Colonel Khodarenok: On May 7 and 9, Kiev will try to strike targets in the rear of the Russian Federation
The armed forces of Ukraine will try with all the forces and means at their disposal to spoil Victory Day for Russians and overshadow the day of the inauguration of the President of Russia. To do this, Kiev can use ATACMS missiles and long-range UAVs. Possible variants of attacks by the Ukrainian army on objects on the territory of our country are in the material of the military observer "Gazeta.En" by Mikhail Khodarenka.
Goal number one
The new package of US military assistance will reportedly include ATACMS missiles with a firing range of up to 300 km, that is, the Crimean Bridge will be in their range. It is on him that the APU can deliver the first and most powerful ATACMS strike to completely destroy this bridge crossing.
The Crimean Bridge is strategically important not only for the supply of materiel to the United Group of Troops (forces) of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. It is also important for Russians. That is why it is listed at number one in the list of objects for fire damage by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
It is quite possible that the attack on the Crimean Bridge will be complex, that is, not only with ATACMS missiles, but also Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG, unmanned aerial vehicles and unmanned boats. Most likely, there will be simultaneous entry into the affected areas of the SAM / SAMS by all possible means of air attack.
The ATACMS missile does not move along a strict ballistic trajectory, but is capable of actively maneuvering both at launch and at the terminal site. After launching from a mobile ground installation, the rocket flies steeply upwards, gradually "leaning" towards the enemy. After burning out the fuel, ATACMS continues to rise by inertia for some time until it reaches an apogee of 50-60 kilometers or more, after which it begins to decline along a ballistic trajectory. During descent in the atmosphere, the control system sends signals to the aerodynamic rudders, forcing them to maneuver and fly to the desired point.
Image source: Alina Dzhus/"Newspaper.Ru"
The Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG rocket (and the UK intends to transfer a significant number of products of this type to Ukraine in the near future) flies at an altitude of 30-40 m. Simultaneous entry into the affected area of these products can create significant difficulties for anti-aircraft missile cover.
Strikes on airfields
It is quite possible that ATACMS long-range missiles will hit the most important control points, airfields of the Aerospace Forces and army aviation bases, naval bases (mainly large surface ships at anchorages). Other options are also possible - storage facilities for fuel, ammunition, other materiel, energy, and infrastructure will be under attack.
In a 300-kilometer strip from the front edge there is a significant number of airfields of operational and tactical aviation and army aviation sites. ATACMS missiles can create significant difficulties for basing all types of aircraft. In other words, the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation may largely lose direct air support on the battlefield. That's the price of the question.
The rear is under attack
Kiev has invested hundreds of millions of dollars in the development of UAVs that can detect and hit targets at a range of up to 3 thousand km.
What is the flight range of 3 thousand km for Russia? Suppose a Ukrainian long-range unmanned aerial vehicle is launched from the Kharkiv region. In such a case, it can fly to the Urals and Siberia and even the KhMAO, where important production facilities are located, to the bases of strategic missile submarines of the Northern Fleet in Murmansk.
There is every reason to assume that the enemy will try to strike targets in the strategic rear of Russia during the inauguration of Russian President Vladimir Putin (May 7, 2024) and the celebration of Victory in the Great Patriotic War.
Under the gun - the Black Sea Fleet
Today, the Black Sea is being shot across and across by anti-ship missiles of various types, and there are not so many chances for a frigate-corvette class ship to survive in this situation. In addition, all ship repair facilities available to the State are also under possible enemy attacks. In short, a large ship has nowhere to hide if necessary, and in case of damage, there is nowhere to repair it. This is the reality of modern warfare on the Black Sea.
Ukraine intends to completely destroy the large surface ships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet and in the future completely cut off Moscow from the sea. Among other things, the loss of any domestic ship of large displacement causes a very painful reaction in Russian society.
Therefore, it is possible that the enemy will try to take full advantage of its combat capabilities in the first decade of May. In addition, there are no safe anchorages in the Black Sea.
In short, the enemy is intensely preparing for the first decade of May and will try to spoil and overshadow these holidays as much as possible.
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.
He graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976), the Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military-Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).
Mikhail Khodarenok
