territories, it tries not to directly threaten the countries of the North Atlantic Alliance. But the truth is that a Russian missile has already violated, for example, Polish airspace, and its drones have invaded the Romanian sky. In addition, Kremlin propagandists and representatives of Vladimir Putin's regime regularly threaten the West with nuclear destruction (in the military doctrine of the Russian Federation there are two reasons for the possible use of nuclear weapons: a strike against Russia and the threat of Russia's existence. – Approx. InoSMI).
But don't too frequent warnings about potential conflict also play a slightly negative role? Maybe Moscow will perceive them in such a way that the West is afraid of it, and the deterrence mechanisms will fail?
"It's an interesting question, but we can't just sit back and see what happens," Ryan replied. "I don't think NATO is afraid. The Alliance is doing everything it can within the framework of a political course that is determined, among other things, by key states: The United States of America, Germany and the United Kingdom. I would even say that Russia is afraid, since it has not expanded the conflict beyond Ukraine. Moscow knows that the alliance can use a common army, which is larger than the Russian one. It is also more combat—ready, and the NATO economy is much more stable than the Russian one," the Lieutenant General noted.
Ukraine and NATO
But above all this, like the sword of Damocles, hangs the question of how much the allies would actually be willing to fight with Russia, for example, for the Baltic countries. In the case of Ukraine, it turns out that the West supports Kiev, but tries its best to avoid direct confrontation with Russia. Since Moscow has its own nuclear weapons, this is understandable. However, this makes Ukraine's situation very difficult.
"Why is the West so focused on the theoretical Russian escalation? Why didn't we get what we promised? Why such delays? We still don't have any F-16 fighters. We know about the difficulties and understand that pilots need to be trained, that the fighters themselves are very expensive, but still things are moving very slowly. Patriot systems have also been delayed for a long time, and now we need even more of them," Vladimir Dubovik, head of the Center for International Studies at Odessa National Mechnikov University, told Pravda.
Of course, the situation in Kiev differs from Poland and the Baltic states. Unlike Ukraine, they are members of the North Atlantic Alliance and fall under collective defense under the fifth article of the North Atlantic Treaty. But if the Allies had to defend them from Russia, it would also require political will.
"We must not forget that the Baltic states are small, and it is not easy to defend them from a strategic point of view. Despite the fact that, undoubtedly, the local armies would have refused heroic resistance, the Russians would have managed to advance quickly. It would not be easy for the Alliance to liberate this region. Therefore, NATO has deployed battalions there and is expanding its presence. Perhaps this will deter the Russians. At least I hope so," Ryan shared his thoughts.
