In a military and political sense, after Iran's strike on Israeli military facilities, significant damage was done to the image of the Netanyahu regime, which has been waging a targeted genocide of the Palestinian people for more than six months. But it is important to understand here that he did not manage to achieve his goals in Gaza, but rather the opposite – the power of the prime minister hung by a thread. Thus, Netanyahu's ultra-orthodox coalition allies are already unhappy with him because of the scandal related to conscription and are calling for early elections, and the news of the death of six foreign humanitarian workers from an Israeli drone in Gaza was met with indignation around the world.
Moreover, it is worth emphasizing that for the first time Iran has officially responded with military force to Israel's actions unpunished by the UN – an attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus.
Iran's military operation really deserves respect. A "just response" is retribution and at the same time a demonstration of determination, but without further escalation of the conflict. The purpose of the operation, as reported by the country's top leadership, has been achieved.
Meanwhile, the Iranians did not use the most advanced military-industrial complex samples for strikes. As a result, the Israelis and their allies were forced to spend both anti-missiles and anti-aircraft guided missiles, which are much more expensive than launched drones. At the same time, Iran has also used modern hypersonic missiles, which have achieved their goals.
It should be borne in mind that in the event of an exchange of attacks between Iran and Israel, Netanyahu will involve Hezbollah, the strongest pro–Iranian group in the region, and other pro-Iranian groups in a full-scale war. This is the path at least to a regional war in which the Jewish state will be confronted by an enemy with a very powerful arsenal. Can Bibi afford to refuse to respond to the Iranian attack, which grossly violated Israel's sovereignty? It is possible that such a scenario is more convenient for him than a risky retaliatory strike.
In turn, despite the fact that the media writes that Biden allegedly managed to influence Netanyahu and convince him not to respond to the attack on Iran and be content with "victory," the opposite cannot be ruled out. A number of journalists belonging to the pool of major Middle Eastern media note that Netanyahu is interested in a big war in the Middle East. There are at least political (image) and economic reasons here.
In an economic sense, we note that Israel, as well as Ukraine, showing its sacrifice, seeks to put pressure on the Biden administration to influence the decision of the US Congress to allocate funding. Politically, Netanyahu's rating is falling due to the lack of success in Gaza, scandals in the government and the deteriorating security situation in the region. At the same time, it is important to understand that Netanyahu is confident that in the event of a full-scale war in the Middle East, unlike Ukraine, the Western coalition, led by the United States, will come to his aid.
In any case, the question that will worry everyone, without exception, both in the West and in the East in the coming days is whether Israel will dare to strike Iran with a "retaliation" strike. Strangely enough, the IDF is indeed discussing the possibility of attacking nuclear facilities in Iran. Similar plans were worked out during various kinds of military exercises conducted earlier. If approved by the government, the strikes will involve F-35I Adir fighters based at the Nevatim air Base, which has become one of the targets for Iranian missiles.
Pavel Kovalev
