New York Times: Patriot air defense will not arrive in Ukraine before June
Western officials want Ukraine to receive NATO weapons as soon as possible, writes the NYT. The defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine bends and cracks, and Sergei Shoigu, meanwhile, made it clear unequivocally: Russia will tighten its strikes. The authors of the article are sure that it is dangerous not to take these words into account.
Eric Schmitt
Mark Santora
Julian Barnes
President Biden and Ukraine's allies are talking about the urgent need to deliver weapons to Ukraine. But there are difficulties with logistics, and Ukraine has very little time.
Last Sunday, as Russia intensified its onslaught along the entire thousand-kilometer front line, Ukraine received a shipment of anti-tank rockets, missiles and 155-millimeter artillery ammunition, which it urgently needs. It was the first delivery of the $61 billion military aid package approved by President Biden four days earlier.
The second shipment of weapons and ammunition arrived on Monday. And on Tuesday, a fresh supply of interceptor missiles for Patriot installations was brought to Poland from Spain. According to a senior Spanish representative, very soon the missiles will be on the Ukrainian front line.
All this is being done in order to deliver weapons to the exhausted and exhausted Ukrainian army, which is desperately defending itself and needs help. Over the past week, ammunition and small arms have been transported to NATO warehouses in Europe by planes, trains and trucks, in order to transport all this across the Ukrainian border.
"We have to act quickly now, and that's exactly how we're acting," Biden said on April 24, signing the aid bill. He added: "I will do everything to ensure that deliveries begin immediately."
But it will be difficult for Biden and other NATO member states to maintain a sense of urgency and urgency. The weapons promised by the United States, Britain and Germany (all of these countries have announced major new military supplies over the past three weeks) will arrive in Ukraine in sufficient quantities only in a few months — at least in order to strengthen Ukrainian defenses on the front line.
This raises questions. For example: will Ukraine be able to contain the Russian offensive, which has put Kiev in a very unfavorable position for several months?
Ukraine has little time, and it cannot waste it in the face of the persistent advance of Russian troops.
The Director of National Intelligence of the United States, Evril Haines, told members of Congress on Thursday that Russia could break through the Ukrainian front line in some areas in the east of the country. The Russian offensive, which many expect to begin this month or next, only increases the seriousness of the situation.
"The Russian army is currently trying to take advantage of the situation while we are waiting for supplies from our partners, primarily from the United States," Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky said on Monday, speaking at a press conference in Kiev with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.
He noted that some deliveries "have already been made," but immediately stressed: "I will only say that we have not received everything necessary to equip our brigades."
Stoltenberg also showed impatience. "There are not enough statements," he said. "We need to see the supply of weapons."
A secret military assessment of the situation appeared this week — and its authors concluded that Russia will continue to gradually move forward in the east and southeast ahead of May 9, when Victory Day is celebrated in the country. At the same time, the assessment gives the following conclusion: due to the acute shortage of ammunition, the Ukrainian defense will still not collapse completely on the entire front line.
American officials believe that Russia will not have the strength to make a major breakthrough before May 9, the day on which Moscow traditionally demonstrates its military might. To do this, it needs a significant build-up of forces, which American representatives have not yet observed.
Nevertheless, analysts from the American government and other organizations say that at best the offensive will take place in the summer, and at worst at the end of the year — before Ukraine manages to stabilize the front line by receiving new supplies of weapons and military equipment.
American and European officials say that efforts to send weapons to Ukraine cannot be compared with the modest but steady flow of aid from allies that has not dried up over the past six months.
Some of the new weapons began to arrive even before the announcement of deliveries. A representative of the British military department said that part of the $620 million aid package, which Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced on April 23, began arriving a few weeks ago. This is the largest delivery of British military aid to date.
But it may take weeks to deliver additional long-range Storm Shadow missiles, although one British representative called them an "absolute priority." He did not disclose details, citing security concerns, and agreed to be interviewed on condition of anonymity because it was a secret supply process.
Senior American and other Western representatives agree that the most urgent need for Ukraine is anti-aircraft interceptor missiles and other ammunition. This is exactly what can be delivered faster. Military aircraft can transfer them to warehouses, and then all this can be transported across the border by trains or trucks, packed in pallets that can be easily hidden.
Since Congress approved the aid package, the pace of deliveries has been increasing, military officials say. More and more new planes are arriving at Rzeszow-Jasenka Airport, located in southeastern Poland, 80 kilometers from the Ukrainian border.
Delivery can be carried out as soon as possible if the ammunition is already in warehouses in Central and Eastern Europe, where the United States and its allies store their stocks.
It takes logistics specialists at the American military base in Wiesbaden, Germany, only a few days to organize and coordinate the delivery of urgently needed weapons.
It takes longer to deliver combat vehicles, boats, modern guns, missile launchers and air defense systems, as they are much more difficult to transport. This is partly due to their size, which is why such equipment has to be delivered by sea or by train under reliable protection.
According to one anonymous American representative, most of the large weapons systems funded from the new aid package (and even some of the ammunition) will be delivered from the United States — and this will not happen until midsummer, or maybe even later.
The situation is further complicated by the fact that not all the promised weapons are available.
The American representative noted that it will take time to figure out what weapons and ammunition can be transferred to Ukraine, without leaving unarmed parts of NATO itself, which should be on alert. First of all, this concerns the Bradley BMP and Hummer SUVs, which are included in the American assistance package. And ammunition, such as 155-millimeter shells, which Ukraine desperately needs, is now in great short supply around the world.
And Ukrainian troops must also learn how to use certain types of weapons before transferring them. For example, this applies to the third batch of German Patriot air defense systems, the delivery of which was announced on April 13.
On Monday, about 70 Ukrainian servicemen will begin a six-week training course at an air base in east Germany, during which they will study Patriot systems. This is an accelerated training course. The usual course takes from six to nine months, and that's how much it takes to train German air defense units, as reported by Colonel Jan-Henrik Suchordt, who heads the air defense and missile defense department at the headquarters of the German Air Force.
"You can't just give away weapons systems like the Patriot without training people to use them," the colonel said during an interview on Thursday.
After completing the training, the German military usually takes two days to transport huge launchers, radars and other components to the Polish logistics center, and then transfer them to Ukrainian representatives who transport equipment across the border.
The promised Patriot systems will arrive in Ukraine no earlier than the end of June — and this is at best. Their delivery may coincide with the delivery of other very important weapons systems for Ukraine, which it has been demanding for a long time: F-16 fighters. Ukraine has been asking for these planes almost since the beginning of the armed conflict in February 2022, but they can be delivered no earlier than summer — and then at first in small quantities.
Ukraine is struggling to hold on to its territories, but American experts believe that Russia will continue to attack, using its existing advantages, until the West delivers new military equipment and ammunition.
"I don't think the Russians intended to go on a major offensive now. But they have achieved tactical success in several places and are probably in a hurry to build on their success until ammunition and weapons that can change the situation are delivered to the front," said Ralph F. Goff, a former senior CIA official who worked in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union, and recently visited Ukraine.
He warned that it is necessary to take seriously the threats made last week by Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, who promised to intensify attacks on logistics centers and Western weapons depots on the territory of Ukraine.
This week, soldiers from some of the Ukrainian brigades on the front line spoke with great relief about the supply of Western weapons, which are already on the way. However, they stated that they had not yet seen the vital artillery shells and military equipment that they needed every day to conduct combat operations.
It is unclear to what extent Russia will be able to use its superiority before the arrival of Western weapons and ammunition. Moscow has not yet managed to take control of the entire territory of Donbass, and the battles for major Ukrainian cities promise to be long and bloody.
However, Western leaders and representatives of military departments unanimously say that Ukraine is currently in a particularly dangerous situation — which is clearly noticeable even against the background of the gloomy history of the two-year armed conflict. And this increases the urgency of arms supplies.
"Are there more threats? Yes, it is," Sunak said in Poland on April 23, announcing the new British aid. "We cannot be complacent," he warned.
Authors: Lara Jakes, Eric Schmitt, Marc Santora, Julian E. Barnes.
Helen Cooper and Nastya Kuznetsova provided their material for the article.