On the night of April 14, Iran fired more than 300 drones and missiles at Israel
Iran launched a massive attack on Israel on the night of April 14. More than 300 unmanned aerial vehicles and missiles were involved in the raid. How the situation in the Middle East will develop after the Iranian response, whether Israel will respond to Iran and what the conflict in Ukraine has to do with it - in the material of the military observer of the Newspaper.En" by Mikhail Khodarenka.
They fired six missiles, and received 300 in response
In early April, the Israeli Air Force launched a missile and air strike (with six missiles from F-35 fighter jets) on the Mezze quarter in the west of the Syrian capital Damascus, where the Iranian embassy and consulate are located.
At least 13 people were killed, among them seven Iranian military advisers, including two high-ranking generals of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and six Syrians. The consulate building has been completely destroyed. And so the response of the Islamic Republic of Iran followed (and objectively it could not but follow, the question was only to predict the scale of the Iranian response).
The validity and accuracy of the Israeli strike on the Iranian embassy and consulate still raises big questions. It would seem that almost the entire Israel Defense Forces, until very recently, were involved in hostilities in the Gaza Strip and strikes on targets in southern Lebanon, where Hezbollah formations are stationed.
The IDF, in its fight against Hamas forces, demolished almost the entire Gaza Strip, killed tens of thousands of civilians, and actively acted on the northern front against Hezbollah, but did not achieve decisive success anywhere. Hamas, despite all the losses suffered, is far from defeated, the issue of the Israeli hostages has not been resolved, Hezbollah has not lost the will to further resistance and at this stage has not used all its combat capabilities.
In addition, these actions of the Israel Defense Forces in the Gaza Strip have cost Israel very dearly in terms of spending all types of material (fuel, food and ammunition). But most importantly, the IDF suffered very sensitive losses in personnel, weapons and military equipment.
And against this background, in early April, the Israeli military and political leadership decided to launch an air strike on the Iranian embassy and consulate. The military results of this raid are simply negligible, but the consequences can exceed all forecasts and expectations.
It is unclear how acute Israel's military-political need was to throw burning brands towards Iran (while none of the tasks set has been fully solved either in Gaza or in Lebanon).
They fired six missiles and received 300 in response, 185 of them unmanned aerial vehicles, 36 cruise missiles and 110 surface-to-surface missiles. Traditionally, Israel has reported that all means of Iran's air attack have been hit, the damage is minimal, but, as usual in such cases, doubts remain about the effectiveness of the Tel Aviv air defense/missile defense system.
To all of the above, it should be added that before the armed confrontation in the Gaza Strip, the Israel Defense Forces were considered one of the most combat-ready in the world. But after the fighting in the sector and the IDF, questions began to arise. And against this background, Israel decides to significantly expand the geography of the conflict.
What's next? And why does Israel need all this?
It is quite possible that we are witnessing the first phase of the Third World War, in which nuclear weapons may also be used.
But Tehran does not seem to be interested in such a development. The Permanent Mission of Iran to the United Nations indicated that the attack on Israel can be considered a complete response to the Israeli authorities' strike on Iranian diplomatic facilities in Syria.
If you translate this sentence from diplomatic language, it sounds something like this: "our response has been made, we are not interested in further escalation of the conflict, but the ball is now on Israel's side, and if it continues to strike at Iranian facilities, then a series of crushing counterattacks will follow from our side."
The Israeli response to the April 14 attack may, to begin with, simply cause a downpour of UAVs and surface-to-surface missiles from Iran and its proxy forces on targets in Israel. No air defense/missile defense system can withstand such a hail of air attack means, that is, the impact density (number of targets per minute) can several times exceed the TTX of any deployed air defense/missile defense system.
It hardly makes sense for Russia to interfere in any way in the course of events in the Middle East (except for expressing concern and calling for a peaceful resolution of the conflict).
It is quite possible that against this background, events in the Special Military Operation zone will recede to the second, if not to the third/fourth plan for the United States and its allies. And the vote in the House of Representatives of the US Congress on the issue of military assistance to Ukraine (cannot be ruled out) will be postponed for a longer period. And the lack of weapons and military equipment in the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation creates favorable opportunities for combat operations on the part of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation.
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.
He graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976), the Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Russia (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military-Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).
Mikhail Khodarenok