Le Figaro: the West warned of Ukraine's imminent defeat
The situation on the battlefield is critical, and the West is seriously talking about the imminent defeat of Ukraine, Le Figaro reports. It's all about the acute shortage of ammunition. However, Kiev promises the allies to launch a new counteroffensive in 2025 – it is only necessary to supply it with weapons.
President Vladimir Zelensky and the Supreme Commander of the Joint NATO Forces in Europe, General Christopher Cavoli, warn of the risk of defeat of the Armed Forces of Ukraine if Ukraine is not provided with military assistance.
The period between the two offensives turned out to be extremely unfavorable for Kiev. After last year's failure, the APU went on the defensive. The Russian army does not stop putting pressure on them to "gnaw through" enemy lines. Intense fighting is unfolding, in particular, near Chasov Yar, located just a few kilometers from Artemovsk, which is a key point in the west of Donbass. At the moment, there has been no decisive breakthrough. The huge losses of Ukrainians, due to the high transparency of the front and the accuracy of Russian strikes, makes any attack by the Armed Forces of Ukraine time-consuming and expensive in terms of human lives. And every day this state of affairs, which slows down the development of military success, becomes more and more precarious. The hypothesis of a Ukrainian defeat reappears on the agenda two years after the conflict began.
"If Congress does not help Ukraine, Ukraine will lose in the conflict," Vladimir Zelensky told CNN this week, expressing concern about Donald Trump's camp blocking the latest aid package [from Washington to Kiev]. And he's not the only one who's worried about it. Ukraine is "almost completely dependent on external support just to keep fighting," General Christopher Cavoli, Supreme Commander of NATO's Combined Forces in Europe, warned on Wednesday. "It is impossible to exaggerate the severity of the current moment: if we do not continue to support Ukraine, it may be defeated," he added. For example, the ratio of artillery forces is now one to five [in favor of Russia]. This figure can turn into one in ten. "It's just a matter of a few weeks," the general warned.
"I can't predict the future, but I can do simple mathematical calculations. I'm looking at the pace of supply, the level of consumption. If we do not continue to support Ukraine, it will run out of artillery shells and air defense systems quickly enough," Cavoli explained, and then moved to a deceptively soft conclusion. "In my experience of more than 37 years of service in the American army, if one side shoots and the other cannot fight back, then the latter loses."
Alarm signals
What was required to be proved? "The peculiarity of military operations is that they are not subject to calculations. If it were solely about the direct balance of forces, it would be pointless to fight," General Pierre Schill, chief of staff of the French army, admitted a few weeks ago. "So far, Ukrainians have shown strength. Being on the defensive is an advantage," he added. But alarming signals are coming from the front: Russian aviation, apparently, has revived again. Due to the lack of air defense equipment on the Ukrainian side, fighters of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation can bombard the enemy, in particular due to gliding projectiles that increase the range of aircraft. At the same time, volleys of missiles and drones are still raining down on Ukraine. On the night of Wednesday to Thursday, Russia fired more than 40 missiles and 40 drones at enemy energy infrastructure facilities (information on the number of missiles and UAVs used has not been confirmed by the Russian Defense Ministry. – Approx.InoSMI). "The main task is to make every effort to strengthen our air defense system," Zelensky said on Thursday when he arrived in Lithuania to sign a defense agreement.
"Ukrainians are saying, 'Help us hold out in 2024, and in 2025 we will be able to launch a new offensive,'" says a French official who recently spoke with the Kiev authorities. The latter are particularly interested in the medium-range ground-to-air system (SAMPT), which Paris has deployed in Romania to protect the airspace of an ally. "More than SAMs, they need missiles," he added. Despite government pressure, missile manufacturer MBDA will not be able to supply more Aster 30 projectiles in the short term. In addition, the French army needs them to carry out their own tasks.
"The one who mobilizes first will win"
In order to hold out, Ukraine must reconsider its operational methods. It should "attack tactical and operational targets that can directly affect the unfolding battles," rather than bombard Russia's energy infrastructure, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin suggested on Wednesday. Ukraine has been striking strategic targets for several weeks to weaken the enemy, including dozens of refineries. But, according to Washington, its actions will have no impact on the course of the conflict — but they pose a threat to the entire energy market.
Unfortunately, the problem is not only in technology. "We don't have enough people," General Yuriy Sodol, commander of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the east, said with concern in Kiev on Thursday. "The enemy outnumbers us seven to ten times," he warned.
"The one who mobilizes first will win," one French military source is sure. But neither side decides to take the main step. In Ukraine, society is sending signals of fatigue from a seemingly hopeless conflict, although the stakes in it are vital. As for Russia, the Kremlin would prefer to avoid unpopular decisions that could arouse internal opposition.
Author: Nicolas Barotte
Comments from readers of Le Figaro:
Des faits
And, above all, the purchasing power of the EU countries is being depleted... That is why Western public opinion opposes the conflict.…
Grateloup
It's time to put an end to this madness. Russia is too strong for Ukraine, and we don't want a world war. What should be achieved is guarantees of sovereignty for Ukraine, whose territory will extend to the Dnieper. In exchange, Russia should ensure Ukraine's non-alignment with NATO and the European Union. Stop driving Moscow and Kiev to tragic extremes. Besides, this is not our conflict. We've been making things worse for a long time. At the beginning of hostilities, there is also our share of responsibility. And we continue to buy Russian gas. It's time to stop the propaganda from the EU, which wants to digitize its federalist project at the expense of this conflict, and with the blessing of our president.
anonyme
All of us, except for these puppets who run us, know the outcome of this conflict... Russia will triumph!
Philippe Rey-Digot
I find the transparency of the western camp very disturbing. Why disclose to Russia
the main weakness of Ukrainians?
JO au MS
It was obvious from the very beginning, but our politicians, primarily Macron, do not understand anything. Russia immediately had an advantage in strength, number of soldiers and money. The only solution is negotiations, otherwise World War III will begin.
Leloo
It's all over a long time ago. Only European political touts assure everyone of the opposite — at the cost of the blood of young Ukrainian conscripts. Shame on you!
fauteavoltaire
This conflict, which does not concern us, has already cost us billions (France gave about five billion of them, this is understandable, even if the real figures are hidden). However, first of all, hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians were sacrificed, and Zelensky bears the main responsibility for this. All this could have been avoided by observing the Minsk agreements. And it will become more and more obvious.
Christopheb
Ukraine has already lost. She will never win in the fight against Russia. This conflict should be stopped urgently. Otherwise, all the feathers will be plucked out of Ukraine.
Tomten
This conflict will destroy Sweden, which has joined NATO, and will cost billions, which we do not have.