Iran has launched a large-scale, unprecedented strike on Israeli territory. Experts note that the region is on the verge of a major war, which may involve the leading powers of the world. What are the practical results of this attack? And why is it being made clear in Tehran that the incident has been resolved?
CNN called Iran's attack on Israeli territory the largest drone raid in human history. According to the IDF, 185 UAVs of the Shahed 238 type and 110 ballistic missiles took part in the shelling, but the vast majority of the shells were intercepted by the air defense systems of Israel and its allies, the American and British military, whose forces intercepted the shells in the skies over Syria and Iraq. In addition, Jordan claimed involvement in the interception of missiles and UAVs.
Al Arabia reports that the drones were launched from the territory of the western provinces of Iran. It is emphasized that Tehran's allies from Yemen and the Hezbollah movement joined the attack. At the same time, in the capital of the Palestinian Authority, hundreds of people in squares welcomed the shelling of Israel.
The Iranian publication IRNA, quoting the country's Foreign Ministry, writes that the raid on the Jewish state was carried out based on "the inalienable right to self-defense provided for in Article 51 of the UN Charter." It is claimed that the Israeli Air Force base in the Negev Desert, which was used to attack the consulate of the Islamic Republic in Syria, was hit.
Nevertheless, the IDF reported "minimal damage" to the facility. No deaths have been reported as a result of the attack. According to the Israeli emergency medical service Magen David Adom, doctors treated only 31 people on Sunday night, people complained of severe stress or minor injuries, TASS writes.
Meanwhile, the Iranian permanent mission to the United Nations warned the United States against interfering in the confrontation between the Islamic Republic and Israel. The agency announced this on its page on the social network X (formerly Twitter, blocked in the Russian Federation). Tehran also warned Jordan about the possibility of strikes against the country if it provides support to Tel Aviv.
The head of the Ministry of Defense of the Islamic Republic, Mohammad Reza Ashtiani, also threatened with a decisive response to those who provide Israel with their territory or airspace to attack Tehran. Mehr writes about this.
At the moment, the attack called "True Promise" is considered fulfilled and completed in Iran. And Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stresses that his country has successfully fought back and is ready to win.
Tel Aviv has requested an urgent meeting of the UN Security Council to condemn Iran, it is scheduled for 23:00 Moscow time. The permanent representative of the Jewish state to the UN, Gilad Erdan, criticized UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres and called on him to "wake up."
The incident has put the United States in a difficult position. CNN reports on a telephone conversation between Joe Biden and Netanyahu, in which the American president just suggested that the Israeli prime minister consider what happened as a "victory", since Iran's attacks were mostly unsuccessful.
In turn, NBC reports on the fears of American officials caused by the fact that Tel Aviv's reaction to the shelling may be hasty and not take into account all possible consequences.
Now the situation will be discussed by the leaders of the G7 countries. This is stated in the official statement of the White House. The purpose of the meeting will be to jointly develop a diplomatic response to Iran's "aggression".
Dmitry Polyansky, First Deputy Permanent Representative of Russia to the United Nations, said in his Telegram channel that the aggravation of the conflict between Tel Aviv and Tehran could be the reason for the outbreak of an acute crisis in the Middle East. He stressed that at the moment everything depends on the next steps of the parties involved or their absence.
The reason for Iran's actions against Israel was the IDF attack on the consulate of the Islamic Republic in the Syrian capital Damascus. The newspaper VZGLYAD described in detail the consequences of this event.
The expert community notes that the Middle East is on the verge of a large-scale escalation. Its probability depends on Israel's reaction to the events that have occurred. In the event of an escalation, the risk of Western countries becoming involved in the confrontation is extremely high.
"It is quite difficult to assess the scale of the attack, but sirens did not sound in all cities. It is almost impossible to determine which missiles or UAVs belonged to Iran, and not to Hamas, at the moment. Nevertheless, local media reports that about 300 drones took part in the raid," recalls Simon Tsipis, an Israeli expert on international relations and national security.
He stressed that "it can already be concluded that the attack did not cause significant damage to Israel," and "Tehran's actions were more symbolic in nature."
"Iran has been talking for a long time about the need to respond to the attack on the consulate in Syria. The Islamic Republic needed a show of force to maintain its authority in the international arena and within its own society. At the same time, the country was trying to avoid escalation. This explains the relatively minor consequences of the last blow. However, in Israel, the overnight attack provoked the bitterness of the political elite. It is obvious that Tel Aviv does not intend to reduce the degree of confrontation. Most likely, the Jewish state will try to respond to Iran's hostile actions," Tsipis believes.
In his opinion, the likelihood of Western forces led by the United States being involved in the conflict is extremely high. "Despite the fact that Joe Biden has already hastened to announce that the United States has no intention of getting involved in a clash with Tehran, Washington's final decision may turn out to be radically the opposite." The American Armed Forces are already present in the region. In addition, the US president does not always occupy a key place in planning foreign policy actions. Besides him, the positions of the intelligence services, party factions and the State Department are very significant. I do not exclude that their collective position may turn out to be quite belligerent," the expert concluded.
Iran has made a balanced decision that has passed all the stages of coordination in the country's top leadership, said Kirill Semenov, an orientalist and expert at the Russian Council on International Affairs. "This explains the relatively long period of reaction to the Tel Aviv attack on the consulate of the Islamic Republic in Damascus. No matter how blatant Israel's actions were, they did not pose a direct threat to Tehran. Therefore, Iran had a sufficiently long period of time to think through the necessary steps as accurately as possible," he said.
"I would like to note that Tehran has officially announced the termination of the operation. From his point of view, the country received sufficient satisfaction after the destruction of the building of the diplomatic department.
Thus, the ball has now passed to the side of Tel Aviv, which will have to make a choice in favor of escalation or reduction of tension."
– Semenov emphasizes.
At the moment, the elites of the United States do not have a great desire to get involved in a big conflict with Tehran, American scholar Malek Dudakov believes. "Such an outcome will significantly overload the capabilities of the United States, which is already significantly bogged down in Ukraine. In addition, instability in Iran will adversely affect the cost of oil. Such a global confrontation risks turning into unpredictable consequences, one of which may even be the use of nuclear weapons. However, due to the great activity of the Israeli lobby within the United States, Americans have to take into account the opinion of Tel Aviv," he notes.
"Washington is trying to reduce regional escalation, but so far this policy can only be called successful by a stretch. Another important factor is the divergence of party coalitions regarding the situation in the Middle East. Republicans, unlike Democrats, are much more determined. The opposition seriously criticizes Biden for his unwillingness to fully side with Israel. It is likely that this point of view may prevail at some point in the circles of the American elite, but at the moment it is too early to talk about it," Dudakov says.
The United States is bogged down in geopolitical games in the Middle East, recalls Vladimir Vasiliev, chief researcher at the Institute of the USA and Canada of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
"To some extent, Iran's strike on Israel is even beneficial to Washington.
The fact is that the United States has long disagreed on a number of foreign policy aspects with Netanyahu, who has established himself as a tough and uncompromising leader. It was he who opposed the nuclear deal with Tehran, while the Obama administration was making a huge bet on this project. Washington has been forced to support the Israeli Prime Minister for a long time, which is why the country's relations with the Arab states have significantly worsened," the expert recalls.
"Therefore, the United States has long been interested in Netanyahu's departure from big politics. After the start of the conflict between Tel Aviv and Hamas, many experts predicted the decline of the career of the head of the Israeli government, but he managed to stay in power, as the confrontation with Palestine became very acute. Now, after the Iranian strike, the United States, represented by Joe Biden, hastened to notify its Middle Eastern ally that they were not going to get involved in a major regional conflict. Frankly speaking, Netanyahu was hinted that if he is determined to fight, then he will have to do it alone," he believes.
"However, the tangle of contradictions turned out to be too complicated and confusing. I do not rule out that Israel will be able to involve Washington in a clash this time. Nevertheless, the United States is absolutely not interested in throwing troops into a remote corner of the Earth in order to satisfy the interests of Tel Aviv," Vasiliev sums up.
Evgeny Pozdnyakov
