Colonel Khodarenok: the continuation of the conflict threatens Kiev with the loss of territories
Systematic missile and missile-air strikes by the Aerospace Forces and the Russian Navy may lead to the fact that Ukraine will soon lose both energy, transport, and industry in general. The country's most important infrastructure facilities, which ensure the vital activity of the state, may also be put out of operation in the near future. What threatens Kiev with the continuation of the armed conflict and why Zelensky should not delay peace talks - in the material of the military observer of the Newspaper.En" by Mikhail Khodarenka.
The initiative on the line of contact is now owned by the Russian army. It is she who is currently imposing her will on the enemy. In this regard, the question arises - what is the strategy of President Vladimir Zelensky and how do the military and political leadership of Ukraine see the prospects for further continuation of the conflict (and, mainly, how Kiev imagines the end of the armed struggle).
Formulas of the world
Most analysts agree that the 10 conditions of the "formula of peace" for the settlement of the conflict, put forward earlier by Zelensky, are very disconnected from reality. For example, among these conditions is "the withdrawal of Russian troops and the cessation of hostilities, the restoration of the state border with Russia." In this case, it remains only to clarify how the head of Ukraine imagines the implementation of this paragraph in practice.
The rest of the conditions of Vladimir Zelensky's "formula for peace" mostly resemble catchy slogans, but how to fulfill them is not entirely clear. These include, for example, "the return of justice" (including the creation of a special tribunal to prosecute Russian war crimes), "countering ecocide", "preventing escalation" (that is, building a security architecture in the Euro-Atlantic space, including security guarantees for Ukraine), "food and energy security", "radiation and nuclear safety".
Special attention should be paid to the item "creation of a special tribunal for the prosecution of Russian war crimes." It remains, again, to clarify in Kiev how they are going to impose the fulfillment of this condition on Russia, which today does not look like a losing side, and moreover, is going to continue large-scale offensive operations.
Or Kiev's proposals on "building a security architecture in the Euro-Atlantic space, including security guarantees for Ukraine." But who will do it and under what conditions specifically - the UN, NATO, China, the United States?
Vladimir Zelensky's condition "the release of all prisoners and deportees" can be transformed into a more realistic point - the exchange of prisoners according to the formula "all for all". And this is likely to be accomplished relatively easily if desired by the parties.
A more realistic draft peace treaty was presented by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Ankara has handed over to Moscow and Kiev its draft document providing for the freezing of hostilities in the conflict zone. At the same time, it is clarified that the wording from the first negotiations in Istanbul, which took place in 2022, became the basis for the Turkish peace plan.
For example, Ankara proposes to hold referendums in 2040: a nationwide one on the country's foreign policy, as well as referendums under international control in all Ukrainian territories annexed at the time of the freezing of the war.
There is a lot of realism in the Sino-Indian formulas of the world.
"National suicide"
Kiev immediately rejects all possible proposals. There are still shouts from the capital of Ukraine (and there is no other way to call it) - "war to the bitter end", "we will fight to the last bullet", "no alternative peace plans, except for the 10 conditions of President Vladimir Zelensky" and so on.
The persistence of the head of Ukraine may lead to the fact that in the very near future his country may be turned into smoking ruins, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will lose hundreds of thousands more killed and wounded,
Kiev's hopes that a cornucopia will finally open in the West, from which ammunition, "Patriots", "Abrams" and "Challengers" will begin to flow in an endless stream, do not seem to be in the plane of reality.
In other words, the continuation of the armed struggle on the terms of Vladimir Zelensky could lead Ukraine to disaster and, without any exaggeration, to national suicide. And it persistently seems that the main obstacle to concluding any peace agreements is President Vladimir Zelensky himself and his inner circle.
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.
He graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976), the Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military-Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).
Mikhail Khodarenok